No hard evidence but that's mine and some other people's suspicion. Of course Iran claims everything as indiginous so we can hardly expect an answer any time soon.
Bluffers Guide: Iranian Naval Capability 2007
- Thread starter planeman
- Start date
Violet Oboe
Junior Member
During the past few days (middle east newsline (menl) was probably the primary source) several ´experts´ made statements that the Bush admistration has basically called off a miltary strike against Iran for the time being (...regarding that Bush as a´lame duck´has only 18 months in power left with an upcoming election year ahead and that Tehran is making rapid progress in nuclear matters the ´window of opportunity´may have indeed closed forever!). Interestingly the ´sources´ also maintain that Israel was also told in an unequivocal style: "We don't do it, so do not dare to try it alone!" (VP Dick Cheney was not amused after hearing about this...
)
Whatever the facts behind this important decision may have been the iranian naval forces were probably only a minor factor in this calculation. Iran would have not succeeded in blocking the Hormuz straits for any significant period of time with this kind of force unless the ´people in the know´ were concerned about some ´ugly things´ better being left ´undiscovered´ for the public.
)Whatever the facts behind this important decision may have been the iranian naval forces were probably only a minor factor in this calculation. Iran would have not succeeded in blocking the Hormuz straits for any significant period of time with this kind of force unless the ´people in the know´ were concerned about some ´ugly things´ better being left ´undiscovered´ for the public.
Costas 240GD
Junior Member
Excellent artwork, Planeman!
One question only: Are you sure that this is indeed an IVECO? Looks more like a Mercedes-Benz to me (Atego or something).
During the past few days (middle east newsline (menl) was probably the primary source) several ´experts´ made statements that the Bush admistration has basically called off a miltary strike against Iran for the time being (...regarding that Bush as a´lame duck´has only 18 months in power left with an upcoming election year ahead and that Tehran is making rapid progress in nuclear matters the ´window of opportunity´may have indeed closed forever!). Interestingly the ´sources´ also maintain that Israel was also told in an unequivocal style: "We don't do it, so do not dare to try it alone!" (VP Dick Cheney was not amused after hearing about this...
Whatever the facts behind this important decision may have been the iranian naval forces were probably only a minor factor in this calculation. Iran would have not succeeded in blocking the Hormuz straits for any significant period of time with this kind of force unless the ´people in the know´ were concerned about some ´ugly things´ better being left ´undiscovered´ for the public.
It seems every other day a new news report is released one time saying war is imminent, the next that a crisis has been averted. Politicians are shuttling back and forth between various capitols, and the US or was it the EU has proposed some new measure of tough sounding but utterly worthless diplospeak. The world has been watching the Iranian nuclear emergency for a couple of years now. 1 part skepticism, 1 part dread, and 1 part morbid curiosity as two of the planets biggest egos collide. But what if the hawks win and we actually plunge into war? What will each side try and do to win the war it thinks it will fight?
Many people seem to think, that the modus operandi of the US in any war with Iran would be to send in the bombers, smash the nuclear facilities and fly home: war over. This is wishful thinking by a war weary and woefully under-informed public. While the nuclear question will probably be the issue that drives us over the brink. The real threat is to the tankers and the worlds energy supply. The reactors and enrichment sites are decidedly 2nd tier targets even if hit early for propaganda reasons. Any US strike will instead concentrate on clearing the Iranian military presence from the tanker lanes as the first step to victory. It will also be a sustained round-the-clock effort that will take warfare into the next frontier of war fighting.
US Actions
1- Force protection for the small patrol boats and oil platform crews operating in Iraq so close to Iran.
The recent seizure of the RN personnel sent a very clear message: mess with us and you'll see your sons and daughters on Al Jazzera
2- Oil tanker protection
Convoy systems under heavy guard is the best answer, but the first lonely hours of a shooting war would have a huge amount of tankers just sitting there waiting to be picked off by Iran. Probably the best response is USN and Gulf State helicopters and fixed wing aircraft they have the speed and capability to sink the Iranian boats and for the most part are immune to counter fire. Of course US subs would have to hunt the Kilo's as target number #1.
3- Oil/Gas platform protection.
The biggest items to be protected are Qatar’s gas facilities and Iraq's oil platforms one for the sheer destructive potential if a fully loaded LNG bulk carrier went boom. The second (Iraq) has to be successfully defended for political reasons. Keeping Iraq’s two facilities in play so close to Iran would be a slap in the face. Iran can probably take them with missiles, but the environmental risk there hurts Iran economically and politically.
