Behind the China Missile Hype

Good let him maneuver. Now the warhead has to somehow get back on track and find the carrier. Actually to be fair there would be multiple SM-3 interceptors just to make things hard for the DF-21.

Surely you do not think the CVN will make things easy for the ASBM. The more he maneuvers the more he will have to use active sensors to search for the carrier. And going active helps the CVN and her escorts

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What? Do you think the ASBM is going to do circles to escape an intercept? It's the best place to maneuver and it doesn't have to do it by much. I don't why you're so happy, it maneuvers anyways to go after its target. You're still conveniently forgetting there's not much time to do anything else since it's moving at Mach 10.

And what exactly will be doing the jamming when the missile's flying in near space? the CVBG? or other satellites? Wut?
Not to mention actually knowing which satellites to jam not to mention back up data relay sats.

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Where ever the DF-21 warhead is going it will he heading into the teeth of the CVN defenses and away from his support. So ships and other assets can do the jamming. Maybe a Growler or two gets into the fun.

As for a counter to smoke based counter measures, I assume adopting a type of multi mode sensor head and/or radar working in bands to see through such obscurants. Easier said than done of course but hardly undo able I imagine -- it's like the battle of radar vs stealth, neither can claim total victory.

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To the puny active radar homing equipment onboard the warhead a big fat cloud of radar opaque smoke would appear to be an inviting target.

Put several of these clouds in the path of the warhead and it would have to choose which is the CVN and what is a decoy.

A hard choice when you are traveling at Mach 10

NikeX said:

Where ever the DF-21 warhead is going it will he heading into the teeth of the CVN defenses and away from his support. So ships and other assets can do the jamming. Maybe a Growler or two gets into the fun.

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A few challenges to that. First, the distance from launch to CVBG could be anywhere from 1500 km to 3000 km depending where you look -- when will the jamming from the CVBG's assets start to take affect? We'll assume the CVBG's own CAP would be made up of EW crafts like growlers and destroyers/cruisers in formation too. What will the "radius" of the CVBG's jamming be? Outside of that the DF-21D can receive midcourse correction without assault, and that's even assuming EF-18s and aegis ships are capable of jamming satellites in orbit in the first place??

To the puny active radar homing equipment onboard the warhead a big fat cloud of radar opaque smoke would appear to be an inviting target.

Put several of these clouds in the path of the warhead and it would have to choose which is the CVN and what is a decoy.

A hard choice when you are traveling at Mach 10

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Yep I agree. What I don't agree with is whether CVBGs will be equipped with this "opaque smoke" and whether AShBM will be fitted with a sensor able to see through or counter it. Using smoke and other soft kill devices are not new to anyone, and the PLA's own ships have dedicated flare, chaff and smoke launchers. yet despite the fact most modern ships have these countermeasures nations still use active radar guided AShMs! They must be foolish, knowing that their AShMs will not be able to make the difference between a destroyer and a cloud of smoke launched by said destroyer!

My point is this miracle smoke you speak of seems hardly uncounterable, and if anything such countermeasures should already have been considered in development of the missile's seeker given it's not exactly new technology.

AssassinsMace said:

What? Do you think the ASBM is going to do circles to escape an intercept? It's the best place to maneuver and it doesn't have to do it by much. I don't why you're so happy, it maneuvers anyways to go after its target. You're still conveniently forgetting there's not much time to do anything else since it's moving at Mach 10.

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If the ASBM travels along at straight path it will be intercepted and killed. The warhead will have to act like a MARV to survive. China has this technology. But when you do alot of maneuvering you lose the track you need to find the CVN. So what will the ASBM do?

Maneuver to survive or try and maintain a targeting track. Decisions.

Pound the chest all you want but then why all the worry and work to counter then? The fact is virtually the same hurdles the ASBM has, the SM-3 and any ABM defense has too. So if you think ABM will work, the ASBM has about just as much of a chance to work. The fact is the SM-3 was designed to defend against ballistic missiles before it reaches apex and certainly not when you're the target area. Moving at mach 10 is why there's little time to react. There's a small window for the best shot an SM-3 has before the ASBM reaches apex meaning the ABM platform will have to be within range of all other sorts of anti-ship weapons.

NikeX said:

If the ASBM travels along at straight path it will be intercepted and killed. The warhead will have to act like a MARV to survive. China has this technology. But when you do alot of maneuvering you lose the track you need to find the CVN. So what will the ASBM do?

