US and UK subs use weapon grade enriched uranium，in theory Australia could take the uranium out from sub to use them make nuclear weapons.
Also IAEA enforce NPT rules by routinely send people to check nuclear stockpile and reactors，nuclear sub is not subject to monitor by current NTP regulations，so that is an obvious loophole which will be exploited at some time if more countries follow the Australia suit
Its a good article explaining the serious implications this AUKUS nuclear submarine could do to the NPT.
Here are some notable quotes:
The United States and UK operate naval reactors in their submarines that are fueled with 93.5 percent enriched uranium (civilian power plants are typically fueled with three to five percent uranium-235) in quantities sufficient to last for the lifetime of their ships (33 years for attack submarines).
to LEU fuel, the United States and UK have no alternative fuel to offer.
This means. That Australia would need to fuel those 8 nuclear submarines with weapons grade HEU, and tons of them. It could either be imported from the US, UK, or made in Australia with their own uranium, but it doesn't matter. This is a blatant disregard of the NPT. Having tons of weapons grade HEU in the Australian inventory is just not gonna make China and ASEAN feel secure. It blurs the line between a nuclear and non-nuclear state.
One can only imagine the drops of sweat trickling down the neck of the International Atomic Energy Agency leadership in Vienna when an Australian delegation comes knocking at its door bringing the good news. The agency, which is currently battling to prevent Iran from acquiring enough fissile material to build a nuclear weapon—25 kilograms (0.025 ton) of HEU according to the internationally agreed standard—will have to figure out how to monitor and account for 100 to 200 times that amount without gaining access to secret naval reactor design information. Managing that feat while keeping its credibility intact will be difficult to pull off.
Exactly. The IAEA is already working so hard to not allow Iran to just have more than 25kg of HEU. Then the US, and UK just ignores the NPT and can setup a HEU fuel cycle for Australia. It won't be just 25kg, but tons of HEU that the IAEA needs to monitor. Not to mention that naval nuclear reactors are military secrets. Either the IAEA will be powerless to monitor the usage of Australian HEU. Or the US and UK needs to reveal its naval nuclear reactor designs for the IAEA to inspect, which is totally not happening. If Australia decides to be naughty and siphons out some amount of HEU from its nuclear submarine fuel cycle, it would be practically impossible to audit this without knowing the reactor design.
Other than that, what then would Iran and North Korea have to say with regards to this blatant NPT double standards?
What could happen if AUKUS moves forward? France clearly feels “
” by its Anglo-Saxon allies and angered to the unimaginable point of cancelling a gala celebrating the 240th anniversary of the Revolutionary War Battle of the Capes during America’s war of independence. In response, the
French could relax their position on not transferring naval reactor technology to Brazil as part of helping the country build its first nuclear attack submarine. South Korea just successfully launched a ballistic missile from a conventional submarine and recently floated the idea of starting a nuclear submarine program in response to growing nuclear threats from North Korea.
Seoul could now ask the United States or other nations for an arrangement similar to Australia’s.
Russia could begin new naval reactor cooperation with China to boost China’s submarine capabilities in response to the AUKUS announcement.
India and Pakistan, which already have nuclear weapons, could benefit from international transfers as well, possibly from France and China respectively.
Iran, of course, has already expressed interest in enriching uranium to HEU levels to pursue a submarine program.
As China had mentioned. This AUKUS deal could potentially set off a 'nuclear submarine craze'. SK, NK, Japan, Pakistan, and Iran can now covet buying nuclear submarine technology. India and China can also consider buying nuclear propulsion technology from France and Russia respectively. Who can say no to those things when the AUKUS so blatantly disregards the NPT? If the AUKUS nuclear sub deal actually materializes, then the US, UK and Australia have opened up their own NPT Pandora's Box.
