American Economics Thread

chgough34

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All of which signal poor economic health.
Nope: a ton of people read “paycheck to paycheck” (including a YouTuber with 1M views) to include consumption and savings, in which case, it’s tautological.
It doesn't matter what the median net worth is; it's whether they are financially frail (paycheck to paycheck) and if they are struggling, which, as we're about to see, a whopping half of Americans are.
Yes. Yes, median net worth matters because net worth can only come from accumulated savings. That is an accounting identity.
Are you... really wanting to quote this? This says everything bad for the US.
“Most Americans are struggling” is highly inconsistent with self-reported “thriving” individuals comprising half of the population. Not thriving is also not equal to “struggling”.
Stopped reading when you said there's no data on point with it. Means you pulled it out of your ass.
Here are balance sheets for 3 of the largest U.S. utilities - NextEra Energy, Duke Energy, and Xcel Energy. Geographically disperse across numerous states (Colo., Minn., Fla., N.C., Wyo., Ohio, W. Va. Va., Ind., etc) -> you’ll notice that their accounts receivables and bad debt to not constantly heave up and down. If consumers had irregular cash flows - they would pay irregularly and the receivables of large utilities would similarly go up and down wildly. That simply is not the case. The only way receivables of large utilities are constant is if they have steady bill payments
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hat's not what it says. Firstly, why are nonprofit organizations included?
These are nothing but government investments. Secondly, it says that the household net worth has increased, which is expected to happen with inflation.
Nonprofit organizations are included because by definition, households have asset claims on institutions servicing households (NPISHs). Household net worth has increased faster than inflation. The claim that U.S. households, in aggregate, are financially distressed, is easily disproven by a quick glance at their combined balance sheets.
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o - you still can't read charts. See that spike comming up right after the end of 2021? Goddamn you are bad at this. How to you keep coming back for more??
They can’t pay. Except 97% of them are paid.
Yes. It is. The result is pathetic people struggling to buy things they don't need with money they don't have creating more and more debt.
It’s individuals spending money they have on things they want.
This is absolutely stupid. People build up wealth to put themselves on better footing tomorrow, because these people are actually intelligent enough to plan for tomorrow.
Your explanation below ended up showing that indeed: you were saving, not for the sake of saving, but for future consumption (higher education, housing, etc). Capital expenditures are dissaving and consumption (but. But it’s also mildly revealing - if people are highly confident on their children’s future employment prospects, the need to save necessarily declines (the children are able to afford their own homes on their own incomes, etc).
See? This is why Asians save. You immediately thought of contingencies because that's what America's economic sitution is made out of:
You ended up describing capital expenditure consumption/future consumption and you end up revealing the point. If someone could
be 100% guaranteed that their grandchildren could make $500K a year into perpetuity when they turned 18y/o, there would be 0 need to help them save for a house. If you need to help them save for a house, that necessarily involves some level of uncertainty on their future income. American households have experienced an unbroken record of continuous income growth for 2+ centuries (and are therefore, confident in their progeny’s future income) and so these intergenerational transfer issues simply don’t arise - they are just irrelevant and thus they are able to spend more today
 
