Lethe
Captain
So far as I can tell, HMAS Adelaide is still stranded in Tonga. Two weeks now...
So far as I can tell, HMAS Adelaide is still stranded in Tonga. Two weeks now...
Lethe
Captain
Australia's Hunter-class frigate program is .
Also, the current Liberal government is pushing the narrative that China wants a Labor government in Australia:
Looking at this from China's perspective. The current Labor party has adopted a "small target" electoral strategy, seeking to make themselves invisible or indistinguishable from the Liberal party across a range of "wedge" issues, including national security. While there is undoubtedly a true broad-based bipartisan consensus in Australia re: national security, a consensus that is more or less aligned with the United States and more or less hostile towards China, it is also undoubtedly true that there is a wider range of positions within the Labor party, and a lesser degree of ideological investment regarding both our relationship with the United States and our increasing hostility towards China. Realistically, I would expect a hypothetical new Labor government to attempt to "smooth the edges" of our relations with China while continuing to operate within the current pro-US, anti-China paradigm. But irrespective of the real differences that leading Liberal figures such as Peter Dutton see between his preferred policies and those that he envisions for a future Labor government, the effect of such criticism is likely to further narrow the political space within which a hypothetical future Labor government would have to work. A future Labor government would be very wary of being charged with being "soft" on China (see the strenuous denials already offered by Labor leader Anthony Albanese) and no doubt the Liberal party and its enablers across the mainstream commercial media (which, at the risk of stating the obvious, thrives on conflict of all kinds) would be eager to pounce on any improvement in Australia-China relations as suggesting, at best, naivety and weakness, if not treason.
So I don't think these developments are to China's benefit. But realistically, it probably doesn't matter much. Because of course the character of Australia-China relations is determined as much by China as by Australia. And the kinds of relatively subtle changes that Labor might realistically bring to Australian foreign policy, are unlikely to be enough to mollify Beijing. The best one could really hope for is a return to official dialogue. It is altogether modest prospects like those that are now imperiled.
Also, the current Liberal government is pushing the narrative that China wants a Labor government in Australia:
Looking at this from China's perspective. The current Labor party has adopted a "small target" electoral strategy, seeking to make themselves invisible or indistinguishable from the Liberal party across a range of "wedge" issues, including national security. While there is undoubtedly a true broad-based bipartisan consensus in Australia re: national security, a consensus that is more or less aligned with the United States and more or less hostile towards China, it is also undoubtedly true that there is a wider range of positions within the Labor party, and a lesser degree of ideological investment regarding both our relationship with the United States and our increasing hostility towards China. Realistically, I would expect a hypothetical new Labor government to attempt to "smooth the edges" of our relations with China while continuing to operate within the current pro-US, anti-China paradigm. But irrespective of the real differences that leading Liberal figures such as Peter Dutton see between his preferred policies and those that he envisions for a future Labor government, the effect of such criticism is likely to further narrow the political space within which a hypothetical future Labor government would have to work. A future Labor government would be very wary of being charged with being "soft" on China (see the strenuous denials already offered by Labor leader Anthony Albanese) and no doubt the Liberal party and its enablers across the mainstream commercial media (which, at the risk of stating the obvious, thrives on conflict of all kinds) would be eager to pounce on any improvement in Australia-China relations as suggesting, at best, naivety and weakness, if not treason.
So I don't think these developments are to China's benefit. But realistically, it probably doesn't matter much. Because of course the character of Australia-China relations is determined as much by China as by Australia. And the kinds of relatively subtle changes that Labor might realistically bring to Australian foreign policy, are unlikely to be enough to mollify Beijing. The best one could really hope for is a return to official dialogue. It is altogether modest prospects like those that are now imperiled.
Lethe
Captain
The recent incident in which a Chinese warship employed a laser against an RAAF P-8 Poseidon aircraft in the Arafura Sea has predictably occasioned expressions of outrage from Australia's political establishment:
It would be useful to have a fuller account of the context of this encounter, or at least PLAN's account of it. For at first glance it is difficult to see how 'painting' Australian aircraft with lasers is going to serve China's interests. The political effects of this incident are as follows:
1. To further entrench the current government's anti-China stance.
2. To lend additional ammunition to the current government in its demonisation of the opposition as "weak on China", thereby:
3a. Reducing the prospects for a change in the Australian government and
3b. Reducing the opportunity space for a different government, if elected, to pursue a meaningfully different relationship with China.
