I ain't gonna nitpick with ya.
All I am saying is not just warheads that count but also the amount of materials and China has the potential to possess large amount of materials. End of Story.
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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I ain't gonna nitpick with ya.
All I am saying is not just warheads that count but also the amount of materials and China has the potential to possess large amount of materials. End of Story.
escobar
Brigadier
Bigger GDP means you have more resources to develop and build more and also, you will worry more as you are richer, this is very obvious concept, I am surprised you didn't know that
Why it must necessarily imply that china has thousand warheads? That just means that China has the financial means. That's all.
What's wrong with having opinion, even nobody knows exactly, I have a right to say my opinion, do you have any problem with that?
Again, why not 5000 or 10000 warheads?
Then, why you expect china to increase the arsenal to 1000?Who said I didn't believe that 200-300 nukes is effective ? did I say that ? you did
escobar
Brigadier
We were talking about deterrence and it is about the warhead you currently have, not about the ones you could have.
Did I ever say china can't?
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antiterror13
Brigadier
I admire your "boldness"
Because 1,000 is a number believed to have enough warheads at your disposal to destroy the enemies and the world. 200 or even 400 is not enough considering the US have massive technology advantages (i.e first strike capability to destroy nukes) and also massive warhead numbers.
5,000 warheads is not necessary, too many and too costly. The US also wanted to reduce the number of warheads to just 1,000 (so hopefully you understand why 1,000), but Russia didn't want to .... and it is understandable as Russia conventional forces is lag behind the US in a big big way. But China conventional forces is extremely strong, especially land forces
China now has huge resources and advanced technical capability. And China now also has lots to "lose", much much richer than in 1980.
It is extremely hard to imagine that China would maintain the warhead number the same since 1980 .... thats all
Thats my opinions, you have a right to disagree, I'd respect that
I won't discuss anymore regarding this issue with you ... its done
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To "guesstimate" how many nuclear warheads China has today it is important to take into account:
- the latest public reliable expert estimates
- evidence of relevant unique scientific and industrial developments in China
- evidence of relevant PLA Second Artillery funding and staffing
- PLA Second Artillery doctrine
- latest worldwide developments in nuclear weapons technology, possession, employment, and their counters such as ABM systems and how China is likely to adapt to them
Without considering all of the above a number would be a weak "guesstimate" or even just a wild guess. Even after considering all of the above there is a wide range of realistic likelihoods in terms of warhead numbers so let's just have fun opinionating rather than trying to preach as if any of us know more than we actually do.
- the latest public reliable expert estimates
- evidence of relevant unique scientific and industrial developments in China
- evidence of relevant PLA Second Artillery funding and staffing
- PLA Second Artillery doctrine
- latest worldwide developments in nuclear weapons technology, possession, employment, and their counters such as ABM systems and how China is likely to adapt to them
Without considering all of the above a number would be a weak "guesstimate" or even just a wild guess. Even after considering all of the above there is a wide range of realistic likelihoods in terms of warhead numbers so let's just have fun opinionating rather than trying to preach as if any of us know more than we actually do.
escobar
Brigadier
For china, Deterrence is not Warfighting.
Since 1967 US reduced its nuclear arsenal stockpile by 85% (Russia by more than 80%). The New START Treaty is limiting U.S. and Russian deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 by 2018. US wanting to further reduce arsenal to 1000 (independently of any reductions by Russia) is the proof that china has made a wise choice to not having a MAD arsenal.
Russia has signed the new START treaty and the new reduction to 1000 is supposed to be an independent move from US. There is a great chance that Russia will follow suit.
And you are now insinuating that China conventional forces, especially its land forces are stronger than Russia ones.
Two main things from your posts. Denial & Applauding.
1)China cannot possibly have more than 200 to 300 warheads. No way, No how.
2)Applauding China have limited arsenal. It's right way to go.
My feeling is you trying to run some kind agenda/campaign here. So I gonna take your posts with grains of salt.
Bye.
escobar
Brigadier
Where did I ever said it is impossible for china to have more than 300 warheads? Everyone agree that they could expand "significantly" their arsenal, but that is not the question. The question is: have they done it? or are they doing it now?
