Can you win a war with only light infantry in the 21st century?

solarz said:

Actually, I think it'd be a lot harder than you think.

First, what kind of resolution would you need to pick out the heat signature of a small group of people in a land as vast as the Canadian North?

Second, how would you distinguish such signatures from herds of caribou, for example?

Third, it's doubtful that there is even much heat signature at all. The very purpose of winter clothes is to keep our body heat inside instead of radiating it outside.

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Nice example! One question: FOOD!!! How do you expect several thousand people to survive in the middle of the tundra? One or two people doing survival exercise for a couple weeks? That's fine. Several thousand trying to survive in long term while maintaining fighting capability? that's a tall order. That's why most the natives living in cold weather live in small groups, like Eskimos. There is simply not enough resources to support large forces.

About detection, people can't survive in the cold without fire. caribous can. And fire is a lot hotter than body temp. So all you have to do is to detect high temp and you find people. Then bombs follow... or they can follow the caribou carcasses.. Several thousand people will need LOTS of food. the govn't force can follow the trail. Even if the natives bury their waste, the newly dug holes on the ground will stand out if you look for them in the air. Then bombs follow... Another way would be to look out for caribous running away. That means someone is hunting them. You simply trace back and you will find the people. Then bombs follow...

If I were the canadian govn't, I would form a blockade. They would either surrender or die of starvation in a month. IMO, the best way to deal with enemies like this is defense, not offense. They run and hide. It would be so difficult to find them in the vast wilderness. The best way is to choke, block off any means of getting food and supply. It would be so easy for the Canadian govn't to do this.

vesicles said:

Nice example! One question: FOOD!!! How do you expect several thousand people to survive in the middle of the tundra? One or two people doing survival exercise for a couple weeks? That's fine. Several thousand trying to survive in long term while maintaining fighting capability? that's a tall order. That's why most the natives living in cold weather live in small groups, like Eskimos. There is simply not enough resources to support large forces.

About detection, people can't survive in the cold without fire. caribous can. And fire is a lot hotter than body temp. So all you have to do is to detect high temp and you find people. Then bombs follow... or they can follow the caribou carcasses.. Several thousand people will need LOTS of food. the govn't force can follow the trail. Even if the natives bury their waste, the newly dug holes on the ground will stand out if you look for them in the air. Then bombs follow... Another way would be to look out for caribous running away. That means someone is hunting them. You simply trace back and you will find the people. Then bombs follow...

If I were the canadian govn't, I would form a blockade. They would either surrender or die of starvation in a month. IMO, the best way to deal with enemies like this is defense, not offense. They run and hide. It would be so difficult to find them in the vast wilderness. The best way is to choke, block off any means of getting food and supply. It would be so easy for the Canadian govn't to do this.

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Keep in mind that this is several thousand people spread across a vast area. The key point is that each Ranger is trained in wilderness survival, and has been doing that for years or even decades.

They would not be a massed infantry force, but can infiltrate pretty much anywhere. I'm not talking about the population centers, but the northern wilderness. Their targets would be the thousands of miles of oil and gas pipelines.

How exactly would the government blockade them?

313230 said:

What if the light infantry moves under forrest, jungle? And in tropical countries, outdoor temperature can reach to 37 degree Celsius

Can heat be detected effectively there?

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Infrared devices can detect heat sources even through jungle and thick forest. The problem is it picks other large mamal heat sources as well, and not just humans.

solarz said:

Keep in mind that this is several thousand people spread across a vast area. The key point is that each Ranger is trained in wilderness survival, and has been doing that for years or even decades.

They would not be a massed infantry force, but can infiltrate pretty much anywhere. I'm not talking about the population centers, but the northern wilderness. Their targets would be the thousands of miles of oil and gas pipelines.

How exactly would the government blockade them?

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You have to concentrate in some fashion if you want to actually fight. If you break it up into one/two men teams, you will have individual assassins, but meaningful fighting units. Keep in mind that we are discussing "light infantry", not individual assassins or small unit guerrilla style of fighting. So the #1 requirement for this scenario would be that you must have a sizable fighting unit.