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chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
What economic/financial disasters has Europe experienced since WW2?
You got it: World War 2 led to the collapse of all European empires, fundamentally reshaped Europe’s position in the world, completely razed all the European industrializers (quite literally) to the ground, and then led to generations of European soil-searching - from the ECSC, to the European Communities, and eventually, the European Union. All of this in less than a single lifetime. Those wartime memories of constant uncertainty and doubt continue to shape European politics and society with no comparable U.S. parallel. The Great Depression, otoh, resulted in a bunch of fiscal programs that got rolled out and curtailed after the depression was over: and it was over so quickly and forgotten about so quickly that Republican Dwight Eisenhower took control of the White House less than a decade after FDR died and the children of the Silent Generation, the Greatest Generation (and their children, the Boomers) presaged over many decades of continuous Republican dominance. I mention this mostly to show that the Great Depression ended up being forgotten about quickly as a freak financial shock.
The bottom 50% of many European nations enjoy higher standard of living than the bottom 50% of Americans.
Even assuming this is true - the bottom 50% of both Europeans and Americans comprise <20% of national income and thus simply won’t be saving much (the bottom 50% everywhere are quite similar - students, sick, disabled, elderly, etc - individuals who will be poor, often by no fault of their own, from circumstances no macroeconomic policy can fix). OTOH, the top 50% of Americans make substantially more than Europeans and have done so for more than a century at this point.
Universal healthcare also means Europeans are better insulated against unexpected large medical costs.
Not really. For lower income Americans, they are covered by Medicaid. For upper-income Americans, they are covered by ACA and ERISA plans that are community rated guaranteed issue with out of pocket maximums.
Yet household savings rate is still higher among Europeans?
Correct: historical memory lasts long. World War II fundamentally altered Europe; the Great Depression did not fundamentally alter the United States.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Nope: a ton of people read “paycheck to paycheck” (including a YouTuber with 1M views) to include consumption and savings, in which case, it’s tautological.
First of all no financially healthy household or individual can be described as paycheck to paycheck by any definition. Secondly, a Youtuber with 1M views???? What kind of bullshit is that? That's your answer to a Forbes article? LOL
Yes. Yes, median net worth matters because net worth can only come from accumulated savings. That is an accounting identity.
No not really. I bought a house for $100K. I lived in it for 20 years. Now it's worth $250K. My net worth went up 150% but I saved nothing.
“Most Americans are struggling” is highly inconsistent with self-reported “thriving” individuals comprising half of the population. Not thriving is also not equal to “struggling”.
LOLOL You are literally talking about the difference between a 50-50 and 51-49 split. 51% say they're thriving; 49% say struggling or worse. And it's odd that the study when straight from struggling to thriving. If they had a middle-ground such as "just getting along", there would be a whole lot less who report "thriving."
Here are balance sheets for 3 of the largest U.S. utilities - NextEra Energy, Duke Energy, and Xcel Energy. Geographically disperse across numerous states -> you’ll notice that their accounts receivables and bad debt to not constantly heave up and down. If consumers had irregular cash flows - they would pay irregularly and the receivables of large utilities would similarly go up and down wildly. That simply is not the case. The only way receivables of large utilities are constant is if they jave
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What the hell are you talking about? If people paid irregularly, they wouldn't do so in lockstep with each other; they would shift apart, compensate for each others' highs and lows and the data would not reflect that. But I didn't say anything about regular or irregular cash flow.
Nonprofit organizations are included because by definition, households have asset claims on institutions servicing households (NPISHs). Household net worth has increased faster than inflation.
That's some funny shit the US likes to do with their economic numbers, eh? Reminds me of the American version of imputed rent to puff up the economy.
The claim that U.S. households, in aggregate, are financially distressed, is easily disproven by a quick glance at their combined balance sheets.
But it's easily proven just by taking it from the horse's mouth. Right around half from the article you cited. I still wonder why you keep shooting yourself in the foot.
They can’t pay. Except 97% of them are paid.
Delinquency rate more than doubled from Q1 2021 to Q1 2024. I have to tell you that because you can't read charts. You brought this chart up, not me. This is in response to the claim that credit card debt is rising. It's not disputable.
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It’s individuals spending money they have on things they want.
Increasing debt does not mean money they have. Literacy is required for this debate.
Your explanation below ended up showing that indeed: you were saving, not for the sake of saving, but for future consumption (higher education, housing, etc). Capital expenditures are dissaving and consumption (but. But it’s also mildly revealing - if people are highly confident on their children’s future employment prospects, the need to save necessarily declines (the children are able to afford their own homes on their own incomes, etc).
No. I already said this. More is always better. Confident of employment aspects means nothing. Dish washers are employed. Always wanting better education, better employment, better pay, that's where the game is.
You ended up describing capital expenditure consumption/future consumption and you end up revealing the point. If someone could
be 100% guaranteed that their grandchildren could make $500K a year into perpetuity when they turned 18y/o, there would be 0 need to help them save for a house. If you need to help them save for a house, that necessarily involves some level of uncertainty on their future income. American households have experienced an unbroken record of continuous income growth for 2+ centuries (and are therefore, confident in their progeny’s future income) and so these intergenerational transfer issues simply don’t arise - they are just irrelevant and thus they are able to spend more today
This is not an intelligent argument because

