This isn't even the main problem. The problem is the Sea of Okhotsk is basically bottlenecked. Russia has enough issues having to keep multiple disparate fleets which can't easily communicate with each other. Maybe access to that area will become more important to China if trade over the Northern Sea Route becomes more significant. But right now I just don't see it.
Ask anything Thread
- Thread starter Jeff Head
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1. buffer state where NK takes on the risk of bordering the imperium and not China.
2. by game theory, its strategic arsenal is added to China's for defense, but not the opposite for offense, so NK bears all offensive risk while China gains defensive strength for free.
3. diplomatic deniability/liability. This is important as if China had bases in North Korea, China would be perceived as having a major role in North Korean policy, and would bear diplomatic costs for any perceived North Korean misbehavior.
The current arrangement allows China to bear little risk for greatly enhanced security while still maintaining trade ties with SK and Japan.
Thank you all for the replies am new to this forum and I really appreciate
When I talk about basing troops on the Kuril I mean it as a station after negotiations with Russia as a joint sino Russian navel base and logistics centre for the Pla navy that could enable china defend the vital northern sea route which as global warming becomes more intense will open up and serve as a new faster way to trade with Europe and also basically for power projection into the north Pacific especially after Japan has been neutralized the Kuril islands could serve as a submarine base for Chinese nuclear powered subs allowing the subs free and unhindered access to the Pacific which could be used to devasting effects during war such as to
1. Blockade Japan
2. Intercept US weapons supplies
3. Be able to swiftly move down from the Kuril chains and seize japanese island territories (not the main islands) but the outlying ones
4. Be able to threaten Guam and various US island possessions
5. Most importantly the Kurils could act as a base for china's H20 bombers which can further extend their reach into pacific and from the Kurils threaten all of Alaska
Especially now that Russia and china are intent on developing the northern sea route as a new maritime transportation route I expect that infrastructure in the Russian far east would see more development investment from China and Russia and another importance of the Kurils is that we don't have to worry about transportation costs as we could ship things to the island from Vladivostok and as more Chinese shipping passes there heading for the northern sea route it would become less Isolated and enhance the strategic position of China and also Russia
When I talk about basing troops on the Kuril I mean it as a station after negotiations with Russia as a joint sino Russian navel base and logistics centre for the Pla navy that could enable china defend the vital northern sea route which as global warming becomes more intense will open up and serve as a new faster way to trade with Europe and also basically for power projection into the north Pacific especially after Japan has been neutralized the Kuril islands could serve as a submarine base for Chinese nuclear powered subs allowing the subs free and unhindered access to the Pacific which could be used to devasting effects during war such as to
1. Blockade Japan
2. Intercept US weapons supplies
3. Be able to swiftly move down from the Kuril chains and seize japanese island territories (not the main islands) but the outlying ones
4. Be able to threaten Guam and various US island possessions
5. Most importantly the Kurils could act as a base for china's H20 bombers which can further extend their reach into pacific and from the Kurils threaten all of Alaska
Especially now that Russia and china are intent on developing the northern sea route as a new maritime transportation route I expect that infrastructure in the Russian far east would see more development investment from China and Russia and another importance of the Kurils is that we don't have to worry about transportation costs as we could ship things to the island from Vladivostok and as more Chinese shipping passes there heading for the northern sea route it would become less Isolated and enhance the strategic position of China and also Russia
I don't think China would want it even if they could have it. It would kind of make China responsible for its security after as the closer, stronger power. Same with Vladivostok. Even though it used to be part of China, I think today it is much more useful in Russian hands. Since it forces Russia to care about the western Pacific and not just rely on China and get a free ride like during Korean war.
Let Russia keep Japan busy, and this time Russia can pay the blood cost unlike last time during Korean war when China paid it.. this time it can be China who funds and arms Russians to fight against Japan. But of course china will also probably be involved somehow, unless it's a direct fight between Russia and Japan over Kuril Islands or their disputed territories.
Russia also needs that port in Vladivostok since it is the only year round port. I mean if you look on a map, the land itself is not that useful for China. If anything it makes China more vulnerable if China was to have to defend the whole of the Russian far east Coast + Kuril islands. It would also put china very close to Alaska and USA. so this way, just like china has NK as a non US bloc(and even anti USA) buffer zone, it also has Russia for the same thing. It doesn't get any better than that. And as for Russia itself, China doesn't really need to worry about the Russia attacking or invading China from there.. they need to worry about Japan and China if anything since it China wanted it could probably take it anytime(nukes not withstanding). And if things really got serious and Russia needed Chinese help, China would be able to use it easily as needed. Maybe china will even get to take it back from Russia in the future just as Russia took it from China in the past, but like I said, it is a bit of a hot potato and having Russia have a permanent port and access to west Pacific to counter Japan and also be part of a china/nk/Russia bloc in that region is very much in chinas interests. If China controlled like Vladivostok and kuril islands Russia would probably be very happy today since it's one less thing to worry about or having to spend lots of money defending. lol.