Anyway I notice this: Since US and Russia started to signed START treaty, china has never been invited to join. So do we believe that US and Russia would agree to reduce their arsenal so drastically if they have the slightest doubt that china is doing the opposite?
I still have said nothing about what I personally think about the limited deterrence, So how could I being applauding?
Instead of hoping for a MAD arsenal, we had better try to understand why Chinese leaders have chosen (or seem to continue) to adopt a limited arsenal for so long.
If I were among those claiming without solid proof that china has up to 3000 warheads hidden inside those 5000 km underground tunnels, you wouldn't have say that.
Do you mean that US should not be deterred from attacking these countries? I would think that the mayhem resulting from the 2003 invasion of Iraq should be enough not to go out to destroy another country. Unfortunately we saw the destruction of the Libyan state....
I well remember reading an editorial in Aviation Week more than twenty years ago that said that all nuclear weapons should be abolished.
China Tests New Long-Range Missile with Two Guided Warheads
Latest DF-41 flight test indicates deployment near
BY:
August 18, 2015 5:00 am
China conducted a flight test this month of its newest long-range missile that U.S. intelligence agencies say lofted two independently-targeted simulated nuclear warheads, according to defense officials.
The launch of the DF-41 road-mobile missile Aug. 6 was the fourth time the new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) has been test-fired in three years, and indicates that the weapon capable of hitting U.S. cities with nuclear warheads is nearing deployment.
The DF-41, with a range of between 6,835 miles and 7,456 miles, is viewed by the Pentagon as Beijing’s most potent nuclear missile and one of several new long-range missiles in development or being deployed.
As with earlier DF-41 flight tests, Pentagon spokesmen had no direct comment. A defense official, however, told the Washington Free Beacon: “We do not comment on PRC weapons tests but we do monitor Chinese military modernization carefully.”
The Pentagon has said it expects the new missile to become operational as early as this year.
Deployment of the DF-41 also could coincide with China’s first patrols, slated to begin this year, of submarines armed with nuclear-tipped JL-2 missiles.
The Aug. 6 test is viewed as significant by U.S. intelligence agencies because it confirmed the DF-41’s multiple-warhead capability, said defense officials familiar with analyses of the test.
Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said the repeated flight tests indicate the DF-41 is “nearing operational status.”
“The mobile and solid-fueled DF-41 will be the second MIRV-equipped ICBM to enter PLA Second Artillery Corps service after the currently deployed, liquid-fueled and silo-launched DF-5B,” Fisher said.
“The bottom line is that China potentially is beginning a new phase in which its nuclear warhead numbers will be increasing rapidly,” he said.
The Pentagon’s latest annual report on China’s military, published in May, stated that the DF-41 is “possibly capable of carrying MIRVs”—the acronym for multiple, independently-targetable reentry vehicles. The Pentagon calls the DF-41 the CSS-X-20 missile.
MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles) are considered state-of-the-art nuclear warhead technology because their use vastly increases the potential killing power of a single missile.
The annual Pentagon report states that China’s missile force, called the Second Artillery Corps, “continues to modernize its nuclear forces by enhancing its silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and adding more survivable, mobile delivery systems.”
When deployed, the DF-41 is expected to significantly enhance China’s force of between 50 and 60 ICBMs that include DF-5, mobile DF-31, DF-31A, and submarine-launched JL-2 nuclear missiles.
Mark Stokes, a former Pentagon expert on China, said the DF-41 “marks a significant evolution in the Second Artillery’s force modernization program.”
“The DF-41 is one of a number of PLA ballistic missile systems in the advanced stages of research and development,” Stokes, now with the Project 2049 Institute, said. “Few details on deployment plans technical characteristics are currently available. Once fully operational, the DF-41 is expected to be the PLA’s most sophisticated ICBM to date.”
China’s first suspected multiple warhead flight test for the DF-41 was carried out in December 2014, when an unknown number of dummy warheads were thought to have been used. Earlier DF-41 flight tests took place in December 2013 and July 2012.