Maneuver to survive or try and maintain a targeting track. Decisions.

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Look. I'll spell this out. The AShBM is not expected to track and home in onto the carrier on its own until the terminal phase. In the mid course phase, it *does not need to keep track* of the CVBG -- that is done by other sensor assets like satellites, UAVs, submarines or what not, and they send their information back to the AShBM in near space flight who will be maneuvering and making corrections to home in onto the (relatively) slow moving CVBG by the data said sensor assets send to it.

TL;DR -- AShBM doesn't need to maintain a track, that's done by other sensors. It just needs to receive data. Its own sensor is used to guide it in the terminal phase to plant itself within the necessary CEP.

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And yes we all know this is vulnerable to ECM, but that's an entirely different subject. Just to throw you a bone, if you somehow managed to jam all datalinking between the AShBM and the sensors then the entire AShBM system will be useless. AShBM's own sensor cannot nor was it designed to seek out targets on its own in mid course (like most long range AShM's)

Bltizo said:

A few challenges to that. First, the distance from launch to CVBG could be anywhere from 1500 km to 3000 km depending where you look -- when will the jamming from the CVBG's assets start to take affect? We'll assume the CVBG's own CAP would be made up of EW crafts like growlers and destroyers/cruisers in formation too. What will the "radius" of the CVBG's jamming be? Outside of that the DF-21D can receive midcourse correction without assault, and that's even assuming EF-18s and aegis ships are capable of jamming satellites in orbit in the first place??

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Upon first indication of a launch of the DF-21 the clock will start running. And the DF-21 will be tracked all the way to its target. First by early warning satellite and then handed off to other satellites or sensors along the way. When the DF-21 gets into range he will be ready for an interception and a kill

You may find this bit of news below interesting. The F-35 is capable of tracking ballistic missiles up to 1200 kms away.
And remember F-35 is a carrier assets. It is using the DAS system. Now there is no place for the DF-21 to hide

F-35 Detects Missile Launch 1200kms Away — Military Forum ...

Yep I agree. What I don't agree with is whether CVBGs will be equipped with this "opaque smoke" and whether AShBM will be fitted with a sensor able to see through or counter it. Using smoke and other soft kill devices are not new to anyone, and the PLA's own ships have dedicated flare, chaff and smoke launchers. yet despite the fact most modern ships have these countermeasures nations still use active radar guided AShMs! They must be foolish, knowing that their AShMs will not be able to make the difference between a destroyer and a cloud of smoke launched by said destroyer!

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But this obscurant is a special smoke fine tuned to defeat optical, IR, and radars. The link I give explains it in fair detail. I urge you to take a look

My point is this miracle smoke you speak of seems hardly uncounterable, and if anything such countermeasures should already have been considered in development of the missile's seeker given it's not exactly new technology.

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Well somehow the seeker head on the warhead will have to see through these dense clouds of radar evading smoke. There is just not enough room for a strong radar on that warhead nor is there a great deal of time when you are traveling at Mach 10.

Too much radar then you don't have enough room for a powerful warhead. Where is the trade off?

The Chinese ASBM strategy has a problem

Detecting and shooting down are two different things.

AssassinsMace said:

Pound the chest all you want but then why all the worry and work to counter then? The fact is virtually the same hurdles the ASBM has, the SM-3 and any ABM defense has too. So if you think ABM will work, the ASBM has about just as much of a chance to work. The fact is the SM-3 was designed to defend against ballistic missiles before it reaches apex and certainly not when you're the target area. Moving at mach 10 is why there's little time to react. There's a small window for the best shot an SM-3 has before the ASBM reaches apex meaning the ABM platform will have to be within range of all other sorts of anti-ship weapons.

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No chest pounding here. Just facts for your consideration. Take a look at the F-35 links posted and see how another layer of defense is being placed in the path of the DF-21. This early detection will make things tough for the ASBM

F-35 Detects Missile Launch 1200kms Away — Military Forum ...




---------- Post added at 12:07 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:05 AM ----------

AssassinsMace said:

Detecting and shooting down are two different things.

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Change a few words and you have the problem the DF-21 faces. Detecting and hitting the CVN are two different things

So what? The ASBM supposedly has a range of at least 2500km. Still too late. The ASBM would be flying past apex if they were to detect it.

And by your logic which one would be harder to hit? A missile or an aircraft carrier?