4- Fleet protection
If the US is going to be the one pulling the trigger (and it should if it wants to win) it will pull its surface combatants into 3 distinct groups based on Missions. The Carriers will be out of the Gulf and into deep water where they can maneuver freely and hide in the vast blue Indian Ocean. Some of the Aegis class and type ships will be pulled close to the shipping platforms and Hi-Val targets to supplement Patriot Block III systems as ABM/ACM back stop. The third group including a few aegis vessels and a few more dedicated surface combatants as a convoy escort force. A fourth group will be USN/RN submarines that will be hunting Iran’s subs and conducting cruise missile strikes. A general 5th group will be the Gulf States who initially will act to defend their national waters and later aid in convoy escort to safeguard their national economies.
5- Ground Force protection
Any strike on Iran will probably see its most immediate reaction via the Mahdi Army. However with even as little as 3 hours warning US and UK troops can bunker up and settle in for a siege while fighter bombers and attack helicopters back up mechanized columns setting out to give battle (Think Hue 1968)
Points 6-13 are not defensive but offensive oriented.
6 Missile guidance
Iran has a few islands and some drilling/shipping platforms that have to be taken out "ad initio" The islands will probably require a steady blanket of bomb trucks over the parts of the islands facing the convoy routes. The platforms can probably be taken out by HARM missiles and or commando operations. These strikes are crucial to deny Iran is best systems for course correction of it's anti-shipping missiles.
7 Sub hunting,
In a shooting war, no one will rest easy until Iran's submarines- especially its three Kilo's are sitting on the bottom of the Persian gulf as dead as the Shah in his grave. This mission is best done by USN/RN attack subs. The Kilo's have the best chance to sink a tanker, and those tankers will be the center of gravity.
8 Air denial
8a
If the US initiates a war, stealth bomber and cruise missile attacks will probably hit local airfields to atritt and delay the arrival of Iranian strike craft and fighters to give the US and its allies a chance to clear the war zone of as much shipping as possible
8b
Depth, US and Saudi F-15 backed by AWAC's can create a nearly Iranian proof bubble. Iran might challenge it initially in order to cover strike craft, but the Iranian Air Force isn't big enough or advanced enough to sustain any level of effort vs. a 1st rate western air force.
8c
Close, USN FA/-18's armed for a dual mission can cover the tankers and with a decent a2a armament can tackle any strike craft the leak through.
What all of this does is create an environment where Iranian airpower can not operate in large numbers or for very long. Iran faces a double trouble situation- pull enough fighters to cover the maritime strike craft and the reactors and political leadership are uncovered. Keep planes over the nuclear facilities and clerics and the maritime strike craft are doomed.
9- missile/stealth strikes
Backed by the most sophisticated electronics intelligence technologies, human intelligence assets and a real love for infrastructure take down, the areas near Bandar Abbas with any possible military value will be hit hard by Tomahawk cruise missiles and stealth craft. Major infiltration routes and assembly areas near the Iraqi border as well as Pasadran bases will also be hit.
10- Infowar
In any war vs. Iran look for the US to go cyber on their ass. Not only will the US continue its usual practice of targeting telephone exchanges and satellite relays, but she will also conduct an internet attack, C4SRI spoofing and full spectrum jamming of the combat zones aimed at taking down Iran's entire information grid. Iran will actually help this by having its senior leadership go into hiding. They haven't forgotten the 2000 pound laser guided bombs we sent after Saddam personally, or President Bush’s very public reversal of Ford’s 1976 Presidential Directive prohibiting the targeting of enemy leadership. This enforced scattering of the political and military leadership will add friction and build delays into Iran's response.
11- Nuclear option
If war breaks out Iran faces a hell of a choice, scram the reactors as a matter of national survival because of the risk of fallout if the US hits hot reactors. Or shut them down and risk assured attack as soon as the reactors are cool. They are dammed if they do and dammed if they don't. The US might not strike near a hot reactor, but they again they or Israel just might.
12- Political
12a
I don't think Britain will be a visible combatant from the beginning. Their VETO can be used to block China and Russia in the UNSC as long as they don't fight they can keep the US's hands free long enough to achieve the initial favorable military atmosphere the US needs to go to a round the clock campaign. This move would also allow Britain to exact a very punishing revenge for the seizure of its sailors.
12b
The Gulf States will back the US out of sheer national survival. They might not want war, but once the shooting start and their economies are on the line they will be forced by necessity to aid the coalition. If Iran can block the straights of Hormuz and keep it blocked they and the world's economy chokes to death.
