Behind the China Missile Hype

NikeX

Banned Idiot
Detecting and determining if smoke is needed means time. How much time will you have to spew out how much smoke and if the weather favors you? Not a lot.

Let me again remind you that the entire task force is capable of using smoke as well as applying SM-3 anti-missiles against the incoming DF-21

And weather works against the DF-21 too

The DF-21 must decide in a very short time who is the carrier and what is a decoy or smoke or whatever

And the carrier will be doing things to confuse the incoming missile like this

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All in all not an easy thing to score a direct hit on

---------- Post added at 10:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:17 PM ----------

Smoke in context of WWII and modern tank warfare are different principles. An ASBM warhead will be travelling at Mach 10. Rangefinding will do very little for the ASBM nor will it be guided in by somone pointing a laser.

Thanks for pointing that speed thing out. At Mach 10 the ASBM will have seconds to make a decision on where to guide itself. A near miss on the carrier will mean nothing. Its either hit the boat or nothing.

And clouds of radar reflecting smoke will present the Mach 10 missile will several targets.

With only one being the carrier
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Let me again remind you that the entire task force is capable of using smoke as well as applying SM-3 anti-missiles against the incoming DF-21

And weather works against the DF-21 too

The DF-21 must decide in a very short time who is the carrier and what is a decoy or smoke or whatever

And the carrier will be doing things to confuse the incoming missile like this

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All in all not an easy thing to score a direct hit on

And you do know the same principles apply for the SM-3 to work. Ironically eveything you point to how the ASBM has to get past, the counter has to do the same. So the ASBM has about as much chance of working. And how does weather work against the DF-21? It's not deploying smoke to hide itself.

Thanks for pointing that speed thing out. At Mach 10 the ASBM will have seconds to make a decision on where to guide itself. A near miss on the carrier will mean nothing. Its either hit the boat or nothing.

And clouds of radar reflecting smoke will present the Mach 10 missile will several targets.

You think we didn't know that? No one ever suggested that the ASBM uses lasers to guide itself in except you by bringing it up.
 
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NikeX

Banned Idiot
And you do know the same principles apply for the SM-3 to work. Ironically eveything you point to how the ASBM has to get past, the counter has to do the same. So the ASBM has about as much chance of working. And how does weather work against the DF-21? It's not deploying smoke to hide itself.

How does the weather work against the DF-21? A squall at sea can hide the CVN and her escorts. And without real time weather reporting how will the DF-21 know the weather in the target area when it arrives? It may be bright sun when the DF-21 is launched and pouring rain when the missile attempts to locate the carrier.

How will they home in on the target?

---------- Post added at 10:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:28 PM ----------

And you do know the same principles apply for the SM-3 to work. Ironically eveything you point to how the ASBM has to get past, the counter has to do the same. So the ASBM has about as much chance of working. And how does weather work against the DF-21? It's not deploying smoke to hide itself.

For your information the SM-3 would carry out the DF-21 intercept at the edge of space. That is far above any weather.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
And all that obscuring cloud cover weather will prevent an SM-3 intercept of an ASBM too.

For your information the SM-3 would carry out the DF-21 intercept at the edge of space. That is far above any weather.

And for your information that's all been discussed before. Which is why it's been written the ASBM warhead will take manuevers that high up which will prevent intercept.
 
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Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Let me again remind you that the entire task force is capable of using smoke as well as applying SM-3 anti-missiles against the incoming DF-21

And weather works against the DF-21 too

The DF-21 must decide in a very short time who is the carrier and what is a decoy or smoke or whatever

And the carrier will be doing things to confuse the incoming missile like this

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All in all not an easy thing to score a direct hit on

---------- Post added at 10:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:17 PM ----------



Thanks for pointing that speed thing out. At Mach 10 the ASBM will have seconds to make a decision on where to guide itself. A near miss on the carrier will mean nothing. Its either hit the boat or nothing.

And clouds of radar reflecting smoke will present the Mach 10 missile will several targets.

With only one being the carrier

Also at Mach 10 the "high speed" turns of a carrier will be comparably low speed and relatively unaffective in the missile's terminal phase. Like A mace said, a lot of the things you point out work both ways.

Depending on the AShBM's own terminal guidance -- say active radar, the smoke/decoys the CVBG lets off won't make much effect (unless it's the radar intefering type you mentioned before) -- just home in onto the largest radar return (there's the question of ECM of course, and also the AShBM's own ECCM). Also, the weather at sea imo would work against the CVBG's smoke countermeasures more than AShBM, because the CVBG will continue moving anyhow and will not exactly be continuously blanketed under it as the winds blow the smoke. Unless the CVBG decides to steam "with" the wind to try and keep under the smoke.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
How does the weather work against the DF-21? A squall at sea can hide the CVN and her escorts. And without real time weather reporting how will the DF-21 know the weather in the target area when it arrives? It may be bright sun when the DF-21 is launched and pouring rain when the missile attempts to locate the carrier.

How will they home in on the target?

Active radar which can see through rain?
And obviously there would be real time weather reporting. Once the CVBG is found by the PLA's sensor assets they'll keep a set number of eyes on it to keep giving the missile in flight updates.

For your information the SM-3 would carry out the DF-21 intercept at the edge of space. That is far above any weather.

Mid course maneuvers like A mace said, would try to defeat SM-3.
We're talking about the terminal stage -- and in my opinion a bit of rain and cloud won't change the equation too much for either SM-3 defending or DF-21D coming from above, in the terminal stage.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
This chart will help you understand where the intercept takes place. Notice it is above the atmosphere. I am sure you understand that is above all clouds and weather

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Yeah and it's a whole lot easier for the ASBM warhead to maneuver at that height to escape intercept. So at Mach 10 you pretty much have only one shot at it.
 

