anatomy of an attack on Iran

I find it very interesting that tensions, and the possibility of an attack, are once again being raised... just as the US is trying to extricate itself from Iraq and Afghanistan. And simultaneously, tensions are high in Northeast Asia. Well... anything is possible.

In any case, the article makes this assertion:

Whatever Iran's "excuse", there is reason now to suspect the Tehran regime will back down if decisively confronted by a motivated and unified coalition of area states.

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"A motivated and unified coalition of area states" is simply Dick Cheney's wet dream!

SampanViking said:

Thanks, I do remember Planeman's excellent article.

I was really thinking about crew proficiency more than just the hardware. Remember the Serbian crew from the Serbian Air Campaign?
I actually find the OP article a little fanciful (I read it on ATOL when its originally published there) He seems to omit that even if friendly countries to Iran are unable to challenge the passage of the Israelis, they can certainly pass on the news that they are coming and probably other useful tidbits as well.
You also have to ask if the Iranians would be on their own or if "Foreign Advisor's" are in the country assisting the Air Defences generally and with "equipment" of their own?

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The only countries that I could imagine doing that are Syria and Turkey. Syria is basically a forward listening post for Iranian surveillance, as Cloyce said there are Iranian radars there. Turkey is obviously quite pissed at Israel for numerous reasons and feeling sympathetic to Iran as we can see from their enrichment compromise offer. Still, any decision to pass on info to Iran from Turkey would be made at a very high level, and I don't think its necessarily a done deal, there would be a lot of debate.

I've not heard anything, not even rumors, about Chinese or Russian advisors in Iran (because, really, who else could it be?). That's not to say it couldn't happen. It very well could. That would be an interesting rematch (Israeli air crews vs. Russian air defense advisors). On the other hand we could just as easily say that the US might make assets available to the Israelis.

The Israelis have a very strong ethos of "bring every man back". But on this mission, planes are almost guaranteed to go down, and it's highly unlikely to impossible that any surviving air crew would ever make it back. Politically, that would be a problem in Israel.

Israel would only make a first Strike. The rest must be done by the US then. They would have no alternative but to escalate. Iran has no chanche against USAF wich has bases on all sides off the country. Iran can only fire their rockets on good luck, they are dangerous enough for Israel and places such as Dubai.

I'm quite concerned about possible "creative" use of their missile forces.

For instance, their most advanced Fajr-3 missile is in the same class of DF-21 missile.

They may use it to shoot down US GPS satellites, since more than 70% of USAF ammunitions rely on the GPS system for precision strike, it would change the entire war scenario.

Bringing down a non evading target like a satellite is quite a easy task, it's not like missile intercept. There are many coutries around the world capable of this.


Coordinates for US satellites could be provided by Russians or Chinese.

cloyce said:

I'm quite concerned about possible "creative" use of their missile forces.

For instance, their most advanced Fajr-3 missile is in the same class of DF-21 missile.

They may use it to shoot down US GPS satellites, since more than 70% of USAF ammunitions rely on the GPS system for precision strike, it would change the entire war scenario.

Bringing down a non evading target like a satellite is quite a easy task, it's not like missile intercept. There are many coutries around the world capable of this.

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Coordinates for US satellites could be provided by Russians or Chinese.

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Not many nations have mastered the development of destroying satellites. The Americans have the capability to intercept low earth orbit satellites, the Chinese have demonstrated such capability, and the Russians have worked on such systems. The guidance requirements to successfully intercept satellites with a missile is incredibly difficult, and it requires technology on par with developing a anti-ballistic missile system.

cloyce said:

I'm quite concerned about possible "creative" use of their missile forces.

For instance, their most advanced Fajr-3 missile is in the same class of DF-21 missile.

They may use it to shoot down US GPS satellites, since more than 70% of USAF ammunitions rely on the GPS system for precision strike, it would change the entire war scenario.

Bringing down a non evading target like a satellite is quite a easy task, it's not like missile intercept. There are many coutries around the world capable of this.

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Coordinates for US satellites could be provided by Russians or Chinese.

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Like what Pointblank had surmised in his excellent post... I agreed that shooting down of satellite is not an easy task.

In actual fact, it is an extremely difficult task. And not many countries can do it. Plus why would Russia or China or any countries in question support Iran by giving her coordinates to the US satellites? This would only drag them into the war with US.

I doubt that any countries, except perhaps for Pakistan radicals, some middle-eastern countries like Syria and lebanon, and some other radicals from places like Afganistan, Iraq, Saudi, etc would come to Iran's help and these countries would not have the capability for tracking satellites.

Pointblank said:

Not many nations have mastered the development of destroying satellites. The Americans have the capability to intercept low earth orbit satellites, the Chinese have demonstrated such capability, and the Russians have worked on such systems. The guidance requirements to successfully intercept satellites with a missile is incredibly difficult, and it requires technology on par with developing a anti-ballistic missile system.

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For what I know, taking down satellites it's not that difficult. Just because only two nations have shown that capability does not mean nobody else can do it.
A satellite is an space object with a fixed orbit, a fixed velocity, and above all it cannot evade incoming attacks nor has stealth feature.
Anyone who can put a satellite in the space has the potential capability to take it down. The easiest way is to employ a lead pursuit interception trajectory to reduce closing speed between the missile and the target.
If I'm Iranian commander in chief I would pursuit that capability immediately.
I think this is the true reason behind international treaty against the proliferation of ballistic missile tecnology.

Taking down ballistic missile is a total different level of difficulty.

cloyce said:

For what I know, taking down satellites it's not that difficult. Just because only two nations have shown that capability does not mean nobody else can do it.
A satellite is an space object with a fixed orbit, a fixed velocity, and above all it cannot evade incoming attacks nor has stealth feature.
Anyone who can put a satellite in the space has the potential capability to take it down. The easiest way is to employ a lead pursuit interception trajectory to reduce closing speed between the missile and the target.
If I'm Iranian commander in chief I would pursuit that capability immediately.
I think this is the true reason behind international treaty against the proliferation of ballistic missile tecnology.

Taking down ballistic missile is a total different level of difficulty.

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The issue is terminal velocity. It takes very accurate guidance systems to intercept a satellite due to the speeds involved. You have an intercept missile traveling at 3-4 times the speed of sound while a satellite in orbit is travelling at speeds of rouhgly 6-8 times the speed of sound or more. The mathematical calculations that must be done is immense and it must be done at real time. Coupled with a high level of accuracy needed since an ASAT weapon must use kinetic energy, the Iranians simply don't have the level of accuracy that can be demonstrated for a successful intercept.

the used of computer virus by the israel AF against syrian radar.the virus "inserted" through syrian radio communication link or thru the radar?since all radar were interconnected this make attack by virus even more devasting.

The Iranians can't even build their own indigenous aircraft from scratch.. How in the heck are they going to shoot down a satilite?? C'mon now..