@Sardaukar20 what a great analysis, my hats to you bro, but I had seen a chink in its armor, domestic and economic problem, pursuing such grant strategy and ambition need support from the masses especially counting the cost. UK had just raise taxes, the US an unprecedented economic catastrophe looming, EU a possible breakup due to the pandemic, instead of looking to fix those problem their focus is China. For that I think the Chinese had already won. And the Chinese especially
Xi instead of responding back had just launch a major reform in a growing economic readying its people for a possible conflict.
Yes I agree. There are many flaws with this US war plan. The number one biggest flaw is the assumption that the CPC's rule in China is shaky. That the average Chinese would overthrow the CPC if they lose their Starbucks, Nike, iPhones, and stuff. Not to speculate things, but how China responded to the Wuhan Covid-19 outbreak is a true demonstration of China's readiness for total war. China and its people acted as if they were in an actual war. The govt, police, military, doctors, and average Chinese citizens all cooperated well to combat the virus and they have proved to be effective. How the Chinese people reacted with the attacks on Huawei, and Xinjiang Cotton showed that they were far more patriotic than the West gave them credit for.
The other flaw in this US war plan as you have mentioned is the public support in the US, and the US's own economic strength to carry out a war on China. But its the US elites and their bought up politicians who are calling the shots. Democracy in the US is an illusion. If there was true democracy, Bernie Sanders could have been elected as the 46th US president, not Joe Biden. The elites and ruling class morons in the US are quite detached from reality. They will continue entertaining the idea of a stupid war with China for the sake of their Anglo-white superiority. Hopefully, by the time they got serious with their war plan, China is powerful enough, to make them reconsider.
You're also right in that China is already working to counter this RAND 2016 war plan. There are many things like the BRI, double-circulation economy, green energy projects, RCEP, etc. But an alliance building with ASEAN countries is sorely lacking. Perhaps the greatest obstacle in this is the SCS disputes, and US political meddling in ASEAN. But China has to figure out a way to build some kind of an alliance with ASEAN nations for a common cause. Something that can overlook individual disputes. Perhaps an SCO of sorts for ASEAN. If and when the unthinkable war happens with AUKUS, having ASEAN to help resupply and provide access to PLAN ships would be extremely helpful.
Addressing only ASEAN and the Indian Ocean, there's a few ways around Australian access to the Indian Ocean or to make it obsolete:
Thailand is a neutral country that may be persuaded to either further develop its Indian Ocean ports on its west coast (i.e. Patong) and link them via train with east coast ports, or alternatively, build a canal.
Myanmar is current unstable and has backstabbed China in the past. However, with a more agreeable government, they could also be an important ASEAN partner on the Indian Ocean.
Thailand and Myanmar can access the Indian Ocean, but they would need to cross the Andaman Sea first. I would assume that when the AUKUS-led bloc blocks the Malacca Straits, India will happily join them. The USN should receive Indian support from their navy and their Andaman-Nicobar islands to blockade the Andaman Sea. Let's leave out the technical war discussions aside for now, because I just wanna talk about the US's POV. So on paper at least, Thailand and Myanmar could still be blocked from accessing the Indian Ocean. They are important partners for China, but geography do limit their ability help open an alternative access to the Indian Ocean.
Indonesia OTOH has direct access to the Indian Ocean from Sumatera. There is thousands of kilometers of Indonesian coastline facing the Indian Ocean. They also have the Sunda Strait, an alternative route to the Indian Ocean. Off course the AUSKUS war planners will aim to blockade that too. But unlike the MS, it is much further away from India, and is still quite far away from Australia for friendly logistical support. At least there, both the PLAN, and AUKUS navies are far from any home base. Unless off-course Indonesia picks a side. This is where Indonesia becomes pivotal in this tug-of-war between China and AUKUS. Nevertheless, suffice to say that if both the MS and Sunda Strait are blocked, then its practically an act of war on Indonesia and the rest of ASEAN.
