AUKUS News, Views, Analysis.

coolgod said:

A lot of what you said can be applied to most western countries e.g., Canada, US. China bashing is the norm, but elites usually keep the government and media in check, to make sure they don't go overboard.

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Sure. I don't mean to suggest that there's anything particularly unique about Australia's internal dynamics on this subject. The US balloon incident was somewhat similar. As a general rule I think we should try to be aware of the internal dynamics on any subject of interest. After all, those dynamics are the difference between the US approach to Ukraine under Biden and Trump respectively. Speaking of entire nations thinking and behaving in certain ways and having certain characteristics can be a useful and even necessary shorthand, but we should at least be aware of the complexities we erase when doing so.

Blitzo said:

To be fair, I think even if the ADF did know that a PLAN SSN was accompanying those three ships, they would be wise to say they don't know one way or another.

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From a strictly military perspective that would be sensible. But if a PLAN SSN had been tracked in any sustained capacity, there could be a political case for disclosing that, both in relation to domestic audiences (reassuring Australians that the government is in control) and as an element in strategic signalling to Beijing. Of course the latter could always be done "privately" via active sonar or sonobuoys to alert the target that their location has been compromised without splashing it across the newspapers. The Albanese government likes to portray itself as the adult in the room, prioritising substance over symbolism, but there's always that temptation to, as Jacqui Lambie would put it, instead.

Lethe said:

From a strictly military perspective that would be sensible. But if a PLAN SSN had been tracked in any sustained capacity, there could be a political case for disclosing that, both in relation to domestic audiences (reassuring Australians that the government is in control) and as an element in strategic signalling to Beijing. Of course the latter could always be done "privately" via active sonar, sonobuoys, etc. to alert the target that their location has been compromised without splashing it across the newspapers. The Albanese government likes to portray itself as the adult in the room, prioritising substance over symbolism, but there's always that temptation to, as Jacqui Lambie would put it,

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instead.

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In politics, the less the public knows the better. You don't know what kind of problems you'll get if you start to disclose there is a PLAN SSN right outside Australia.

I think many people are not mentioning that an Australian plane flew over the territorial airspace above the Xisha Islands

"South China Sea" and "South China Sea" are not the same. The Xisha Islands are actual islands—not merely reefs—and almost none are man-made. China has an incredibly strong claim on the Xisha Islands, and has designated territorial waters and airspace around and above them. Regardless of whether Western countries agree, from China’s perspective, these areas must be treated like any other territorial airspace. An intrusion into them is not at all equivalent to a mere "freedom of navigation" operation near China.

00CuriousObserver said:

I think many people are not mentioning that an Australian plane flew over the territorial airspace above the Xisha Islands

"South China Sea" and "South China Sea" are not the same. The Xisha Islands are actual islands—not merely reefs—and almost none are man-made. China has an incredibly strong claim on the Xisha Islands, and has designated territorial waters and airspace around and above them. Regardless of whether Western countries agree, from China’s perspective, these areas must be treated like any other territorial airspace. An intrusion into them is not at all equivalent to a mere "freedom of navigation" operation near China.

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You are correct, but this line of thinking is not helpful. PLAN sailing around Australia isn't because Australia first sailed and flew around Chinese territories. PLAN is sailing around Australia because it can, no other justification is needed, notice how the Chinese government never linked these exercises to anything Australia did prior. PLAN will continue to sail around Australia whenever it feels like regardless of what Australia does in the SCS or in the Taiwan strait.