American Economics Thread

GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
There is no way to expand a modern economy without a corresponding expansion in electricity.

In fact, the idea that you could expand anything (jobs, infrastructure, services, etc.) based only on current wattage is completely ludicrous. The idea being pushed here is you can grow real things out of nothing.

That is simply not possible in the real world or real economy.

But you could do something like that in the netherworld of finance. By printing $5T in covid welfare and another $5T in quantitative easing after 2008, you can instantly create $10T worth of inflated "produce" in the past two decades without expansion of electricity.
 

doggydogdo

Junior Member
Registered Member
This means that 6.4% of combined electricity demand is for lighting. A CFL light is ~75% more efficient than an incandescent lightbulb, a LED light is ~90% more efficient than an incandescent. Thus, even if everyone switched from incandescent to CFLs (which would underestimate electricity consumption declines), that would’ve caused electricity demand to decline by 19.2%
How would it cause demand to decline by 19% if total light usage is only 6.4%?
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
There is no way to expand a modern economy without a corresponding expansion in electricity.

In fact, the idea that you could expand anything (jobs, infrastructure, services, etc.) based only on current wattage is completely ludicrous. The idea being pushed here is you can grow real things out of nothing.

That is simply not possible in the real world or real economy.

But you could do something like that in the netherworld of finance. By printing $5T in covid welfare and another $5T in quantitative easing after 2008, you can instantly create $10T worth of inflated "produce" in the past two decades without expansion of electricity.
yep this is a mathematical truth.

let g(t) be GDP as a function of time, characterized in general by a function of the form g(t) = g(0)(k)^t

let f(t) be absolute value of electricity as a function of time, characterized in general by a function of the form f(t) = f(0)(n)^t

if n < k, then: lim (t->infinity) f(t)/g(t) = 0.

since f(t) becomes negligible compared to g(t), it is also negligible compared to any positive constant times g(t). that means that if the trend continues, minimum wage can buy the entire electricity supply, and the economy collapses. since this is unphysical, it means there must be a floor to f(t)/g(t). that means that f(t) must increase if g(t) increases. yet we do not see that.
 

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
A dead giveaway that the electricity consumption stagnating is from efficiency gains, is once again, the household sector. Residential electricity has remained flat for 2 decades, even as the US population has increased by 17%, air conditioning popularity has exploded, heat wave frequency has increased, and home sizes have increased. If GDP was one-to-one with electricity demand, per person living standards would’ve had to decline

You don't think per person living standards with regards to heating and cooling could have declined? If you reject this, then all the billions poured into propaganda about climate change, conserving energy would have gone to waste.

Utility companies have been pushing for smart thermostats and smart grids for a while, many grids can remotely control your AC during peak hours. No one is denying the increases to energy efficiency over the past X years, but many are skeptical of the amount of increase of the real US economy in the same time period given the the trends in electricity consumption.
 

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
As previously explained and no one seems to have disputed: if the US economy had stagnated in everything but hvac and lighting efficiency, then electricity demand would have to drop by 30%. Instead, it has remained flat. Further, air conditioning in particular has exploded in popularity over the past 2 decades so that’s “better” in that there’s now access to technology that previously didn’t exist.
Not sure where you randomly pull out 30% from. You basically assumed fluorescent light and LEDs were invented posted 2000s, and everyone (residential and commercial) only switched away from incandescent starting from then.

You assumed the HVAC efficiency trends of the US was somehow the same as that of New Zealand, look at how SEER is calculated to see why this is a bad idea. You also assumed the efficiency of commercial and industrial HVAC followed those of residential HVAC, which is quite the claim.

You also squashed ventilation and refrigeration into space heating/cooling catergory for your calculations, even though they are totally different in terms of energy efficiency.

Climate change impacted the US over the past 2 decades, the cooling days increased for most of the US, I don't think you took this into account.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
You literally just put your economic nonsense into charts and expect me to believe that? I asked you for concrete numbers to justify your reasoning about how US obtains "real" economic growth without increasing electricity consumption rather through "energy efficiency", you've just quote more economics BS that doesn't prove a single thing.

