American Economics Thread

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Why would the cost of electricity approach zero? What is the market mechanism that would drive down the price?
the cost does not need to approach 0. the growth rate in electricity price just needs to grow slower than the price of all other assets.

eventually, it will be a negligible share of the economy, and thus at some point an entity that commands a non-negligible share can purchase the entire output of the electricity sector.
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
the cost does not need to approach 0. the growth rate in electricity price just needs to grow slower than the price of all other assets.

eventually, it will be a negligible share of the economy, and thus at some point an entity that commands a non-negligible share can purchase the entire output of the electricity sector.
electricity is a carrier of energy not a source, so unless AI solves fusion and scales it up, given global diminishing EROEI, it doesn't seem possible for electricity to get cheaper, only more expensive in fact.... since its the multiplier effect of cheap energy that gives modern money most of its purchasing value, not the other way around....
 

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
US investments in AI computing should be consuming a lot more electricity. But they are not, so US AI modelling is probably a big scandal.
Nah, it might be real enough.

Just that, the increase is covering the decrease in other sectors and the likes, which might result in total US, national electricity usage and generation not going up.
 

Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
United States is a fully developed country that doesn't really have any massive projects going on. China is not.

And that's not an insult, but China has a lot more room to grow. 1.5 Billion people are going to need a lot more electricity and goods than 300 million people, and that's discounting the fact that China is also the world's factory, which again, means more electricity. Just using napkin math, China's electricity demand should be 5 times higher than United States', it's not close to that yet.
Generally you are correct that energy usage is also an inaccurate measurement of absolute economic levels, but most likely the discrepancy in electricity use per capita between US and China is simply due a difference in efficiency.

China already has similar usage/capita as other 1st world countries like Germany and France.

Energy usage favor countries that are moving ahead in many areas at once, no matter what stage of development they are at. There's no such thing as fully developed. But it is not either a direct proxy for economy size.
 

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
You literally just put your economic nonsense into charts and expect me to believe that? I asked you for concrete numbers to justify your reasoning about how US obtains "real" economic growth without increasing electricity consumption rather through "energy efficiency", you've just quote more economics BS that doesn't prove a single thing.

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Generally, economists and researchers seem to agree that there exists a rebound effect, but they disagree about its volume and importance.
If economists can't even agree that this effect is important, we can probably drop this effect right here.
In
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and
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, the rebound effect (or take-back effect) is the reduction in expected gains from new technologies that increase the efficiency of
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use, because of behavioral or other systemic responses
But furthermore, this effect doesn't really help your point, since if this effect exists, it should only make us question more about how the US obtained real economic growth without increasing electricity consumption.

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Yes US commercial buildings cut their electrical usage per square foot by 50% since 1979, primarily due to more energy efficient lighting, but that doesn't even begin to account for the increase in GDP US experienced during that time. US commercial buildings only account for a tiny fraction of overall electricity usage in the country, so this effect is minuscule.

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Energy intensity—calculated as total energy consumption divided by real gross domestic product (GDP)—is a common energy indicator and efficiency measure. In 2020,
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reached a low of 5.05 thousand British thermal units (Btu) per chained 2012 dollar, down 4% from the previous year and less than half as energy intensive as the United States was in 1983. Energy intensity varies greatly
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, and some states operate with much greater energy intensity than the U.S. average.

US energy intensity dropped according to this energy consumption/GDP definition, I don't see how that supports your point either regarding energy efficiency. Domestic factories closing, commercial buildings opening to support more middle man and financial industries, this would increase energy intensity. Absolutely nothing to do with energy efficiency.
 
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