Not only dumping the dollars but also selling or retrieving the gold from the US. State owned companies or other major Chinese companies should sell their assets in the US and Australia.
Can China overtake the US in GDP Nominal before the end of this decade? A Thread...
Not only dumping the dollars but also selling or retrieving the gold from the US. State owned companies or other major Chinese companies should sell their assets in the US and Australia.
Yes, I think the Chinese NSA GDP revision will come later
At the moment, it takes 1-3 years for statistics to filter through into the minds of US decision markers.
So Trump for example still thinks the Chinese economy is significantly smaller.
But once you near or pass the sorpasso moment, a lot of people in the USA will be immediately shocked into treating China as a really serious competitor.
That would be time to apply the latest GDP revisions, and demonstrate that the Chinese economy is actually a lot larger.
Don't care about Mongolia or outer Manchuria. China has settled its borders with Russia. Mongolia is already an independent country. China should have no problem buying resources and commodities from them and maintain a good relationship. Of course, nothing is set in stone as Putin can't live forever. On the other hand, 1/4 of Mongolians are pro-China, 1/4 pro-Russia, 1/4 pro-West, and 1/4 nazi with ultra nationalism. Mongolia has nothing to offer except resources which China can buy and has the monopoly as of the only buyer. I don't mind Mongolia acts as a buffer zone between China and Russia.
As for Taiwan, it should be reunified within a decade and mark the ascertain of China being one of the world most dominant powers and set the stage for full blown rivalry between China and the US.
As for Taiwan, it should be reunified within a decade and mark the ascertain of China being one of the world most dominant powers and set the stage for full blown rivalry between China and the US.
more like 2025, YUAN will appreciate alot in next few years.
China should demand that bilateral trade to be partly conducted in RMB.
If China frees up the economy, people will conduct business in RMB naturally. Until then, RMB will never be a reserve currency.
Remember, to be a reserve currency, the RMB has to resemble gold in the sense that it is stable, recognized by everyone, can be used to trade for anything, limited supply.
The CCP knows this of course, the question is whether or not they want the RMB to be a reserve currency. Or if they are simply satisfied with controlling Chinese and cementing their rule.
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Your analysis was quite good. I have two problems with your current analysis. There are two highly probable events that your are not taking into account.
First of all, US and efforts of other western countries to decouple, sanction and alienate China. I think slowly but surely even Europeans will also start to show decoupling tendencies, since they too dislike that a non-western power is rising. So, I think there will be heavy decoupling efforts and tensions between the two sides in the next 10 years. This will lead big losses both in China and in the west especially US. In fact the whole world will see less growth due to this shift. China will ofcourse be forced to redouble its efforts towards the home market and non-western markets but there will be losses which will lead to lower GDP growth. US will also see lower GDP growth due to this.
Secondly, US already had a long boom for the last 5-6 years. Economy has boom and bust cycles. US was moving towards a bust even before Covid. Now that covid has arrived, US is printing massive amounts of money to stem the slide. Thus, even more inefficiencies are building up. There is a lot of Bubble in the US including property, stocks, small businesses and so on. This will lead to a crash and long term recession and slowdown in order to correct the bubble. Europe did not have any growth in GDP for 10 years after 2008. It was completely stagnant. Even if that does not happen in the US. I can envision a stagnant US for atleast 3-4 years. and even 1% growth afterwards.
So, both the potential correction of bubbles plus covid plus decoupling will lead to much lower US growth and lower value of US dollar. China too may have less growth due to decoupling and overall global recession due to Covid. So, although China might still catch up to US by 2028 or even earlier. I think the overall GDP number of both countries could be much lower due lower growth and stagnation.
US has this all backwards, it's not US making China strong, it's China making US strong.
China is the one supplying the US with slave labor and cheap goods and unlimited credit for Americans to spend while they get to sit down and innovate.
It's like back in slavery days when the field slaves did all the work while the whites worked on science. Then they dumped the slaves for machines starting the industrial revolution.
China is the one supplying the US with slave labor and cheap goods and unlimited credit for Americans to spend while they get to sit down and innovate.
It's like back in slavery days when the field slaves did all the work while the whites worked on science. Then they dumped the slaves for machines starting the industrial revolution.
Until most wealthy Chinese grow some backbone, I seriously am against the idea of floating the yuan. Chinese capital flight and outflows were over 1.3 trillion dollars between 2010 and 2019. Even after crackdown of corruption and crime, many middle and high income individuals still blindly prefer to send their children aboard.