That is part of the Anglo strategy against China in case of conflict. To sink its merchant marine.
Lethe
Captain
Australia is over reports that the Solomon Islands may permit some kind of Chinese naval presence. Canberra is very careful to use the correct language here -- the concern is all about the sovereignty of the Solomon Islands, see? -- because they certainly don't want any parallels drawn between Australia's obviously very legitimate and benign concern about the strategic choices of nations thousands of kilometres from its shores and Russia's outrageous concerns about the strategic choices of nations right next door. But occasionally the mask slips a little:
Surely Solomon Islands are next in line to be couped and "liberated" by the CIA
Lethe
Captain
It's a dangerous world for small (in this case, tiny) nations in the shadow of great powers, but it is not without possibilities. if Honiara plays its cards right, it can play Washington and Beijing off against each other and bask in the patronage of both. It's a lucrative game, but a risky one that can certainly end with a coup in the night.
Well, they (Australia) can either put up with this or fight China over this, by trying to essentially invade the Solomon Islands, or in their propagandist words: Special Operations for Freedom and Liberation of the Solomon Islands.
We'd hope that America would avoid further entangling itself by getting involved between the Dragon, and a confused Kangaroo.
Lethe
Captain
Large-scale violence lies at the extreme range of policy response options. Realistically, there are many levers Canberra and Washington can use to dissuade Honiara from this choice. The choice of tools is not a moral one, it's about cost vs. blowback.
Really, it's worth examining just how hysterical the Australian national security apparatus is about the prospect of a Chinese naval presence some 2000km from Australia. Consider article from Washington's pet Australian think tank:
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Do folks here think that China should start a bidding war with Australia to win the Solomons' favour?
Lethe
Captain
China reasonably wants stable arrangements that allow for overseas logistics and potentially basing facilities for its warships. Washington and Canberra are going to oppose each and every conceivable candidate across the "Asia Pacific" with all the diplomatic, economic, and covert means at their disposal (providing intelligence and funding for local political opposition being the most likely forms of covert intervention). The question for Beijing is about which candidates offer the best prospects for both utility and success and how to go about securing a stable, long-term arrangements. Whether or not the Solomon Islands is a good candidate for Beijing to pursue is a question I will leave to experts with more knowledge and interest in the minutiae of such matters than I.
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