TW insurance is TSMC, if DPP allow its crown jewel to be taken over by the American (Arizona FABS) then its goodbye, will the American risk a WW3? You see China had declared its intention globally, TW is her core issue , she is willing to have a peaceful reunification and when provoke she is willing to fight and is preparing for one. And if TW is successfully invaded it will give China an extra strategic depth and may force the US in defensive to the second island chain therefore threatening Japan and the US bases. Now I ask you with all that posturing Japan is showing will she fight and die for Taiwan? knowing the possible retaliation which China will not hesitate as payback for all those crime Japan had committed during the SIno-Japanese war and WW2.
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- Thread starter Jeff Head
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JPN and ASEAN countries will not fight for TW alone, and neither will the US. However the US could convince them with propaganda to "preemptively check Chinese aggression". I'm unsure about the JPN government's attitude towards CN now that Abe is gone.
Agreed... TW only way of survival is to keep TSMC’s majority capacity in Taiwan... should that shift, I don’t think the US will give two Sh*t about Taiwan... since even if it give China access to the Pacific via Taiwan the US can still check China with Philippines, SEA and Japan... it may be less strategically viable but it beat risking US lives on pretty much suicide mission... further the US can always make a U-turn on Taiwan and claim its Chinese internal affairs with one-China policy whiles maintaining how they will ensure sovereignty of other nations
However the SEA/ASEAN containment will also become less and less viable as economic ties further develops... likely what will end up happening is the Quad defence line and they will do everything they can to make sure China is a regional power only...
All these noises is to pressure both China and TW not to rock the boat. What Trump had done is to provoke China to do something stupid. Most of the poster here in SDF knows that time is on China side, BUT if TW do declare independence then its carte blanche for a Chinese invasion as most country recognize the One China Policy.
Yep, I also believe with the current status quo China doesn't need to be aggressive with TW.
And may I add, if TW is successfully invaded, it may force the US to partially leave Japan and Korea and concentrated its forces in Guam. So a major gain for Japan in regaining its sovereignty.
And also a possible Korean unification under the patronage of the Chinese.
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PiSigma
"the engineer"
Just because something is proposed doesn't mean much. I propose all anti masters should go jump off a building, doesn't mean they will do it.
Taiwan's an island. hard to form a coalition without land to stand on.
It's not impossible but I doubt they would be able to achieve the widespread support they had with the Kuwait war. You don't need to think about Kuwait even, the Korean War also saw UN forces fight against North Korea, China, and the Soviet Union. It wasn't just US troops fighting on Korea.
In the case of Taiwan, like I said, I doubt you would see a broad coalition like what happened in the first Gulf War. You might see something similar to what happened in the second Gulf War I think. But I think it would be pretty much impossible for the US to do war with China on their own turf. It is a lot more likely they would impose massive sanctions on China and attempt to blockade it rather than an actual war.
Hi bro, there are only 3 powers to be reckon with, that is the US, China and Russia. With China and Russia (you may include almost all the former soviet republic) that's a very powerful bloc (raw material also human resources) you may include Iran in the mix. So if they use blockade will it be that effective ? (land route thru the B&R) And it work two both ways China control the South China Sea that is a very important passage way will that disrupt the trade flow with that of Japan and SK? The US will not be affected and is gung-ho for a military adventure, the push back will be from her allies who will bear the brunt of the destruction. So like what I said all this posturing is to prevent TW from declaring independence cause they know the cost will be horrendous.
Regarding sanction, who needed whom, China is already been sanction and within 5 years will almost be self sufficient of critical technology, finance wise and also with crucial raw materials (Russia and Iran thru the B&R) So if China successfully invaded TW within a couple of years things will be back to normal (just like what happen after Russia annex Crimea), there will be targeted /selected sanction and the noises about TW resistance and the usual state sponsor propaganda.
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