Uh no. Stop lying. Here's exactly what you said.

"Improvement to energy efficiency", please explain in your own words what this concretely means in terms of electricity usage, and provide numerical examples."

You asked for what "concretely" improvements in electric usage is. You didn't ask for "concrete numbers to justify my reasoning", or whatever you were trying to say. I didn't quote "economic bs". I provided exact evidence of how US electricity usage went down and you didn't like it.

If economists can't even agree that this effect is important, we can probably drop this effect right here.
Economists can't agree on how much human activities contribute to climate change. Can probably drop the entire "climate change" matter entirely.

Are you also disputing that climate change exists and it's very real? Or you are going to take back your statement on the basis of its poor logic? Pick one.
But furthermore, this effect doesn't really help your point, since if this effect exists, it should only make us question more about how the US obtained real economic growth without increasing electricity consumption.

The effect does help my point and it shouldn't make us "question" anything. GDP isn't electricity consumption. GDP is Gross Domestic Product. Playing on my computer for 1 hour and a software developer taking 1 hour to compile some code consumes the same amount of electricity, yet one produces no economic value while the other one does.

Shall I provide more examples or are you still puzzled by how similar inputs can produce vastly different economic output?

Or to put in another way, one which I've repeated ad nauseum but you still refuse to grasp.

Electricity consumption is not a proxy for economic growth.

For some reason you lot are perfectly capable of understand why different economic measures, such as the stock market does not encapsulate the economic reality of a regular person, or even the GDP or productivity of a given country. Yet you seem to be unable to understand how one measure, electricity consumption, is not indicative of the economic reality of a regular person or even the GDP or productivity of a given country.

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Yes US commercial buildings cut their electrical usage per square foot by 50% since 1979, primarily due to more energy efficient lighting, but that doesn't even begin to account for the increase in GDP US experienced during that time. US commercial buildings only account for a tiny fraction of overall electricity usage in the country, so this effect is minuscule.

Yeah? How about heating and cooling which accounts for nearly 30% of all residential US electricity use? Modern air conditioning is 50%+ more efficient than their 1990 counterparts.

How about more efficient production methods, more efficient equipment, structural shifts away from low-value (heavy) manufacturing towards higher-value (light) manufacturing? Steel-making alone, has seen 20%+ reduction in energy intensity per ton since 1980.


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US energy intensity dropped according to this energy consumption/GDP definition, I don't see how that supports your point either regarding energy efficiency. Domestic factories closing, commercial buildings opening to support more middle man and financial industries, this would increase energy intensity. Absolutely nothing to do with energy efficiency.

Uh no. What you're saying makes no sense.

The structure of the US economy hasn't significantly changed since the year 2000. GDP grew while US energy demand largely flat-lined. That's indicative of energy intensity decreasing per sector due to improvements in energy efficiency. You were provided plenty of examples in two replies now.

You didn't like the answer, despite the numbers being rather concrete. Instead, you want to insist on some ridiculous conspiracy theory that United States fakes its numbers or mis-represents its GDP growth. Sorry, but that's not how it works. Heating, air conditioning, manufacturing, and other sources of electricity demand have all gotten more efficient over time. That's just a fact.

And if you're upset by the fact that manufacturing a Tesla Model 3, is not really any more energy intensive than manufacturing a BYD Seal, yet Tesla gets to charge a higher price for it (contributing more to GDP), that's not really my fault. That's just how markets work, and the price isn't determined by who "spent more electricity" making the car.

But again, and I'll say it again just so this idea really gets through to people.

Electricity consumption is not a proxy for economic growth.

But it is a useful indicator, one of many.
 

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
You asked for what "concretely" improvements in electric usage is. You didn't ask for "concrete numbers to justify my reasoning", or whatever you were trying to say. I didn't quote "economic bs". I provided exact evidence of how US electricity usage went down and you didn't like it.
You literally didn't.