12c
The US will not hold any punches, the war has to be over and the straits re-opened before the last of the oil already in transit gets unloaded. With Bush a very reckless president if Iran manages to hang on I would not put it past Bush or Cheney to push for a tactical nuclear strike(s) to neutralize the missile firing sites.
13 Mine warfare
I saved the worst for last, Iran has a huge inventory of mines and numerous means of at least small scale delivery. Using older mines in 1987 Iran and Iraq both showed how vulnerable the super tankers were. Even US warships occasionally fell prey to the floating killers. Any US drift towards war will need to be accompanied by a massive increase in anti-mine capability. This very focused surge could well tip the Iranians off and blow any pretext of surprise. However not having the right assets on hand could block the Persian Gulf and place the world into an economic tailspin.
Iran's Responses.
IR1- Mahdi surge in Iraq,
Iran undoubtedly intends for its militia allies to go berserk if she is attacked in an attempt to tie up however much airpower they can and to simply inflict losses on US/UK troops. This is the easiest, surest, and cheapest way to get some measure of revenge on the US.
IR2- Prisoners
The raids on British sailors show that Iran still thinks in terms of the propaganda value that POW's offer vs. western public opinion. Even if they are wrong, I think they will try to snatch as many coalition troops as possible.
IR3- Missiles
I am not talking anti-ship missiles here, but surface to surface. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia have ballistic missiles aimed at each other, and Iran has mustard gas. While the block III Patriot/Aegis combo should provide a great deal of protection against ballistic attack. The outside chance that a WMD armed missile could leak through is of grave concern. Much more problematical would be a WMD armed missile hitting Israel. If Iran pops the WMD genie things go down hill fast. Vs the US under Bush that’s like bringing a dull knife to a tank duel.
IR4- Terror Attacks
Lets not kid ourselves, Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism with contacts, cells, and assets worldwide. Iran is also not stupid, even if it is rash, she has undoubtedly has planned for war with the US. Iran most likely has sleeper cells set to cause as much damage as possible for revenge and to sow confusion and fear. Iran knows if the US takes the gloves off her dreams of power are over so she has nothing to lose. Plus a war would be the perfect cover to go after the House of Saud and the pro-American ministers in Iraq. I also expect a global call to jihad, but this is just typical fare in these situations.
IR5- Cyber Attacks
Two can play the cyber game, Iran may not have the resources to take down the US, but she can cost the west billions if she uses her resources properly by attacking linchpin networks. Even a simple denial of service attack on Wall Street could cost the US a great deal of money. With the undeniable rise of the net, net warfare is the next frontier. It is already being used for propaganda and communication and just like the early aero plane the next step is offensive use.
IR6- Super Notes
The new US $100 are supposed to be counterfeit proof, but so where the old ones. If Iran has re-mastered the devious art of Supernote making she could launch a devastating attack on the world’s principle reserve currency which is already weaker than ever.
IR7- Dead Babies
Weather or not a US bomb goes off course and hits a school or the maternity ward of a charity hospital; we will be told that is what has happened. If Iran can create enough feelings of revulsion about the effects of US bombing in the Western news media she might be able to get her friends in the UN to act. It's a slim chance that the US will listen, at least initially but Iran has to try. If the bombs keep falling Iran looses in the end.
IR8- Naval Combat,
IR8a surface
Iran has a complex and confusing force structure split between the Navy and the Pasadran. However as both act in a maritime I role I will simply use the term navy. Iran’s surface combatant capability is limited at best. Even its most numerous and effective craft are really set up for shooting war vs. modern warships. Instead their goal seems to be a surge into the Gulf to cause as much damage as possible by blitzing the super tankers. Most Iranian anti-ship missiles and torpedoes have limited effectiveness vs. warships, but 1987 proved that even light weapons can easily cripple a loaded super tanker.
IR8b shore based anti-ship missiles
Iran has a large fleet of truck mounted light and medium anti-ship missiles and a few batteries of larger and older Chinese weapons like the HY-2 Silkworm. Islands like Abu Musa, and Greater and Lesser Tunb Islands provide unsinkable missile boats. Iran is obviously banking that these sites can fire the missiles and the off shore platforms can guide them.
IR8c mines
Iran has a large inventory of mines, these pose a huge risk to the international tanker fleets supply the worlds energy needs. In fact mines might be Iran’s most effective means of naval combat.
