Can China overtake the US in GDP Nominal before the end of this decade? A Thread...

[Awwkus]

There’s no need to do this anymore. In OP’s most optimistic projection of China’s 2021 nominal GDP, he was still way too conservative by a trillion dollars.

2025 is a given. Let’s move on.

Can we please do a 2023 update to this table? There is definitely a need to to do this, as the US and China figures are both way off and the FOREX rates have been unpredictable as well.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Can we please do a 2023 update to this table? There is definitely a need to to do this, as the US and China figures are both way off and the FOREX rates have been unpredictable as well.

I think when China overtakes US will depend on how and long the coming US recession will be. US economy is overinflated due to low fed rates for over a decade, followed by extreme stimulus during the pandemic. It has led to super high inflation we see at the moment.

Now the Fed is forced to heavily increase interest rates which will lead to a recession. This recession could be fast and quick one like what happened in 2008 when there was a big crash followed by government stimulus and restart of growth.

It could also be a slow and stagnating one. Kinda like what happened to Japan when it deflated all its asset bubbles slowly. So US could become a stagnating economy for several years.

China on the other hand did not inflate during the pandemic and actually started popping bubbles before even getting out of the pandemic. It is going through its own slow motion recession. Its a Chinese style recession which is to deflate bubbles slowly and not to do too much stimulus. So, it will lead to slow and steady ramp up of the economy again.

So, if US stagnates while China accelerates, then China will catchup quickly, likely before 2030. If not then China will need more than 2030 to catch up.

 

[TK3600]

The better question is when will US collapse? As it stand right now no politician will let China surpass them in nominal gdp. They will print money, fake numbers, all just to preserve face. Long term consequences be damned. This means not any time soon will China outgrow US on paper. That is, until US collapse from this kind of measure.

I would say early 2030s. Pick one of the scenario below:

1. Lose a war directly to China and takes resulting cost of war.
2. No war, just normal budget deficeit and debt interests.
3. Widespread social unrest and mass capital flight.

 

[tygyg1111]

The better question is when will US collapse? As it stand right now no politician will let China surpass them in nominal gdp. They will print money, fake numbers, all just to preserve face. Long term consequences be damned. This means not any time soon will China outgrow US on paper. That is, until US collapse from this kind of measure.

I would say early 2030s. Pick one of the scenario below:

1. Lose a war directly to China and takes resulting cost of war.
2. No war, just normal budget deficeit and debt interests.
3. Widespread social unrest and mass capital flight.

#3 - South Africanisation of America

 

[Biscuits]

The better question is when will US collapse? As it stand right now no politician will let China surpass them in nominal gdp. They will print money, fake numbers, all just to preserve face. Long term consequences be damned. This means not any time soon will China outgrow US on paper. That is, until US collapse from this kind of measure.

I would say early 2030s. Pick one of the scenario below:

1. Lose a war directly to China and takes resulting cost of war.
2. No war, just normal budget deficeit and debt interests.
3. Widespread social unrest and mass capital flight.

Also 4: if China changes monetary policy and decides to hike the Yuan.

All in all, looking at non inflation adjusted gdp is pointless. It will just fluctuate a lot depending on central bank policies in different states.