The effect does help my point and it shouldn't make us "question" anything. GDP isn't electricity consumption. GDP is Gross Domestic Product. Playing on my computer for 1 hour and a software developer taking 1 hour to compile some code consumes the same amount of electricity, yet one produces no economic value while the other one does.
Climate change wasn't invented by economists to write papers, your rebound effect is. You still didn't explain how this supposed effect helps your point.

Electricity consumption is not a proxy for economic growth.
Most people here would disagree with you, repeating it ad nauseum doesn't make it more true.

For some reason you lot are perfectly capable of understand why different economic measures, such as the stock market does not encapsulate the economic reality of a regular person, or even the GDP or productivity of a given country. Yet you seem to be unable to understand how one measure, electricity consumption, is not indicative of the economic reality of a regular person or even the GDP or productivity of a given country.
Because real economic activity requires change, and what is energy, literally change/ability to do change. What is the most dominant and useful form of energy in modern day life, electrical energy.

Yeah? How about heating and cooling which accounts for nearly 30% of all residential US electricity use? Modern air conditioning is 50%+ more efficient than their 1990 counterparts.
I already conceded that modern residential AC units are slightly more efficient, this alone is not sufficient to support your main point.

How about more efficient production methods, more efficient equipment, structural shifts away from low-value (heavy) manufacturing towards higher-value (light) manufacturing?
You're absolutely right, that made in US sticker and packaging is definitely more valuable than the actual products from China which require much more energy to make.

Steel-making alone, has seen 20%+ reduction in energy intensity per ton since 1980.
Energy intensity? Why are you switching metrics now? 20% less coal has no impact on usage electricity consumption. Switching from coal to electricity is also reduction in energy intensity, but it definitely requires more electricity consumption!

Uh no. What you're saying makes no sense.

The structure of the US economy hasn't significantly changed since the year 2000. GDP grew while US energy demand largely flat-lined. That's indicative of energy intensity decreasing per sector due to improvements in energy efficiency. You were provided plenty of examples in two replies now.

No, I've refuted your energy intensity point in commercial buildings previously where your source quoted,
Energy intensity—calculated as total energy consumption divided by real gross domestic product (GDP)
It shows nothing about energy efficiency, or per sector electricity usage.

And if you're upset by the fact that manufacturing a Tesla Model 3, is not really any more energy intensive than manufacturing a BYD Seal, yet Tesla gets to charge a higher price for it (contributing more to GDP), that's not really my fault. That's just how markets work, and the price isn't determined by who "spent more electricity" making the car.
More Advertising hype, autonomous driving vapourware especially from Model 3 is exactly the type of fake economic growth that is used to pad US GDP. You brought up a terrible example.

But again, and I'll say it again just so this idea really gets through to people.

Electricity consumption is not a proxy for economic growth.

But it is a useful indicator, one of many.
Keep deluding yourself with your fake economic stats, USSA jokes are back in fashion.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Not sure where you randomly pull out 30% from. You basically assumed fluorescent light and LEDs were invented posted 2000s, and everyone (residential and commercial) only switched away from incandescent starting from then.
I have been using CFLs since like the late 1980s. Most commercial and industrial users used tubular fluorescent light bulbs. Tubular fluorescent has been around for a long time since like the 1930s. LED light bulbs are much better though, in terms of color rendition, and they are also slightly more efficient.
His assumption that everyone and everything was using incandescent before LED happened is misguided.

You assumed the HVAC efficiency trends of the US was somehow the same as that of New Zealand, look at how SEER is calculated to see why this is a bad idea. You also assumed the efficiency of commercial and industrial HVAC followed those of residential HVAC, which is quite the claim.

You also squashed ventilation and refrigeration into space heating/cooling catergory for your calculations, even though they are totally different in terms of energy efficiency.
Refrigeration and HVAC equipment efficiency initially went down because of them stopping the use of freon. Only after they switched to more efficient refrigerant formulations did it get to be more efficient than freon.

Considering how people seldom change anything in the US until it utterly fails though, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people were still using old equipment. At least in industrial and commercial.
 
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HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
You literally didn't.
I literally did.
Climate change wasn't invented by economists to write papers, your rebound effect is. You still didn't explain how this supposed effect helps your point.

