China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Broccoli]

As mentioned before China's plutonium production was monitored very closely and what they produced is not going to allow Chinese to manufacture huge arsenal... No bucks, no Buck Rogers.

"URRW" style warhead would be most likely better suited for Chinese doctrine.

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People should also remember that W88 is very old design from 1980s (supposedly hard to maintain) and therefore cold war vintage. Saying that it's pinnacle of nuclear warhead design is simply not true.

 

[antiterror13]

As mentioned before China's plutonium production was monitored very closely and what they produced is not going to allow Chinese to manufacture huge arsenal... No bucks, no Buck Rogers.

"URRW" style warhead would be most likely better suited for Chinese doctrine.

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People should also remember that W88 is very old design from 1980s (supposedly hard to maintain) and therefore cold war vintage. Saying that it's pinnacle of nuclear warhead design is simply not true.

who monitors China's plutonium production? nobody!, even nobody is sure how much plutonium China has

It is true W88 is an old design, but there is no newer warhead design, so it is safe to say it is the most advanced warhead design, even old

 

[escobar]

General perception is China "only" has ~400 nukes ... and the number stays the same since 1980s which is very surprising, just to put into a perspective, China' gdp in 1980s is roughly only ~$200B or 2% of current GDP

What is the link between GDP and the number of warheads?

The thing is, nobody knows (apart from Chinese elites) how many warheads (nuke) China has...
Honestly I don't believe the number, I tend to believe closer to ~1,000 (may not all in operational state).

First you say nobody knows, and then you believe it is closer to 1000. Why not 5000? or 10000? "Chinese officials have already stated that china possesses the smallest nuclear weapons arsenal among the so-called P5 states". The reason you want them to have more than that, is that you don't believe their deterrence is effective with 200-300.

 

[Broccoli]

who monitors China's plutonium production? nobody!, even nobody is sure how much plutonium China has

It is true W88 is an old design, but there is no newer warhead design, so it is safe to say it is the most advanced warhead design, even old

Plutonium production cannot be hidden because it leaves marks on air and environment. Centrifuges enriching HEU for weapons are bigger worry (as we have seen with Iran dealings) than reactors because those are far easier to hide.

U-235 pit = bigger and heavier warhead meaning less warheads per missile but cheaper to manufacture.

Pu-239 pit = smaller and lighter weapon but expensive to manufacture as you need reactor and therefore impossible to hide.

If Chinese have designed something like URRW and enrich U-235 in secret then they can increase number of warheads but as far we know all modern warheads Chinese designed in 80s and 90s use Pu-239 pits.

 

[Broccoli]

I'd like to also add that weapons like W88 use toxic materials in their designs and American RRW project was supposed to remove those materials and therefore making warheads heavier but safer and more reliable.

34:00 onwards.

 

[antiterror13]

What is the link between GDP and the number of warheads?
First you say nobody knows, and then you believe it is closer to 1000. Why not 5000? or 10000? "Chinese officials have already stated that china possesses the smallest nuclear weapons arsenal among the so-called P5 states". The reason you want them to have more than that, is that you don't believe their deterrence is effective with 200-300.

Bigger GDP means you have more resources to develop and build more and also, you will worry more as you are richer, this is very obvious concept, I am surprised you didn't know that

What's wrong with having opinion, even nobody knows exactly, I have a right to say my opinion, do you have any problem with that?

Who said I didn't believe that 200-300 nukes is effective ? did I say that ? you did

 

[antiterror13]

deleted

 

[antiterror13]

I'd like to also add that weapons like W88 use toxic materials in their designs and American RRW project was supposed to remove those materials and therefore making warheads heavier but safer and more reliable.
34:00 onwards.

But at the moment W88 is still the most advanced warhead design, are you still disputing that ?

I didn't say W88 is a perfect design, there is always room for improvement, like everything else

 

[tidalwave]

What is the link between GDP and the number of warheads?
First you say nobody knows, and then you believe it is closer to 1000. Why not 5000? or 10000? "Chinese officials have already stated that china possesses the smallest nuclear weapons arsenal among the so-called P5 states". The reason you want them to have more than that, is that you don't believe their deterrence is effective with 200-300.

Japan has Zero Nuke weapons yet it hoarding large amount of Plutonium, enough to make 2000 warheads. Nobody knows how much weapon grade materials China has. China has large uranium deposits in Tibet and Inner Mongolia.

That quote is old . With Xi in power and upgrading the number of MRV DF41 , that should change quickly.

You like the character from Clear and Present Danger.

 

[escobar]

Japan has Zero Nuke weapons yet it hoarding large amount of Plutonium, enough to make 2000 warheads. Nobody knows how much weapon grade materials China has large uranium deposits in Tibet and Inner Mongolia.

So if japan did not have large amount of Plutonium or there were no large uranium deposits in Tibet and Inner Mongolia then china could not have a counter-force arsenal, right?

That quote is old.

Still more realistic than the "thousand warhead arsenal"

With Xi in power and upgrading the number of MRV DF41, that should change quickly.

DF-41 is still in test.