1. it completely departs reality. Neither average people in China nor the US can have anything close to such a guarantee that their kids will grow up to be wealthy, to make $500K a year and be essentially given a luxurious lifestyle (although the elites of either country can almost guarantee it and those elites save a lot of money, disproving your theory). The need to go to unrealistic extremes in an example is a telltale sign of the futility of the argument.

2. Things are comparative. Even if you have supreme confidence in the economy in that your children will be able to live comfortably, they are still in competition with their peers in the same economy. It's about being better, never the absolute value. So, a forward-planning person would still save and put their money into their kids so they can be the top of their society, which is not only a matter of pride but also particularly useful during mate selection.

By the way, I can't believe this is an actual conversation. It is entirely spawned out of Western stupidity and lack of common sense. If you asked any Asian person, rich or poor why s/he saves, they'll look at you funny, then answer that more money is just better than less money because money gets things done. It's common sense. Whether the reason is a joyous or unfortunate occasion, you just need money. Only with Western brain rot can people turn this into a scientific article for why people save, with the prevalent economic view being a shockingly stupid consensus that culture has no impact on the desire to save and that people only save if they expect contingencies or difficulties! Or that lack of saving is somehow not financial incompetence but instead confidence. It's so stupid I look at these authors and American economists and think they can't even be human.
 
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Neither average people in China nor the US can have anything close to such a guarantee that their kids will grow up to be wealthy, to make $500K a year and be essentially given a luxurious lifestyle (although the elites of either country can almost guarantee it and those elites save a lot of money, disproving your theory). The need to go to unrealistic extremes in an example is a telltale sign of the futility of the argument.

Well, given trajectory of inflation in the US, it is very plausible by the time our grandkids are 18 (assuming we dont even have kids yet), dishwashers will be making 500k.
 

chgough34

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First of all no financially healthy household or individual can be described as paycheck to paycheck by any definition. Secondly, a Youtuber with 1M views???? What kind of bullshit is that? That's your answer to a Forbes article? LOL
If their description of paycheck to paycheck is a tautology: nothing can be inferred from it. The main purpose of showing the video was to show that the vernacular paycheck to paycheck definition (taxes+spending+savings) ends up being tautological in many cases. If survey respondents’ definition of “paycheck to paycheck” is tautological (as seems to be the case), then there’s just nothing to be inferred outside of the fact that the phrase has no meaning.
No not really. I bought a house for $100K. I lived in it for 20 years. Now it's worth $250K. My net worth went up 150% but I saved nothing.
The house is simultaneously an investment asset and a consumption item. Your savings were channelled into assets that appreciated in value much the same way, household savings invested in REIT shares appreciate
What the hell are you talking about? If people paid irregularly, they wouldn't do so in lockstep with each other; they would shift apart, compensate for each others' highs and lows and the data would not reflect that. But I didn't say anything about regular or irregular cash flow.
They can’t pay their bills for essential items doesn’t mean they will never pay, just that they won’t regularly pay. Economic cycles are correlated with each other so if many households have large cash flow increases, other households, should similarly have large cash flow increases (and the inverse is true). The lack of said variability on utility balance sheets suggests that there isn’t variability in cash flows and that households pay bills on time, consistently. Alternatively, the bad debt to revenue ratio is also quite low, which cuts even more against the hypothesis that households can’t pay.
That's some funny shit the US likes to do with their economic numbers, eh? Reminds me of the American version of imputed rent to puff up the economy.
Imputed rent is something done by all countries and so are the accounting for NPISHs - these are the Systems of National Accounts standards. Regardless - there are detailed accounts excluding nonprofits to only have households - household assets are $154 trillion on liabilities of $20 trillion with a net worth of $134 trillion (
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, lines 30 and 35)
But it's easily proven just by taking it from the horse's mouth. Right around half from the article you cited. I still wonder why you keep shooting yourself in the foot.
No. Survey responses are biased downwards - survey respondents generally underestimate their own household income (
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), stock prices (
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), among other readily verifiable data. If even, after said negativity bias, half can flip to the positive side of the dichotomy, it’s evidence for households not struggling, and readily verifiably not broke (since detailed balance sheet data exists for that).
Delinquency rate more than doubled from Q1 2021 to Q1 2024. I have to tell you that because you can't read charts. You brought this chart up, not me. This is in response to the claim that credit card debt is rising.
No. You said households can’t pay credit card bills, yet 97% of credit card bills are being paid.
This is not an intelligent argument because