Like I said, surviving as individuals is completely different from surviving as a large group. To survive as a single person, the key is self preservation, while the last thing you need is self-preservation if you want to survive as a large group in difficult conditions. If these Rangers keep doing the same things they do as individuals, they will die off or have a mutiny in no time. Places with extreme weathers are bad places for starting rebellions.

As to blockade, blocking off main roads with heavy barriers would be a good start. Without proper equipment, they would have a hard time crossing the barriers. They need the main roads to transport supplies.

vesicles said:

You have to concentrate in some fashion if you want to actually fight. If you break it up into one/two men teams, you will have individual assassins, but meaningful fighting units. Keep in mind that we are discussing "light infantry", not individual assassins or small unit guerrilla style of fighting. So the #1 requirement for this scenario would be that you must have a sizable fighting unit.

Like I said, surviving as individuals is completely different from surviving as a large group. To survive as a single person, the key is self preservation, while the last thing you need is self-preservation if you want to survive as a large group in difficult conditions. If these Rangers keep doing the same things they do as individuals, they will die off or have a mutiny in no time. Places with extreme weathers are bad places for starting rebellions.

As to blockade, blocking off main roads with heavy barriers would be a good start. Without proper equipment, they would have a hard time crossing the barriers. They need the main roads to transport supplies.

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Okay, but nothing says they have to "concentrate" on the way to their target. They can easily move while dispersed and regroup once they've reached their target.

Blockades only work if you have the manpower to man it. With the size of the canadian wilderness, I don't think that's very feasible. You can block the main arteries, but you can't block all the small roads. Plus, it's not hard to drive off-road in the tundra.

solarz said:

Okay, but nothing says they have to "concentrate" on the way to their target. They can easily move while dispersed and regroup once they've reached their target.

Blockades only work if you have the manpower to man it. With the size of the canadian wilderness, I don't think that's very feasible. You can block the main arteries, but you can't block all the small roads. Plus, it's not hard to drive off-road in the tundra.

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Fuel supplies? Food supplies? Ammunition? Without logistical support, the uprising would collapse in weeks.

Plus, the tundra is not exactly great light infantry territory. Flat, treeless, frozen plains are ideal for mechanized combat and maneuver. Insert a few US Army BCTs with Abrams tanks and Apache helicopters into the mix, backed by stealth bombers and drones, and those natives will be crushed.

solarz said:

Okay, but nothing says they have to "concentrate" on the way to their target. They can easily move while dispersed and regroup once they've reached their target.

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If they live as dispersed, how do they communicate while in the disperse mode? Would any of the communication be intercepted by the govn't? The answer would most likely be yes if we assume the Canadian govn't is the advanced combined force. Then the govn't forces would simply wait at their target...

If they move as a group, then disperse, then gather again when they get close to the target, they will get into the same issue of feeding such a large force in an area that does not support such large group.

solarz said:

Blockades only work if you have the manpower to man it. With the size of the canadian wilderness, I don't think that's very feasible. You can block the main arteries, but you can't block all the small roads. Plus, it's not hard to drive off-road in the tundra.

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Yes, moving off-road in the tundra is possible, as individuals. You need main roads for supply. how much stuff can a AWD carry. Then there is the problem of fuel and ammunition. How do you get those? Without fuel and ammunition, these natives simply become men living in the wild with no capability to fight. After a while, even hunting becomes an issue when you don't have the bullets to shoot and don't have vehicles to haul.

There are a couple of ways the rebels can supply themselves.

Food and fuel can be obtained from the scattered native settlements.

As for weapons, their best bet is to take over an army base and steal away with the weapons. This of course needs the element of surprise. I imagine this operation to take place simultaneously with the declaration of independence. As the spirit of the uprising spreads, many northern bases where the majority of soldiers are natives would defect to the uprising, providing the rebels with caches of weapons and ammunition.

