So, the incumbent Coalition (Liberal + National) government has lost the 2022 election and will be replaced by a Labor government led by Anthony Albanese as Prime Minister, with Penny Wong as Foreign Minister. Notably, Penny Wong's father is from Malaysia of Chinese descent. As such, she is the most senior political figure of Chinese descent in Australia's history.
In terms of Australia's relations with China, we are looking at broad-level continuity (i.e. strategic antagonism) with some limited opportunities for improvement. There have been indications that Beijing is seeking to reopen dialogue with Canberra, while the inauguration of a new government provides Canberra the opportunity to distance itself from some of the more rancorous developments under the previous government. Essentially, the opportunity is there for Canberra and Beijing to "turn over a new leaf" if they want it. Nonetheless, any positive developments in the relationship will be constrained not only by the high-level of continuity between the international/strategic perspectives of the previous Coalition government and the new Labor government, but by external pressure from what is now the political opposition, aided by Australia's powerful right-wing media, chiefly the Murdoch press.
This brings me to Peter Dutton. As I predicted in my previous post, former Prime Minister Scott Morrison has resigned as leader of the Liberal party following his electoral defeat. An unexpected development is that the most prominent candidate to replace him from the "moderate" wing of the Liberal party, Josh Frydenberg, has also lost his seat. This leaves Peter Dutton, as the most prominent candidate from the "conservative" wing of the Liberal party, as the prime candidate to succeed Scott Morrison as leader of the Liberal party. I have written previously about Dutton's anti-China rhetoric. It is likely that this rhetoric will continue and, now that Dutton and his party are free from the responsibilities of government, become even more belligerent. It is quite likely, therefore, that Dutton will be in a position to contest for the position of Prime Minister at the 2025 election and that he will run on an explicitly anti-China platform.
And on that note I am going to repost what is likely to be the most entertaining Albanese-Dutton interaction that will ever occur:
Agree that Dutton, if Leader of the opposition, will very likely utilise a strong anti-China platform at the next Federal Election. Noting that in Australia (and the UK amongst others) the election can be held at (almost) any time during the next 3 years. I have previously mentioned the possibility of conflict between the U.S. and China in 2024 as a result of internal politics in other countries.