It's too early for such precise calculations. We need more high quality images or even better, official specs.
Chengdu next gen combat aircraft (?J-36) thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Nah, just plant plenty of mines on those islands.
It's both. Huge landmass with difficult landscape of all kinds, plus endless islands with countless marine traffic.
For example, JSM is 500kg class weapon; prsm is even lighter. Realistically, any small fishing craft or good SUV can carry them, like it happens in Ukraine - or in gulf(USMC inspiration).
Only boots can root out the problem, and it'll require a coordinated air/naval offensive away from inner reaches of mainland China a2ad to achieve.
Yes, but the world and allies of December 1941 were also not 2030s bluefor.
Japan began from Taiwan, and had full initiative(which they abused to crushing degree), achieving key landings, full naval and air superiority within days.
Question of reinforcing McArthur per prewar plans disappeared before even being brought up(and Wake's fallen soon anyway), allied naval power(Pearl Harbor, force Z) was crushed before making any impact at all.
If, say, our model conflict begins from Taiwan, or is initiated by bluefor, there may be no initiative at all.
It was also...harder, but also easier for them, because anyone but Thailand and Portuguese colonies were enemies by default. No need to play complicated politics everywhere. Finally, there was main theater of operations to focus on; China limited available army resources, but otherwise didn't affect operations everywhere. Bluefor, to n the other hand, is a danger from many directions.
I assume that task is harder, especially since Japan had a clear goal(colonial empire). For China, it's much more complicated, redfor may need to conduct interdiction without occupations and preferably even neutrality breaches.
Which is why such plane as this is so important.
Extreme distribution of bluefor basing is it's strength, it has to be countered, and with appropriate use of intermediate and long range assets, it is a vulnerability that can and should be turned into key weakness.
PLAAF tacair more and more becomes a anvil(which is paramount). But the more PLA tacair grows towards parity with blefor(which is at least temporary superiority on theater), the more it needs a long rapier, as well as a long arm.
Given appropriate time, plan can move pla tacair forward. But it's time and fight yet to be won, penetrative means not reliant on a victory (which is yet to be won, and planning for victory by default is ... foolish) are a must.
To early for such precise calculations? Yet I see dozens of people trying to guess how high and fast, and the flight characteristics of the aircraft from variable properties like wing sweep angle and Mach cones. There have been estimates for weapons bay depth, and payload configurations based on the small outline of a weapons bay. I think these sorts of discussions are fine. I simply did this to create discussion on the electronics potential of the aircraft, from the given photos and videos we’ve seen of the thing. Simply put, it has the potential to carry extremely powerful electronics, given the information we’ve seen.
IMO we don't yet know what the geometry and positioning of the nose radome bulkhead will be, so it's hard to estimate how big of a radar it can accommodate.
I think these are great graphics (particularly the symbology quality), but I do think if any conops of J-36 is depicted without the significant presence of friendly UCAVs/CCAs, then it is asking the J-36 to fight with both arms tied behind its back, hopping on one leg --- of course, even with that, J-36 will still hold significant and generation defining advantages over prior generation aircraft and still very much be capable of conducting the missions you're depicting, but it will do so with even less advantages than it is likely designed for.
The way that Yankee et al have spoken of J-36 and its importance in commanding and enabling unmanned assets, and the inherent role of UCAVs/CCAs in providing the full extent of J-36's capability may be not dissimilar to how integral PL-15s are to providing the full extent of J-20's capability (okay perhaps not that extreme, but close).
The caveat of leaving out UCAVs/CCAs because they have yet to fly is understandable, but I also think representative stand-in estimates can be made, especially as it is likely that there will probably be multiple tiers of UCAVs and CCAs in the future as well, all complementing each other.
Part of the reason I point this out, is because I think these images you've made are very good quality, but if they are shared widely without full acknowledgement of the intrinsic nature of UCAVs/CCAs in J-36's conops then other observers and pundits will just assume it's a traditional A2A interceptor or fighter, rather than seeing that it's more of a high end command and enabling asset for unmanned platforms as well. Even if they're left out as in your image here, it's probably worth highlighting that J-36s fighting in a conops without unmanned platforms is one which is fighting with a very significant handicap.
E.g.: I think a more "representative" image showing J-36 in a more system of systems approach would have similar formations and quantities of friendly CCAs operating ahead of the J-36s and J-20s to face the opfor's system of systems as well (such an image would look rather messy but that is also thematically appropriate given how modern air war is trending towards)
According to the paper by Yang Wei and other CAC designers, it is not have the potential to carry extremely powerful electronics, but must carry extremely powerful electronics, to the point that even more important than how big the weapons bay or how fast it fly. So yes, it is important to discuss its radar and electronic warfare equipment, even if it is just a general statement without similar equipment models as a reference
If you don't mind some critique.
Given j-36 side sensors, aspect LO, big missiles and likely self defense capability, as well as general undesirability of closer combat, i'd consider adding more high off bore engagements.
Furthermore, additional emphasis on killing blue rear offensively.
Also, for def-ca, I'd suggest adding in SAM envelope and redfor CCA formations. Just for completeness of picture.
Excellent graphics.
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You are right, my estimates are very dubious at best. But we have many generous angles of the J-36, some which include what appears to be the outline of the radome. Being blended in with the chine, we have some pretty good estimates of the chine angle, and overall shape of the aircraft itself. Of course like you said we lack accurate geometry and positioning, However it should be said that if the J-36 was indeed side-by-side seating, the nose should be much wider than that of the su-34.
Guessing the rough estimate of modules was a bit foolhardy on my part, but I strongly do believe the potential of the radar to surpass 4000, and even 5000 modules. That's just my 2 cents here.
If it uses tile architecture they could fit 4000 modules in just 1m2 or 5000 modules in 1.25m2. The Turks managed to get down to 2.5cm2 for every TRM in their F-16 AESA: Turkey Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
I do expect J-36 will probably have quite a large primary radar just based on the size of the aircraft and its nose cross section.
The specifics of it OTOH, are probably not able to be adequately estimated yet for the reasons you and I listed.