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Chengdu next gen combat aircraft (?J-36) thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Been thinking about this today.
So now that J-36's basic dimension is available for all to see, USAF can pretty much put in some very educated guesses on things like top speed, weapon payload, radar size, power generation, range and stealth.
Since this is US military we are talking about, they will want to make sure NGAD system's mother ship (the manned fighter) will have to have specs that can overcome the challenges posed by J-36. J-36's threat to things like tankers, AEWC&C, aircraft carriers, B-21 and Guam are pretty obvious. Just as an example, if you see the power cooling issues with F-35 and don't want to lose out to J-36 in electronics, then you will obviously need to ensure you have enough interior space and power generation to overcome J-36's power generation. That alone would yield the need for probably even larger aircraft than J-36 that can fly even faster and farther than J-36.
So, it would take imo 2 years to settle on requirement and pick the winner.
It took 5 years for the first F-22 prototype to fly after Lockmart was picked. It took F-15 3 years to do the same. Let's say NGAD moves faster than F-22 and flies 4 years after a winner is picked, that would still mean 2030 for first flight of an actual prototype.
It took 4 years for F-15 to enter service after it flew. It took 8 years for F-22 to enter service after it first flew.
Now given the complexity of today's systems, It's hard for me to see NGAD taking just 4 years to go from first flight to service entrance. As such, I think it achieves IOC after 2035, probably 2037 to 2038 range.
Whereas I think J-36 will be more around 2031 to 2032. That's a huge period where China has obvious generation gap vs rest of the world.
So now that J-36's basic dimension is available for all to see, USAF can pretty much put in some very educated guesses on things like top speed, weapon payload, radar size, power generation, range and stealth.
Since this is US military we are talking about, they will want to make sure NGAD system's mother ship (the manned fighter) will have to have specs that can overcome the challenges posed by J-36. J-36's threat to things like tankers, AEWC&C, aircraft carriers, B-21 and Guam are pretty obvious. Just as an example, if you see the power cooling issues with F-35 and don't want to lose out to J-36 in electronics, then you will obviously need to ensure you have enough interior space and power generation to overcome J-36's power generation. That alone would yield the need for probably even larger aircraft than J-36 that can fly even faster and farther than J-36.
So, it would take imo 2 years to settle on requirement and pick the winner.
It took 5 years for the first F-22 prototype to fly after Lockmart was picked. It took F-15 3 years to do the same. Let's say NGAD moves faster than F-22 and flies 4 years after a winner is picked, that would still mean 2030 for first flight of an actual prototype.
It took 4 years for F-15 to enter service after it flew. It took 8 years for F-22 to enter service after it first flew.
Now given the complexity of today's systems, It's hard for me to see NGAD taking just 4 years to go from first flight to service entrance. As such, I think it achieves IOC after 2035, probably 2037 to 2038 range.
Whereas I think J-36 will be more around 2031 to 2032. That's a huge period where China has obvious generation gap vs rest of the world.
This seems a little optimistic? I saw estimates that the smaller weapons bay is a little narrower than that of the J-20, which can barely hold three PL-15s. I also don't know if the main bay is big enough for all those PL-17s.
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Do you think US Navy should move faster with their NGAD/FAXX? Their current a-to-a platform is still FA-18, increasingly not too desirable for Taiwan Strait conflict
So that basically means all current specs for NGAD manned fighter will be overthrown and the whole project will be redesigned? It is very interesting to see if it is becoming a trijet just like j36, since xa100 and xa102 are similar in thrust compared to f119/f135, so twin engine configuration cannot match j36’s power generation capability
I scaled the two photos under the (reasonable) assumption that the J-36 side weapons bays are of the same length as the J-20 main weapons bay. I think the image above is a good approximation of the size difference between the 2 aircraft.
Counting pixels, it's clear that a J-36 side bay panel is much narrower than a J-20 main bay panel. There's no way three side-by-side PL-15 can fit in there. At most they can fit two PL-15 with fins folded. It appears the main bay of the J-36 is only as wide as the main bay of the J-20. Personally, I doubt it will fit four PL-17 side by side.
I think a realistic max loadout for the J-36 is something like 6x PL-17 and 4x PL-15.
actually, just thought about this more. I think I might be underestimating the testing period.
The demand on these 6th generation aircraft in terms of EW, sensor fusion, command and control is so high. Just thinking about EW, it would have to deal with not just aerial targets, but also different types of ships and ground air defense/radar. + also satellites and other sources which might be used to confuse adversaries.
While you can test these system on specialized aircraft, they will eventually need to be verified on the 6th gen aircraft also. And these testing will last for a while.
so getting J-36 into service by 2032 would actually be quite impressive. I wouldn't be surprised if NGAD doesn't achieve IOC until 2040.
this is great. the size of the nose on J-36 is so much larger than J-20. That's just insane. So much more space for radar and electronics. That's like twice as wide in diameter, so you can have almost 4x the volume for all your power plumbing needs.
the wings are so much large. the fuselage after main weapon bay & in front of engines is also so large that can presumably be used to accommodate more fuel, electric generator, starter motor, battery and wiring and such.
EW power on this thing will be out of control.
Eh, I think in the simplest terms the best gauge for how quickly the US can keep pace depends on where they are with component technologies and subsystems, especially in the cost performance dimension. If they’re at parity or ahead their pace is purely dictated by organizational questions. If they’re behind on the component tech then their schedule worsens considerably.
What is price tag after all those aggressive updates on NGAD? Kendall thought $300m is an unacceptable price. How about $1b for each new NGAD manner fighter? that’s not a joke since b21 already has a price tag of $800m