American Economics Thread

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Calculating GDP is a matter of adding things up. You can certainly use it in a time function, but attempting to do so in order to argue that electricity consumption over time must go up is not coherent. Variables affecting GDP are not fixed and of course the premise that you cannot expand an economy without expanding energy consumption is also not true.

This entire conversation has been increasingly silly because there are plenty of criticisms you can make of the US economy without trying to argue that US economic data just "makes no sense".
if you can expand an economy to an unlimited degree without expanding energy consumption means that at some point the relative energy expenditure is of 0 value so you can purchase all energy output for an arbitrarily small fraction of the total economy.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
if you can expand an economy to an unlimited degree without expanding energy consumption means that at some point the relative energy expenditure is of 0 value so you can purchase all energy output for an arbitrarily small fraction of the total economy.
Why would we assume that?
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
how else can I understand that?

Economics is a very bizarre thing at times.

Let's assume Joe Blow is surfing the internet. Then he likes what he sees at this website, OnlyPrevs, and buys some package deal or something. That is economic activity, and no extra use of electricity was required.

Then Joe Blow bets on the football game, he took the under, which probably winds up being counted in some way for GDP. Does not seem to me any extra units of electricity is used, but the economics 'multiplier effect' could be going on here.

Obviously we cannot do that with factories and machinery. The example here is the internet with e-commerce.

What they seem to do more of in the US is look at gasoline consumption. That was a long time ago.

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No answers here.

Just more questions.

LOL!

That's economics!

:p
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
you said:



how else can I understand that?

The statement.

1. An economy can expand without an increase in energy consumption.

is not the same as

2. An economy can expand to an unlimited degree without expanding energy consumption.

Although I suppose Statement #2 is possible in theory, even if wholly unlikely in the real world. On the other hand, Statement #1 is entirely true. GDP can in fact increase without an increase in energy consumption for a given time period.

What else was said recently that confuses you?
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
The statement.

1. An economy can expand without an increase in energy consumption.

is not the same as

2. An economy can expand to an unlimited degree without expanding energy consumption.

Although I suppose Statement #2 is possible in theory, even if wholly unlikely in the real world. On the other hand, Statement #1 is entirely true. GDP can in fact increase without an increase in energy consumption for a given time period.

What else was said recently that confuses you?
ok so if its a matter of degree then maybe there is evidence that the time for possible economic expansion without increasing electricity consumption is past, just that it is not reflected in GDP numbers yet.

social indicators are getting worse in lockstep with declining electricity use while GDP numbers on the screen are increasing. So which is right, the direction of both social indicators and electricity, or the GDP numbers on a screen?
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
social indicators are getting worse in lockstep with declining electricity use while GDP numbers on the screen are increasing. So which is right, the direction of both social indicators and electricity, or the GDP numbers on a screen?

I would suggest that you stop looking for confirmation bias. Or are you really under the illusion that all social indicators are universally going down? Or that the negative effect of covid on US is just going to linger in perpetuity?
 

broadsword

Brigadier
America is a service-oriented economy. That is where to look at.

Accrued rent or whatever they call it adds to the GDP calculation without any increase in electricity.
Insurance and lawyer fees hardly incur any increase in the meter reading with today's efficient cpus and SSDs.
Onlyfans only need human energy and a bit of computing power.

You guys can fill in the other examples.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
The statement.

1. An economy can expand without an increase in energy consumption.

is not the same as

2. An economy can expand to an unlimited degree without expanding energy consumption.

Although I suppose Statement #2 is possible in theory, even if wholly unlikely in the real world. On the other hand, Statement #1 is entirely true. GDP can in fact increase without an increase in energy consumption for a given time period.

What else was said recently that confuses you?


The economy can't expand without raising energy consumption too even in the shortish kind of term.

You need to create more products and services in order to introduce more money supply without causing inflation (real wealth growth).