Of course, further supplies will be far more difficult. However, as with real-life uprisings in both Libya and Syria, foreign support would be crucial for the success of the rebellion. Russia, for example, would be able to supply the rebels through the arctic circle.

I think the communication issue is more easily solved than we think. For example, how are the Syrian rebels communicating, and why haven't government forces been able to gather effective intelligence on them?

solarz said:

There are a couple of ways the rebels can supply themselves.

Food and fuel can be obtained from the scattered native settlements.

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This cannot be long term. How can the locals maintain a good supply themselves? This is NOT normal farm country, where farmers can plant/feed their own food. You can't grow anything on the tundra. The locals also keep outside help for supply. It won't take long to turn the locals against the rebels when the rebels had to take the scarce food from the locals. Note I'm using the word "take" loosely since it won't take long for the rebels to have to use force to get food. If you have to choose feeding your own kids vs. feeding the rebels, which side would you pick?

solarz said:

As for weapons, their best bet is to take over an army base and steal away with the weapons. This of course needs the element of surprise. I imagine this operation to take place simultaneously with the declaration of independence. As the spirit of the uprising spreads, many northern bases where the majority of soldiers are natives would defect to the uprising, providing the rebels with caches of weapons and ammunition.

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That's wishful thinking. Taking a couple bases at the beginning might not be too difficult. However, as this thing drags on and on, when the supply gets low again (this is what I was asking before), govn't should put high alert on those bases and it would become highly unlikely for the natives to get anything done.

solarz said:

Of course, further supplies will be far more difficult. However, as with real-life uprisings in both Libya and Syria, foreign support would be crucial for the success of the rebellion. Russia, for example, would be able to supply the rebels through the arctic circle.

I think the communication issue is more easily solved than we think. For example, how are the Syrian rebels communicating, and why haven't government forces been able to gather effective intelligence on them?

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Who would supply them? This is North America, away from the main geopolitical centers of the world. Syria is in the center of the Euro-Asian continent with many nations and many different interests. North America belongs to the US. Unless the US wants to support the local, no one else will stick their head into this mess. As for Russia, why would they want to get into a mess like this? It's across the arctic. Even if they manage to help the natives to become independent, how would they expect themselves to maintain the hold across such difficult terrain, not to mention loss of any political goodwill with the US? It costs way too much and gets you almost nothing.

solarz said:

I think the communication issue is more easily solved than we think. For example, how are the Syrian rebels communicating, and why haven't government forces been able to gather effective intelligence on them?

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I think the Canadian forces have a few nice toys that nations like Syria can only dream to have.

solarz said:

There are a couple of ways the rebels can supply themselves.

Food and fuel can be obtained from the scattered native settlements.

As for weapons, their best bet is to take over an army base and steal away with the weapons. This of course needs the element of surprise. I imagine this operation to take place simultaneously with the declaration of independence. As the spirit of the uprising spreads, many northern bases where the majority of soldiers are natives would defect to the uprising, providing the rebels with caches of weapons and ammunition.

Of course, further supplies will be far more difficult. However, as with real-life uprisings in both Libya and Syria, foreign support would be crucial for the success of the rebellion. Russia, for example, would be able to supply the rebels through the arctic circle.

I think the communication issue is more easily solved than we think. For example, how are the Syrian rebels communicating, and why haven't government forces been able to gather effective intelligence on them?

Click to expand...

The Canadian Arctic coast is one of the most heavily surveilled battlespaces in the entire world, as it was the expected entry point for the vast majority of Soviet bombers and ICBMs in the Cold War. Undersea sonar cables, spy satellites in polar orbits, long-range radars, constant fighter patrols, etc. The Russians couldn't move a nut or bolt into Northern Canada without it being seen, and if they were seen, I doubt the US would tolerate it.

Also, I can see Canada adopting a strategy where any base that rebels instantly becomes a giant fixed target for US bombers...