Behind the China Missile Hype

[NikeX]

Smoke was used to great effect during The Battle off Samar which was the centermost action of the Battle of Leyte Gulf, one of the largest naval battles in history, which took place in the Philippine Sea off Samar Island, in the Philippines on 25 October 1944. As the only major action in the larger battle where the Americans were largely unprepared against the opposing forces, it has been cited by historians as one of the greatest military mismatches in naval history

Seven American Navy destroyers and 6 escort carriers fought and held against the entire Japanese center force which consisted of several battleships, heavy cruisers and up to 11 destroyers. The battleships included the Yamato, the largest battleship ever made

Today smoke is seen has having a new role in defense against ASBM and sea surveillance systems

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[Lezt]

Is there merit to KE sub-munitions? Sure, but from a practical stand point is it worth it, in comparison to HE? Nope. Here's an example of why HE is superior to KE in some one prominent ways.

@Lezt - The best APFSDS in use right now, the M829A3, can penetrate about 680 mm of Steel (inclined at 0 degrees) and 790 mm of Steel (inclined at 60 degrees), and travels at 1,550 meters per second (Mach 4.5), and solely relies on it's pointy end to do it's job. Like I've said before, using modern APFSDS as cluster-munitions is a dumb idea. In fact, if you'd ask me, the best idea for any KE-based sub-munition attack would simply be larger balls. 6" diameter balls of DU would weigh about 34 kg each. At Mach 10, they'd hit with the energy of almost 200 mj, or about 45 kg of TNT equivalent, more than enough to penetrate the flight deck, while retaining enough mass and velocity afterwards to do damage to what's below it.

i mean KE munition does have its merits. like... interceptor missiles will do little to no damage to it. cwis will basically have no effect even if it
hits due to the mass and velocity of it coming it. so basically ke rounds as they are inert... is resistant to lasars, ke interceptors and pe interceptors. this is especially true for sub munition,

 

[NikeX]

What more to say, "hello hear I am," than that. China just has to dazzle a surveilling military satellite which will alert carriers that a launch is underway and a Chinese satellite just has look for the plumes of smoke.

You can look for all the smoke you want but how will you or the sea surveillance satellites know they are looking at the carrier? As the pictures show other ships can make smoke too. So how will the Chinese satellites know what they are looking at?

To be honest the smoke would be only used as a final measure. Other methods and tactics would be used to fool sea surveillance satellites.

Actually the smoke would be used to shield the CVN from the homing sensors of the DF-21.

Remember: The DF-21 will have to find the carrier somehow with its OWN sensors and determine where to make its final approach. In order to be effective the ASBM must make a direct hit on the carrier. That is very difficult when your warhead is travelling at hypersonic speeds and maneuvering wildly trying to escape the SM-3s and all else that is being thrown against it to protect the carrier. And all that is happening in a dense electronic counter measures environment.

Finally time and time again obscurants at sea have shown a history of being a cheap and simple countermeasure to fool an enemy trying to hit you

Hitting a carrier is not the slam dunk that everybody wants to believe

 

[AssassinsMace]

Pardon my non-expertise but how does smoke prevent infrared and radar observation? Unless there's some agent in smoke that obscures, since when did infrared and radar not see past smoke?

You can look for all the smoke you want but how will you or the sea surveillance satellites know they are looking at the carrier? As the pictures show other ships can make smoke too. So how will the Chinese satellites know what they are looking at?

Well one of the hurdles of the ASBM is locating a target. So if China dazzled a US satellite observing for a launch to warn, that will set off alarm bells thinking a launch is commencing thus all carriers on the Western side of the Pacific will pour out the smoke thus giving China a location for Chinese satellites to observe.

Remember: The DF-21 will have to find the carrier somehow with its OWN sensors and determine where to make its final approach. In order to be effective the ASBM must make a direct hit on the carrier. That is very difficult when your warhead is travelling at hypersonic speeds and maneuvering wildly trying to escape the SM-3s and all else that is being thrown against it to protect the carrier. And all that is happening in a dense electronic counter measures environment.