And how do you create more products or services? Bet you can't do it with your electricity consumption stagnating/falling for years certainly.

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Yeah, you can also I guess count various financial engineering creations as GDP, like Bob sold some virtual Tesla shares to Steve, Goldman Sachs bought a virtual ES futures contract from Citadel, but that is just illusionary,

Ordinary people get no standards of living increased from that. Only 10% of elites get richer through void assets and fund returns.

But that is the whole point, force people to buy assets, to boost the elites, through inflation.

An economy can only expand through productivity, not from virtual accounting differences.

How can you prove they had any productivity rising through energy utilization improvements,

When their exports are falling, and production of all key materials and industrial products (the end results measures) is also falling too, etc.

Of course, shutting off
production plants (deindustrialization) in favor of more law offices will lead to less energy consumption.

The US didn't get better at "being more efficient" at utilizing energy like you keep saying, but it simply changed the structure of the economy.

So, just because they changed the structure of the economy doesn't mean that they can now "grow" without energy.

It simply meant that they could decline more and more. All the while their media tell you about their "giga GDP".

That is because, with every new
useless financial or litigation transaction, or bullshit job, they are one step away from surviving past another 5 years.

You are confusing real economy (productivity) growth, with GDP and GDP growth, which is an accounting interpretation.







This topic on power consumption vs economy growth has been beaten to death a few times. Power consumption is a good metric for manufacturing based economies like China. But the US economy is service based. It takes far less energy to create a trillion dollars in GDP in the US than to create seven trillion yuans in China.

For example, the healthcare sectors in the US economy added 1.8 trillion dollars, IIRC, to its GDP in 2023. How much more energy would it have required to produce 1.8 trillion dollars worth of cars, cellphones, and washing machines? I bet it would have been a lot more whether it was in the US or in China. And we are not even touching the financing sectors that probably use even less energy than the healthcare ones on a dollar to dollar basis.

In a sense, the US is indeed more energy efficient in growing GDP than China.


It didn't "add" anything my friend. It just made basic human health needs more expensive to people because private mega-corporations can rent-seek through regulatory capture and monopolization more and more effectively as time goes on (price gouging).

The same is true for education, utilities, telecommunications, insurance, housing, pharmaceuticals, even childcare, etc, etc... That's why you have ordinary people going mental over the costs of living in that country whereas virtual GDP bros continue to bullshit hard.

When we are talking about "services industry growth" in the US, that's what we really mean. Private equity firms and mega corporations eating all the other smaller corporations up, in every corner of the country, and then price gouging more effectively for profits.

I subjectively believe that for the majority of ordinary people growth stagnated a few decades ago and their real standards are now already declining for a few years.

The pie didn't grow, the elites just took a larger and larger share of it and convinced sheep of "GDP growth", and "line going up - it's all good".
 
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GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
America is a service-oriented economy. That is where to look at.

Accrued rent or whatever they call it adds to the GDP calculation without any increase in electricity.
Insurance and lawyer fees hardly incur any increase in the meter reading with today's efficient cpus and SSDs.
Onlyfans only need human energy and a bit of computing power.

You guys can fill in the other examples.

Basically an economy that "grows" on aether.

There is no growth of actual produce just more monetary or "paper" charges for services tacked on top of the few primary or secondary products.

For years, China did not even see services or other tertiary products such as financial instruments as actual parts of the gross domestic produce. The more services you have the more middle men you have between an actual good (primary or secondary) and the customer. An all-service economy is inflationary because it is similiar to buying an orange through six different middle men who upcharges it for their own cut at every step.

Basically growth in nominal GDP is mostly inflation of the same number of goods. There is no growth in the real economy which explains why the US's electricity consumption in 2023 despite a "good" year.

The three-sector model in economics divides economies into three sectors of activity: extraction of raw materials (primary), manufacturing (secondary), and service industries which exist to facilitate the transport, distribution and sale of goods produced in the secondary sector (tertiary).
 
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