As far as China is concerned, most of the invasions have come from that direction. Especially Japanese invasions. So Russia being there and also being in a territorial dispute is a great thing as far as china is concerned. Even more so these days since USA and West have completely lost the plot and pushed Russia 100% into chinas arms/sphere of influence. It would be much more dangerous for China if Russia was "neutral" and there was chance of Russia switching sides and working with USA or West or Japan against Chinese interests but after Ukraine and related sanctions, that doesn't seem likely at all.
As for Japan, China has medium/long range missiles and subs and big navy already and also air force which is more than enough to threaten Japan from the mainland. An extra base on Kuril island won't mean much, and if anything it will be vulnerable by itself if China also doesn't have Vladivostok and all the Russian far east to supply and co ordinate with it. Which like i said would be very costly and open up another front for china to have to worry about.
Imo it would be overreaching for China to have just one forward base in Kuril islands and not have the whole Russian far east including Vladivostok. Chinas doctrine revolves around active defense of whatever they call it, and based around A2-AD umbrella. I think a lone base on kuril would fall outside such umbrella. Just see usa. They had B2 bombers and other jets like F15 in Japan, but they have all pulled them back to Guam or us mainland itself. Why? Because it's just sitting duck and would be too easy to be destroyed by Chinese missiles. I mean what are they even going to bomb anyway? Chinese mainland? Yeah, if they want USA mainland to also eat ICBM or SLBM. If Russia is already co operating with China, China can just fly to Vladivostok or whatever and attack Japan from there. So no need for permanent base. It would also go against China's "non interference" alliance foreign policy and the small benefits is not worth giving up that moral high ground after keeping it so long..
Lastly, China is not an imperialist power. It just wants to defend itself and it's interests. It doesn't need or want to do global domination or attack Japan etc. that will only lead to increased tensions and arms race, maybe Japan even goes nuclear after. Such arms race is not smart and does not benefit china really.
China is fine with status quo since it is winning either way economically and technologically. I mean, can USA or Japan or whatever blockade Chinese even though they currently have the "first island chain"? Can they block chinese import/exports from strait of Malacca and cripple Chinas development? Can USA attack or bomb Chinese mainland even though they have bases in SK, Japan, Oh and have B2s and B21s and B52s etc? They can try and probably can do it, but in reality they can't because japan, sk, ph, will cease to exist and USA mainland will also get destroyed in such a war.. So it's just a waste of money and mainly for their own egos. Nothing for China to really be worried about, and certainly nothing for China to need to create such offensive forward bases which will just make things more tense and could just lead to arms race and possible accidents and escalation which will only have one ending. Everyone dead. That is a fools game, let USA play that dead end game.
Russias current geography + situation means it has no choice but to act as a buffer state for China against Japan/USA. Just like NK is doing a good job as a buffer state against USA. I guess China is in the big leagues now when it has Russia as a proxy/buffer state. It used to be the other way around just 70 years ago. Haha. But yeah. China will take care of Korea, Russia can take care of Japan and Kuril islands and that upper Russian far east coastal areas.
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Apparently China is flying over Russia or NK territory to do patrols in sea of Japan. So china doesn't even need bases in their countries and can overfly them with permission most likely. I mean why not. Best of both worlds for China, and China will also share such info with Russia or NK if they lack the capability or resources to do the job.
Observations made as of mid-2022 indicated that no construction of a naval base is happening on Matua Island. Only an expanded airfield with more AShM batteries in the Kuril region being stationed there.
Many of those you mentioned above can be achieved with presently existing air force and navy facilities and installations in and around Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, which is arguably much better located (connected to the rest of Russia, opens directly to the Northwestern Pacific and Bering Sea, having access to better land-based offensive and defensive supports, better offensive axis into the NorthPac, Arctic and Alaska, etc) than the Kurils.
Otherwise, other Russian military facilities in the Russian Far East, especially those around Vladivostok and Khabarovsk, can also play similar roles with arguably similar effects.
I was reading the The Military Balance 2024 - iiss
It said that the army had 754+ SAM
and the Air force had 894+ SAM.
how true is this?
It said that the army had 754+ SAM
and the Air force had 894+ SAM.
how true is this?
No S-300, S-400 or HQ-22?