NikeX

Banned Idiot
Active radar which can see through rain?
And obviously there would be real time weather reporting. Once the CVBG is found by the PLA's sensor assets they'll keep a set number of eyes on it to keep giving the missile in flight updates.

And those links will get promptly jammed. Any more ideas?



Mid course maneuvers like A mace said, would try to defeat SM-3.
We're talking about the terminal stage -- and in my opinion a bit of rain and cloud won't change the equation too much for either SM-3 defending or DF-21D coming from above, in the terminal stage.

The issue we have been discussing is how advanced obscurants (smoke) like referred to below will be used to mask the CVN. You will notice that the discussion is directed towards ASBMs like the DF-21

And you will notice that these obscurants are designed to defend against terminal homing systems. Like those that would be used by DF-21

Take note of the bold portion of the quote:



"......The application of obscurants on the modern battlefield has been widely examined by U.S. Army strategists and operators for over a decade and a half; (2) obscurants are firmly imbedded in U.S. Army doctrine. (3) Moreover, the effectiveness of obscurants against a panoply of terminal homing systems, from the visual to the millimeter-wave spectrum, is proven. In simple terms, the particles suspended in the medium of smoke can be adjusted in size to absorb and diffuse radar waves emanating from the seeker heads of incoming antiship missiles, thereby denying any homing information to the missile. In the modern naval battle space, where antiship cruise missiles (ASCMs) are a principal threat, adapting obscurant systems and developing tactics and operational schemes for their use at sea is prudent. Given the stark potential of antiship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), this adaptation may be essential....."

---------- Post added at 10:58 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:54 PM ----------

Yeah and it's a whole lot easier for the ASBM warhead to maneuver at that height to escape intercept. So at Mach 10 you pretty much have only one shot at it.

Good let him maneuver. Now the warhead has to somehow get back on track and find the carrier. Actually to be fair there would be multiple SM-3 interceptors just to make things hard for the DF-21.

Surely you do not think the CVN will make things easy for the ASBM. The more he maneuvers the more he will have to use active sensors to search for the carrier. And going active helps the CVN and her escorts
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
And those links will get promptly jammed. Any more ideas?

The eternal battle of ECM vs ECCM, let's not get smug here.

And what exactly will be doing the jamming when the missile's flying in near space? the CVBG? or other satellites? Wut?
Not to mention actually knowing which satellites to jam not to mention back up data relay sats.

The issue we have been discussing is how advanced obscurants (smoke) like referred to below will be used to mask the CVN. You will notice that the discussion is directed towards ASBMs like the DF-21

And you will notice that these obscurants are designed to defend against terminal homing systems. Like those that would be used by DF-21

Take note of the bold portion of the quote:



"......The application of obscurants on the modern battlefield has been widely examined by U.S. Army strategists and operators for over a decade and a half; (2) obscurants are firmly imbedded in U.S. Army doctrine. (3) Moreover, the effectiveness of obscurants against a panoply of terminal homing systems, from the visual to the millimeter-wave spectrum, is proven. In simple terms, the particles suspended in the medium of smoke can be adjusted in size to absorb and diffuse radar waves emanating from the seeker heads of incoming antiship missiles, thereby denying any homing information to the missile. In the modern naval battle space, where antiship cruise missiles (ASCMs) are a principal threat, adapting obscurant systems and developing tactics and operational schemes for their use at sea is prudent. Given the stark potential of antiship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), this adaptation may be essential....."

Goodness, I was replying to your talk about weather not smoke, inhibiting DF-21D's terminal guidance. At least reply to my correct reply... -__-

As for a counter to smoke based counter measures, I assume adopting a type of multi mode sensor head and/or radar working in bands to see through such obscurants. Easier said than done of course but hardly undo able I imagine -- it's like the battle of radar vs stealth, neither can claim total victory.

---------- Post added at 05:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:06 PM ----------

Good let him maneuver. Now the warhead has to somehow get back on track and find the carrier. Actually to be fair there would be multiple SM-3 interceptors just to make things hard for the DF-21.

It would get back on track by data relay satellites guiding it... And to be fair let's say there are multiple DF-21's as well. And let's MiRV them as some analysts have claimed for the DF-21C.

Surely you do not think the CVN will make things easy for the ASBM. The more he maneuvers the more he will have to use active sensors to search for the carrier. And going active helps the CVN and her escorts

I dont' think you get the AShBM's kill chain, its active sensors only go active in the terminal phase.

1: Sensor assets find/track carrier, sends data back to AShBM launch.
2: Confirm target etc etc, fire missile.
3: Midcourse flight in near space conducting evasive maneuvers. Sensor assets keeps tracking carrier, sends data back to AShBM, mid course correction -- yes yes ECM/jamming etc. I want to add that mid course correction by data link from other sensor assets is one of the main reasons AShBM can work -- if the missile was fired at the location the carrier is where sensor assets identifies it, the carrier would be dozens, or even hundreds of kilometers away. I assumed you knew this, otherwise you wouldn't think evasive maneuvers of AShBM would need to be "corrected" -- even without evasive maneuvers AShBM would need to be "corrected" anyway! And how exactly do you think AShBM will use its own (relatively weak compared to satellites) sensors from near space flight would search for a carrier anyway? It's ridiculous!
4: Terminal phase. Once guided over the CVBG from near space, AShBM's own sensors go active and descends.
 
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