I only tangentially followed what can only be described as a total freak out by the Australians, but what I have seen of the responses range from the ridiculous to the downright pathetic.
They have been needlessly keen in going out of their way to needle and provoke China in the SCS and Taiwan Straits for little more reason than because they can and want to in order to score points domestically and abroad, and now a tiny PLAN flotilla does some gunnery practice in international waters hundreds of miles away from their coast and they are outraged and hysterically alarmed. Have a tiny bit of chill mate and stop acting like a total pansy why don’t you? It’s embarrassing.
The thing is most Australians, like most Americans, have
absolutely no idea that their country's naval forces have been snooping around and instigating drama thousands of miles away from home in China's "maritime backyard."
Obviously, some Australians will put two and two together, and realize that China is effectively reciprocating in kind.
Unfortunately, one should fully expect most Australians to
mistake the matter for unprovoked aggression because they tend to have no idea what their own government and military have been up to.
If you are so desperately afraid of the big bad panda bear coming to your house to pay you a return visit, why did you keep going to shit in front of his house and in his garden in the first place?
Mistaking one's self to be invincible or invulnerable tends to be a sign of immaturity, and Australia is indeed rather young by the standards of nations and civilizations.
However, this current situation does afford Beijing a couple of new openings:
1. Beijing call now basically tell Canberra: "Tune it down in our backyard, and we'll reciprocate in kind." Canberra isn't ready for such a de-escalation, yet, but it benefits Beijing to have an extra lever to pull moving forward.
2. The RAN and RAAF are going to have to devote resources to shadowing and surveiling future "visiting PLAN delegations." Considering the relative size of the RAN, that will mean fewer hulls for other missions, especially if the PLAN plans to "say hello" regularly.
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The
funny thing is that there are
144 VLS cells between 107 Zunyi and 568 Hengyang, while the entire RAN has a grand total of
200 VLS cells divided between three Hobart DDGs with 48 VLS cells each and seven Anzac FFGs with 8 VLS cells each.
Therefore, perhaps it will be right or maybe even wise for the Australian authorities to fear the "big bad panda bear" given the balance of power.
It's a joint surveillance effort. HMAS
Arunta was shadowing the group in an earlier phase.
Looks like they are going to circumnavigate the continent. Will be interesting to see how close they pass by HMAS Stirling (a facility, not a ship) on the south-west coast HMAS Stirling is currently undergoing upgrades to host US, UK and (eventually, notionally) Australian nuclear submarines, so PLAN may well pop around and say hello.
EDIT: USS
Minnesota SSN-783 is
at HMAS Stirling as we speak.
The PLAN obviously needs to deploy a network of sensors in waters near HMAS Stirling, and that can be accomplished more discreetly with submarines. Though surface vessels tend to be a part of the process too.
Makes you wonder if there's a Type 093 of some variety accompanying the 107 Zunyi led task force, or otherwise headed towards HMAS Stirling as the surface vessels draw the mainstay of RAN's attention.
