My assessment of the current US market is that substance is of little importance, what’s important is who has the most "promise", i.e. marketing, connections, etc. It’s kind of like the Chinese real estate market a few years back. How much value was there in empty apartments? It didn’t matter, there was a lot of money and nowhere to invest it, so it went wherever people believed there’d be growth, damn the value. What exactly is the value in BTC? Which AI company has prospects for profit? How is Tesla’s growth story going? Only Nvidia and SpaceX IMO have the fundamentals, but one designs hardware and has no connections, which isn’t sexy enough, and the other isn’t publicly traded. OpenAI and BTC have the brand, Musk has the connections, Nuscale, Palantir, etc. have the hype. Judging by Trump’s recent comments BTC is starting to get some political support as well.
If Trump/Musk is serious about turning off the gov handout spigot, there’ll be a recession and companies like Anthropic will be left swimming naked. Those with connections will survive, and a new wave of companies that manage to turn AI into useful services rather than those chasing the pipe dream of AGI will be the next giants in tech.