Frankly we outside of those that know don't know how the ASBM works. So you can't say you know what defenses will work. You talk about how there work to counter the ASBM. You do know there's also the same work on the other side to defeat countermeasures.

Really if you want to think it's not plausible to make this weapon work especially given the prejudice against Chinese capabilities, what is everyone worried about?

 

[NikeX]

Pardon my non-expertise but how does smoke prevent infrared and radar observation? Unless there's some agent in smoke that obscures, since when did infrared and radar not see past smoke?

Glad you asked that question. Here is a link that explains what modern smoke can do

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And here is a quote from that article:

"....The application of obscurants on the modern battlefield has been widely examined by U.S. Army strategists and operators for over a decade and a half; (2) obscurants are firmly imbedded in U.S. Army doctrine. (3) Moreover, the effectiveness of obscurants against a panoply of terminal homing systems, from the visual to the millimeter-wave spectrum, is proven. In simple terms, the particles suspended in the medium of smoke can be adjusted in size to absorb and diffuse radar waves emanating from the seeker heads of incoming antiship missiles, thereby denying any homing information to the missile. In the modern naval battle space, where antiship cruise missiles (ASCMs) are a principal threat, adapting obscurant systems and developing tactics and operational schemes for their use at sea is prudent. Given the stark potential of antiship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), this adaptation may be essential. (4)

 

[AssassinsMace]

Yeah and all that depends on how the weather favors you. But then that's all a two way street. If it were that simple, everyone would be devoting a lot to smoke. It's not like creating smoke is a high-tech secret.

 

[NikeX]

Pardon my non-expertise but how does smoke prevent infrared and radar observation? Unless there's some agent in smoke that obscures, since when did infrared and radar not see past smoke?

Well one of the hurdles of the ASBM is locating a target. So if China dazzled a US satellite observing for a launch to warn, that will set off alarm bells thinking a launch is commencing thus all carriers on the Western side of the Pacific will pour out the smoke thus giving China a location for Chinese satellites to observe.

The anti missile defenses on the ships will detect the incoming ASBM and determine if smoke is needed. The dazzling of a warning satellite would not be enough to trigger countermeasures

Frankly we outside of those that know don't know how the ASBM works. So you can't say you know what defenses will work. You talk about how there work to counter the ASBM. You do know there's also the same work on the other side to defeat countermeasures.

Really if you want to think it's not plausible to make this weapon work especially given the prejudice against Chinese capabilities, what is everyone worried about?

But we do know that the DF-21 will need some sort of terminal guidance to hit the CVN. And there are only so many types of guidance systems in the world. The DF-21 will have to use something to try and hit the carrier. And advanced smoke is a defense against whatever it will be using.

 

[AssassinsMace]

Detecting and determining if smoke is needed means time. How much time will you have to spew out how much smoke and if the weather favors you? Not a lot.

 

[NikeX]

Creating an advanced smoke that masks a ship against a spectrum of threats is complicated but doable. And many nations including China have invested in smoke systems to protect ground systems. Look at these Russian tanks using smoke when crossing open areas

The smoke system to protect a CVN would be similar just more extensive and effective

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T-90 is often equipped with a Shtora ("curtain")system and Tucha ("cloud") smoke launchers. In this picture, Tucha grenades create an instant laser-opaque smokescreen, posssibly triggered not by the crew, but by the laser emission detectors of the Shtora.

---------- Post added at 10:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:06 PM ----------

A simple ballistic missile like DF-21 will be detected as soon as it comes over the horizon by the task force's radars. That gives the CVN and her escorts plenty of time to deploy countermeasures and defenses

 

[AssassinsMace]

Smoke in context of WWII and modern tank warfare are different principles. An ASBM warhead will be travelling at Mach 10. Rangefinding will do very little for the ASBM nor will it be guided in by somone pointing a laser.