The new multiple-warhead missile is likely to renew debate over the size of China’s nuclear arsenal. Current U.S. intelligence estimates put the total number of Chinese warheads at around 240 warheads. Other analysts, however, say China’s warhead arsenal is far larger, with perhaps as many as 1,500 warheads, and base their assessments on the growing size of China’s missile forces, the addition of multiple warhead technology, and its large-scale nuclear material production capabilities.
The DF-41 is assessed by U.S. intelligence agencies as being able to carry up to 10 warheads on a single missile.
The location of the latest test was not disclosed. Past DF-41 flight tests, however, were carried out from the Wuzhai Missile and Space Testing facility, located about 250 miles southwest of Beijing.
Little is known publicly or within the U.S. government about China’s strategic nuclear arsenal, because Beijing has refused for decades to engage in international nuclear talks, fearing any discussion would reveal information that could undermine its deterrent forces.
The mobile DF-41 is considered especially lethal because it can be driven on roads and easily hidden prior to launch, making it difficult to target.
The Pentagon is developing a new system called Prompt Global Strike that will be designed to locate and destroy mobile missiles, along with other difficult-to-find targets, in 30 minutes or less.
According to a senior intelligence analyst with the Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center, China’s shift to multiple-warhead missiles is aimed at ensuring the survival of its nuclear deterrent.
“MIRVs provide operational flexibility that a single warhead does not,” Lee Fuell, an analyst for the National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC), told the congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
“Specifically, they enable more efficient targeting, allowing more targets to be hit with fewer missiles, more missiles to be employed per target, or a larger reserve of weapons held against contingency,” Fuell said.
China is expected to use a combination of three long-range missiles “as MIRVs become available, simultaneously increasing their ability to engage desired targets while holding a greater number of weapons in reserve.”
The China commission’s latest annual report stated the DF-41 could be deployed as early as 2015, and could carry up to 10 MIRVs with enough range “to target the entire continental United States.” The report added that the DF–5 and the DF–31A also are being modified to carry MIRVs.
Concerns over China’s multiple warhead missile attacks were heightened after Chinese state-run media in October 2013 published a report and graphic showing the effect of a submarine-launched, five-warhead nuclear strike on Los Angeles.
The series of articles made the alarming claim that Chinese nuclear attacks could kill up to 12 million Americans with blasts on the West Coast and deadly fallout that would then drift eastward.
China gained technology for launching multiple warheads from the United States during the Clinton administration. After the 1990s White House loosened controls on U.S. exports of satellite technology, American companies, including Motorola, Space Systems Loral, and Hughes Electronics gave China valuable missile know-how.
A classified report by NASIC dated Dec. 10, 1996, stated that China copied a multiple satellite launcher, called a “smart dispenser” from Motorola that allowed China to launch several Iridium satellites from a single Chinese rocket booster.
“An initial NASIC study determined that a minimally-modified [smart dispenser] stage could be used on a ballistic missile as a multiple-reentry vehicle, post-boost vehicle (PBV),” the report said.
Lockheed Martin was fined $13 million by the State Department in 2000 for improperly providing China with rocket motor technology used to maneuver multiple-warhead vehicles.
In addition to the DF-41, DF-31, DF-31A, and JL-2 long-range missiles, China also is developing a near long-range system called the DF-31B.
The Free Beacon first the DF-31B in October after it was flight tested on Sept. 25, 2014.
The DF-31B is also expected to carry multiple warheads.
A U.S.-based Chinese media outlet, Duowei News, reported last week that China is expected to show off the new DF-31B during a World War II anniversary ceremony in Beijing set for Sept. 3.
In addition to nuclear ballistic missiles, China is also developing maneuvering hypersonic strike vehicles that travel along the earth’s atmosphere and can avoid missile defenses.
China’s government had no immediate comment to the latest test.
In December, the Chinese Defense Ministry confirmed the DF-41 test saying it was a scientific exercise and was not targeting other countries.
Fisher, the China military expert, said the sharp increase in warheads is prompting new questions about whether China is seeking nuclear parity with the United States or eventually will opt for nuclear superiority.
