Looks wildly optimistic tbh, this model is fuelless.
I doubt there's going to be more than one "layer", precisely because it's a2a aircraft first.
Chengdu next gen combat aircraft (?J-36) thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
I doubt there's going to be more than one "layer", precisely because it's a2a aircraft first.
Minimum 2x PL-17+4x PL-15. Depending how deep the bays are it can carry another 2x PL-17.
Max load out IMO is 4x PL-17 and 4x PL-15 with the PL-17 stacked on top of each other.
F-35 have not even ended its systems checklist....service entrance in 2015-2016 and first prototype flight in 2006.
20 years and it don't have all its capabilities and have not overcome its shortfall.
If they don't have something already in the hangar, I cannot see them achieving it before 2040 for a steady working system even if they push hard for it.
B-21 morphing into a loitering AAM turret is their best counter for the 2030s. J-36 is clearly pulling the carpet under their feet.
Potentially yes.
The J-36 poses an even bigger problem to a manned NGAD in US strategy.
The USAF assumption is that they can operate a manned NGAD from Guam because it is too far away for Chinese aircraft to establish air superiority.
But now, we can expect the J-36 to go into service sooner than NGAD, and also to appear in significant numbers over Guam in the 2IC.
So Guam will face the same situation as in the 1IC, where China will have a large advantage in available airbases and aircraft. That means Chinese air and maritime superiority, and the ability to impose a blockade over all of the 1IC and 2IC.
Does it even make sense anymore to go with a large twin-engine NGAD, if there are no "safe" rear areas bases like Guam?
Are they now better off with a single engine design for operations in the 1IC, given that all the airbases in the 1IC and 2IC will be under attack anyway?
Could they try operating from safe rear areas bases in the 3IC?
Potentially, but a supersonic air superiority aircraft would have to be larger than a B-21 and presumably need 4+ engines. Is that even affordable, given the current NGAD experience? Mission flight durations would also be over 14 hours to reach China and back.
Last edited:
I was going to respond the same. One can argue that the U.S. can build a similar plane as the J-36, but having the tech to build one that will have a decisive advantage over the J-36, especially in a network environment is doubtful. If we were to start a project to end up with a similar plane but ten years later would not be very useful. The most likely case is a lot of hand wringing and nothing concrete for years, maybe a decade to come. The longer this goes on, more synergy like the electronics, EVs, C-919 etc. will tilt the cost structure more in favor of China. If in ten years, we can build a plane for three times the Chinese one, I don't know how meaningful that would be.
Maybe unpopular opinion:The primary reason for the prolonged development cycles of new weapons like the F-22 and F-35 in the U.S. military post-Cold War is the lack of pressure from peer competitors.
It's important to note that the U.S. military's air superiority has remained unchallenged since the end of World War II (even the German jet aircraft during WWII did not exert significant competitive pressure on the U.S. due to insufficient production numbers). Broadly speaking, since the Wright brothers invented the airplane, Americans have consistently held a dominant position in the field of aviation. This is the first time that Americans have lost this crown.
Therefore, it is reasonable to anticipate that we will witness a swift response from the U.S. military (in panic): perhaps expediting new tests and modifications on the already test-flown NGAD (though this is uncertain) to quickly propose a new solution ( with minor differences) for production. Or, they might take a bit longer to introduce a more competitive new design.
Regardless, we are on the brink of a new arms race in this century. While this may be detrimental to the world at large, But for us military enthusiasts, it presents an unprecedented opportunity.
I doubt they will.
Such a plane now seems to be like third priority for US.
They can if digital century will work out, but otherwise NGAD ecosystem (with lightweight manned component) and F/A-XX to tilt decks towards great power competition take priority.
Personal expectation - J-36 will remain as a unique PLAAF capability for a while.
Maybe Russia later in the next decade.
Ironically, f-35 now lacks key a2g capabilities above all else, making it incomplete in precisely the types of activities it must do. Munitions integration, laggard EOTS, lack of it's integration into sf...
In a2a domain current fleet is up to standard, at least until future is taken into account.
Last edited:
The Chinese had the J-20 and is getting ready to field the J-35. Given that the U.S. is always used to having a generational advantage over its competitors, how would that not exert competitive pressure for the U.S.? The deindustrialization for the last four decades have changed the U.S. and not for the better. You can dream up a lot of ideas, but to bring them to fruition requires the support of the industrial eco-web that no longer exist in the U.S. to the same degree as before. China has a much, much stronger industrial eco-system to draw from.
However, I don't believe it will take that long (though the budget will undoubtedly be larger).Maybe achieves IOC on 2032-35.