IR8d submarines
Iran has three very capable Kilo class SSK diesel electric submarines. If these hunters can get into the shipping channels undetected they can cause the world a huge amount of grief. Although they have limited range they are the one seaborne asset Iran has that can realistically be expected to survive outside the confined waters of the Persian Gulf. This freedom of action could make them hard to kill in the first few critical hours when the tankers would be the most vulnerable.
IR9- Air Combat
On first glance Iran’s SU-24 and SU-25 craft give them a credible air strike capability. However once one factors US air power and information dominance into the equation the conclusion is that the threat from the air is probably the least dangerous part of Iran’s arsenal. The only real chance of success for Iran’s strike craft would require the Iranian military being the one initiating hostilities. In an environment blanketed by Eagles, Hornets and AWAC’s the Sukhios would be targets.
IR10 oil blockade
Iran lives for oil and lives off imported gasoline however in a war her goal will be to spike world wide prices upwards as much as possible. Her whole defensive posture is not so much to win a war but to insure that it is so expensive to the west that it never gets fought. However if it does get fought then Iran wants prices headed upwards as fast as possible in order to compel the west to reign in the US and it’s allies.
Signs of war,
So when will the war start, will it start? I do not know but there are a couple of things that can be tracked to give indications that hostilities are imminent. Look for the Persian Gulf to be devoid of carriers as the USN pulls its chestnuts out of the fire. Also look for more minesweepers and anti-mine assets being in the area. These things are most easily achieved during a change of station which can also cover the surge in escorts that will be needed. In a strange twist of fate neither side can afford a long war so one side will have to cry uncle if the shooting starts. Militarily the US has a huge edge, and if Bush hadn’t squandered US leadership with continuing folly of Iraq the US would also have the moral and economic edge to keep the world in line for a couple of weeks to prosecute its war. Now however the US has enough adversaries who will be negatively impacted by an oil war that it might well find itself subject to UN Resolutions.
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bigstick61
Junior Member
Well, I think that if Iran tries anything they will be defeated just like they were last time, even if they come out in full force. I don't believe they could hold or block the strait for even a full day. I think the lessons learned during Operation Earnest will and Operation Praying Mantis will be utilized in the fight against Iran and in the escorting/protection of convoys. US warships also now carry more machine guns than they used to; I've counted alot of tripod mounts on some of the OHPs, they pretty much all have 25mm guns, and they also have the new ICM rounds for the 5 inchers which are optimal for use against small craft, along with the new block of CIWS, and standard HC and HE projectiles.
I revised my article for completeness.
It depends on who intiates the conflict. If iran feels that a US strike is iminent and nothign can be dien to head it off she will act first probslby with mines and an attmept to get Her Kilos and aircraft out of the shooting barrel. If the first shot is a laser guide dbomb form a B-2 Iran is in a world of hurt but can still do some real damage with evne the tiniest bit of luck. The threat isn't to the warships, but to the tankers and the worlds economy.
It depends on who intiates the conflict. If iran feels that a US strike is iminent and nothign can be dien to head it off she will act first probslby with mines and an attmept to get Her Kilos and aircraft out of the shooting barrel. If the first shot is a laser guide dbomb form a B-2 Iran is in a world of hurt but can still do some real damage with evne the tiniest bit of luck. The threat isn't to the warships, but to the tankers and the worlds economy.
bigstick61
Junior Member
Well, during Operation Earnest Will, the Tankers faired pretty well, and the flow of oil continued. I think the same could be accomplished again. I think there would be some idications that we could take note of that there would be such an effort on their part.
alwaysfresh
New Member
Iranian Submarines = US coastline...
Iranian Submarines should be as secretly as possible sent to as close as possible to the US coastline. Using any means necessary (converting some cargo ships or something into a secret supply ships for the submarines). In the chance that a war breaks out, these submarines will then move into firing range of cities of the US and unleash their missiles.
Each submarine firing on two cities that would be potentially 6 cities targeted. This I think will end the war by public unleash on the government in the US, forcing to end the war.
Iranian Submarines in the shipping lines ok they might destroy some ships or they might be destroyed, as long as the US public does not notice it will not really affect the war... Look at Iraq.
Iranian Submarines should be as secretly as possible sent to as close as possible to the US coastline. Using any means necessary (converting some cargo ships or something into a secret supply ships for the submarines). In the chance that a war breaks out, these submarines will then move into firing range of cities of the US and unleash their missiles.
Each submarine firing on two cities that would be potentially 6 cities targeted. This I think will end the war by public unleash on the government in the US, forcing to end the war.
Iranian Submarines in the shipping lines ok they might destroy some ships or they might be destroyed, as long as the US public does not notice it will not really affect the war... Look at Iraq.
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