It would be useful to have a fuller account of the context of this encounter, or at least PLAN's account of it. For at first glance it is difficult to see how 'painting' Australian aircraft with lasers is going to serve China's interests. The political effects of this incident are as follows:
1. To further entrench the current government's anti-China stance.
2. To lend additional ammunition to the current government in its demonisation of the opposition as "weak on China", thereby:
3a. Reducing the prospects for a change in the Australian government and
3b. Reducing the opportunity space for a different government, if elected, to pursue a meaningfully different relationship with China.
"Let them hate us so long as they fear us"
I think you're being overly optimistic; Australia by history, culture and society is inherently insecure over its "whiteness" and "western-ness"- this naturally makes any Australian government staffed by white anglos as perennially anti-Chinese. It wouldn't matter if Labor or Unity or any other party other than Libs were in charge, the Anglo Elites of Australia as well as the Hoi-polloi are guided by a persistent fear of being 'swamped by Asians' and losing any sense of "westernity".
The strategy of China should be to isolate, neutralise and weaken this colonial outpost of anglo-america and i call this a tragedy because Australia had a chance, dating as far back as the era of Malcolm Fraser, to truly become a "Switzerland of the Pacific" not unlike Jacinda Arden's New Zealand.
Thanks to the white supremacism of Anglo society in Australia, Chinese warships and recon units buzzing through Australian EEZ and rollback of Australian 'spheres of influence' like Tonga, are going to become a regular and increasing occurence.
Lethe
Captain
That is indeed the most obvious reading of these events: that China has written Australia off as a 'lost cause' and is therefore unconcerned about the political implications of incidents such as this one. If that is the case, it is certainly unfortunate.
But it is a mistake to believe that things necessarily have to be this way. I have long argued that relations between China and the west were inevitably going to decline as China's power grew, based upon a structural, realist framework of international relations. Nonetheless, within this basic framework of increasing suspicion, balancing behaviours, etc. there exists a broad range of possibilities that can be shaped for better or worse by particular persons with particular values pursuing particular policies in the context of particular events. That Australia-China relations were going to become more difficult over time was more or less given, that they were going to go downhill so far and so fast was not. And equally, nor are such developments irreversible.
I agree. I haven’t read about the Chinese response but I feel they should respond to the accusations. Is a clear poly of the current government to increase provocations to try and win an election, why is China silent? Or have they responded?
The way i see it, there are a few things the Australian governmental Elites could do to reverse the deteriorating political and security situation but it would involve Australia having to reject and condemn the racial supremacist philosophy of the Five Eyes. This would be equivalent to Australia casting itself off which is, frankly, impossible. For eg Australia could close Pine Gap and eject all US personnel and bases from the continental Australia, which is not going to happen so long as Australia remains an anglo nation wedded to the very idea of white anglo supremacism.
Culturally, Australia is not a genuine nation per se; it is a colonial backwater for whichever anglo hegemon rules the anglosphere, it's how Tony Abott can very easily become a servant of a foreign nation in the UK after being Prime Minister. What former head of state would allow himself to be humiliated in such a fashion of said state was not a genuine nation in the first place?
All I can make sense out of current Australia foreign policy towards China is that of an irrational fear, a fear of far flung frontier garrison geographically isolated and feeling insecure, aptly fit for descendants of a penal colonist like Morrison himself.
I guess to simplify things. It's gonna be rocky. Because China relations with US will be rocky at best. At worst.... I dun know. Since Aus follows US, we can kinda predict where China Aus relations will be in the foreseeable future. We already see this, with aus media reporting in China. It mirrors US more or less. The sinophobia covers across the political spectrum. Not just Murdoch newspapers.
^^quote from article
This isn't the first time the US and allies leveled this kind of accusation actually. I'm sure there's a lot of gamesmanship going on from both sides.