You don't understand how increased energy efficiency helps increase household consumption?

Most people here would disagree with you, repeating it ad nauseum doesn't make it more true.

I don't really care how many people agree or disagree with me. Being right isn't determined by decmoracy.

Because real economic activity requires change, and what is energy, literally change/ability to do change. What is the most dominant and useful form of energy in modern day life, electrical energy.

This isn't a rebuttal. And energy consumption isn't a proxy for economic growth either.

I already conceded that modern residential AC units are slightly more efficient, this alone is not sufficient to support your main point.

You haven't demonstrated why it's not sufficient to support my main claim. Nor am I obligated to prove my point down to the last percentage. Why should I do my work for free when I already demonstrated substantial energy savings in multiple end-use sectors? I don't. It's up to you to show me why my explanation is not sufficient. You have not done so.

You're absolutely right, that made in US sticker and packaging is definitely more valuable than the actual products from China which require much more energy to make.


Energy intensity? Why are you switching metrics now? 20% less coal has no impact on usage electricity consumption. Switching from coal to electricity is also reduction in energy intensity, but it definitely requires more electricity consumption!

You're saying we switched from coal to electricity 20 years ago? Seriously?
No, I've refuted your energy intensity point in commercial buildings previously where your source quoted,

You didn't refute it. You conceded the point. Here's what you said,

"Yes US commercial buildings cut their electrical usage per square foot by 50% since 1979, primarily due to more energy efficient lighting, but that doesn't even begin to account for the increase in GDP US experienced during that time."

Why would reductions in electrical usage per square foot account for increase in GDP? GDP doesn't increase because you use more electricity. GDP increases because you've created more economic value in a given year. Cutting electricity usage in commercial and residential use means,

A. You can use the energy more efficiently by allocating it to more uses.
B. You cut energy costs which means you can allocate your cash to either pay more to yourself or workers (increasing personal consumption or investment), or spend the money on other capital improvements (which leads back to point A).

Where do you think the saved energy goes? Disappears into thin air?

It shows nothing about energy efficiency, or per sector electricity usage.

We already addressed per sector electricity usage, and what do you think happens when energy intensity goes down, electrical generation stays flat, but GDP grows? It is indicative that efficiency has gone up.

But we don't need indicators, we already have concrete examples of how electrical usage is more efficient. From residential use, to commercial use, to even industrial use.

Or are you under the impression that refrigerators are just as efficient as they were in 1990? 2000? 2010?

How about cooling and heating (which is a major consumer of electricity in both commercial, industrial, and residential sectors)?

How about manufacturing? Mining? Infrastructure consumption and grid efficiency? Are you under the impression all of this has stayed still in the year 1980 and did not become more efficient over time?

More Advertising hype, autonomous driving vapourware especially from Model 3 is exactly the type of fake economic growth that is used to pad US GDP. You brought up a terrible example.

I brought up an excellent example because it is illustrative that you don't know what GDP is. GDP isn't what you consider "real" or whatever. If "Hype" can be monetized, it's part of GDP. In fact, marketing contributes to GDP while consuming very little electrical energy. You don't need to build a nuclear reactor to think up of an ad.

Similarly, regardless of what you feeling about "fake economic growth" is, the fact of the matter is that American cars generate more value than Chinese cars precisely because they sell for more money. Like I said before, if that upsets you, go look at PPP adjusted numbers instead of complaining about nominal values.
Keep deluding yourself with your fake economic stats, USSA jokes are back in fashion.

You're literally this guy.

1728236890116.png

Let's touch base in 5 years when United States is still fine, and then another 10 when US survives another recession, and then 15 when United States is, miraculously around, its citizens fairly well off, and its economy still humming along.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
Considering how people seldom change anything in the US until it utterly fails though, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people were still using old equipment. At least in industrial and commercial.

You don't replace old equipment just because new equipment comes out. It's simple math to figure out whether you are losing more money by operating old equipment vs buying new equipment. If you can even buy it at all. Some municipalities simply can't afford it because the original utilities, equipment, buildings were funded with a federal grant rather than local revenue.
 
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