Also, a larger warhead arsenal may signal China’s plans to jettison its self-declared defensive nuclear posture, and could signal that Beijing will eventually agree to coordinating nuclear strike plans against the United States with Russia, Fisher said.
“With their continued rapid development of multiple types of intercontinental, intermediate, and medium range nuclear missiles, it is clear that China and Russia have no intention of adopting the Obama administration’s dreams of achieving ‘nuclear zero,’” Fisher said.
“It is also time for the United States to reverse such policies that amount to unilateral disarmament and build a larger and more modern nuclear arsenal sufficient to deter both China and Russia.”
Latest DF-41 flight test indicates deployment near
BY:
August 18, 2015 5:00 am
China conducted a flight test this month of its newest long-range missile that U.S. intelligence agencies say lofted two independently-targeted simulated nuclear warheads, according to defense officials.
The launch of the DF-41 road-mobile missile Aug. 6 was the fourth time the new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) has been test-fired in three years, and indicates that the weapon capable of hitting U.S. cities with nuclear warheads is nearing deployment.
The DF-41, with a range of between 6,835 miles and 7,456 miles, is viewed by the Pentagon as Beijing’s most potent nuclear missile and one of several new long-range missiles in development or being deployed.
As with earlier DF-41 flight tests, Pentagon spokesmen had no direct comment. A defense official, however, told the Washington Free Beacon: “We do not comment on PRC weapons tests but we do monitor Chinese military modernization carefully.”
The Pentagon has said it expects the new missile to become operational as early as this year.
Deployment of the DF-41 also could coincide with China’s first patrols, slated to begin this year, of submarines armed with nuclear-tipped JL-2 missiles.
The Aug. 6 test is viewed as significant by U.S. intelligence agencies because it confirmed the DF-41’s multiple-warhead capability, said defense officials familiar with analyses of the test.
Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said the repeated flight tests indicate the DF-41 is “nearing operational status.”
“The mobile and solid-fueled DF-41 will be the second MIRV-equipped ICBM to enter PLA Second Artillery Corps service after the currently deployed, liquid-fueled and silo-launched DF-5B,” Fisher said.
“The bottom line is that China potentially is beginning a new phase in which its nuclear warhead numbers will be increasing rapidly,” he said.
The Pentagon’s latest annual report on China’s military, published in May, stated that the DF-41 is “possibly capable of carrying MIRVs”—the acronym for multiple, independently-targetable reentry vehicles. The Pentagon calls the DF-41 the CSS-X-20 missile.
MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles) are considered state-of-the-art nuclear warhead technology because their use vastly increases the potential killing power of a single missile.
The annual Pentagon report states that China’s missile force, called the Second Artillery Corps, “continues to modernize its nuclear forces by enhancing its silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and adding more survivable, mobile delivery systems.”
When deployed, the DF-41 is expected to significantly enhance China’s force of between 50 and 60 ICBMs that include DF-5, mobile DF-31, DF-31A, and submarine-launched JL-2 nuclear missiles.
Mark Stokes, a former Pentagon expert on China, said the DF-41 “marks a significant evolution in the Second Artillery’s force modernization program.”
“The DF-41 is one of a number of PLA ballistic missile systems in the advanced stages of research and development,” Stokes, now with the Project 2049 Institute, said. “Few details on deployment plans technical characteristics are currently available. Once fully operational, the DF-41 is expected to be the PLA’s most sophisticated ICBM to date.”
China’s first suspected multiple warhead flight test for the DF-41 was carried out in December 2014, when an unknown number of dummy warheads were thought to have been used. Earlier DF-41 flight tests took place in December 2013 and July 2012.
The new multiple-warhead missile is likely to renew debate over the size of China’s nuclear arsenal. Current U.S. intelligence estimates put the total number of Chinese warheads at around 240 warheads. Other analysts, however, say China’s warhead arsenal is far larger, with perhaps as many as 1,500 warheads, and base their assessments on the growing size of China’s missile forces, the addition of multiple warhead technology, and its large-scale nuclear material production capabilities.
The DF-41 is assessed by U.S. intelligence agencies as being able to carry up to 10 warheads on a single missile.
The location of the latest test was not disclosed. Past DF-41 flight tests, however, were carried out from the Wuzhai Missile and Space Testing facility, located about 250 miles southwest of Beijing.
Little is known publicly or within the U.S. government about China’s strategic nuclear arsenal, because Beijing has refused for decades to engage in international nuclear talks, fearing any discussion would reveal information that could undermine its deterrent forces.
The mobile DF-41 is considered especially lethal because it can be driven on roads and easily hidden prior to launch, making it difficult to target.
The Pentagon is developing a new system called Prompt Global Strike that will be designed to locate and destroy mobile missiles, along with other difficult-to-find targets, in 30 minutes or less.
According to a senior intelligence analyst with the Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center, China’s shift to multiple-warhead missiles is aimed at ensuring the survival of its nuclear deterrent.
“MIRVs provide operational flexibility that a single warhead does not,” Lee Fuell, an analyst for the National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC), told the congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
“Specifically, they enable more efficient targeting, allowing more targets to be hit with fewer missiles, more missiles to be employed per target, or a larger reserve of weapons held against contingency,” Fuell said.
China is expected to use a combination of three long-range missiles “as MIRVs become available, simultaneously increasing their ability to engage desired targets while holding a greater number of weapons in reserve.”
The China commission’s latest annual report stated the DF-41 could be deployed as early as 2015, and could carry up to 10 MIRVs with enough range “to target the entire continental United States.” The report added that the DF–5 and the DF–31A also are being modified to carry MIRVs.
Concerns over China’s multiple warhead missile attacks were heightened after Chinese state-run media in October 2013 published a report and graphic showing the effect of a submarine-launched, five-warhead nuclear strike on Los Angeles.
The series of articles made the alarming claim that Chinese nuclear attacks could kill up to 12 million Americans with blasts on the West Coast and deadly fallout that would then drift eastward.
China gained technology for launching multiple warheads from the United States during the Clinton administration. After the 1990s White House loosened controls on U.S. exports of satellite technology, American companies, including Motorola, Space Systems Loral, and Hughes Electronics gave China valuable missile know-how.
A classified report by NASIC dated Dec. 10, 1996, stated that China copied a multiple satellite launcher, called a “smart dispenser” from Motorola that allowed China to launch several Iridium satellites from a single Chinese rocket booster.
“An initial NASIC study determined that a minimally-modified [smart dispenser] stage could be used on a ballistic missile as a multiple-reentry vehicle, post-boost vehicle (PBV),” the report said.
Lockheed Martin was fined $13 million by the State Department in 2000 for improperly providing China with rocket motor technology used to maneuver multiple-warhead vehicles.
In addition to the DF-41, DF-31, DF-31A, and JL-2 long-range missiles, China also is developing a near long-range system called the DF-31B.
The Free Beacon first the DF-31B in October after it was flight tested on Sept. 25, 2014.
The DF-31B is also expected to carry multiple warheads.
A U.S.-based Chinese media outlet, Duowei News, reported last week that China is expected to show off the new DF-31B during a World War II anniversary ceremony in Beijing set for Sept. 3.
In addition to nuclear ballistic missiles, China is also developing maneuvering hypersonic strike vehicles that travel along the earth’s atmosphere and can avoid missile defenses.
China’s government had no immediate comment to the latest test.
In December, the Chinese Defense Ministry confirmed the DF-41 test saying it was a scientific exercise and was not targeting other countries.
Fisher, the China military expert, said the sharp increase in warheads is prompting new questions about whether China is seeking nuclear parity with the United States or eventually will opt for nuclear superiority.
Also, a larger warhead arsenal may signal China’s plans to jettison its self-declared defensive nuclear posture, and could signal that Beijing will eventually agree to coordinating nuclear strike plans against the United States with Russia, Fisher said.
“With their continued rapid development of multiple types of intercontinental, intermediate, and medium range nuclear missiles, it is clear that China and Russia have no intention of adopting the Obama administration’s dreams of achieving ‘nuclear zero,’” Fisher said.
“It is also time for the United States to reverse such policies that amount to unilateral disarmament and build a larger and more modern nuclear arsenal sufficient to deter both China and Russia.”
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