1. it completely departs reality. Neither average people in China nor the US can have anything close to such a guarantee that their kids will grow up to be wealthy, to make $500K a year and be essentially given a luxurious lifestyle (although the elites of either country can almost guarantee it and those elites save a lot of money, disproving your theory).
No. Not really. Elites aim to retire and are in such high-income brackets that they are uninsurable by life and disability insurers (they don’t want to write super large face value policies) so they’ll save for retirement and for the risks of premature death and disability.
The need to go to unrealistic extremes in an example is a telltale sign of the futility of the argument.
No. It was illustrative - if you can absolutely guarantee positive outcomes, you wouldn’t save. So inherent in that is that savings are about hedging against future uncertainly.
2. Things are comparative. Even if you have supreme confidence in the economy in that your children will be able to live comfortably, they are still in competition with their peers in the same economy. It's about being better, never the absolute value. So, a forward-planning person would still save and put their money into their kids so they can be the top of their society, which is not only a matter of pride but also particularly useful during mate selection.
So once again - it’s about uncertainty of future outcomes.
By the way, I can't believe this is an actual conversation. It is entirely spawned out of Western stupidity and lack of common sense. If you asked any Asian person, rich or poor why s/he saves, they'll look at you funny, then answer that more money is just better than less money because money gets things done. It's common sense.
Nope - as economic theory correctly predicts, people in China who have grown up in an economic boom would have lower savings rates than those that grew up in tougher economic times. And low and behold - that is indeed the case, with younger Chinese individuals saving less than older Chinese individuals (
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.)
Only with Western brain rot can people turn this into a scientific article for why people save, with the prevalent economic view being a shockingly stupid consensus that culture has no impact on the desire to save and that people only save if they expect contingencies or difficulties!
No. Culture matters, but culture matters only insofar as it’s about shared historical memory passes through family structures; hence, savings rates of 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants merging into their home country savings rates.
Or that lack of saving is somehow not financial incompetence but instead confidence. It's so stupid I look at these authors and American economists and think they can't even be human.
People who are uncertain about the future will save more than people who are uncertain about the future because consumption today has value. Households are able to save money during recessions (which cuts against the incompetence hypothesis) and don’t save money during economic booms. This suggests bounded rationality by the side of households.
 

chgough34

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Upwards improvements in quality of life are rarely noticed and become the norm. 40 years ago - oranges and strawberries were not available year round. Now, they are available year round even in places like Boston. Expectations increase quickly and thus, what is expected to be “comfortable” increases as just as quickly.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
If their description of paycheck to paycheck is a tautology: nothing can be inferred from it.
Because you are either too stupid to infer, don't like the result, or both.
The main purpose of showing the video was to show that the vernacular paycheck to paycheck definition (taxes+spending+savings) ends up being tautological in many cases. If survey respondents’ definition of “paycheck to paycheck” is tautological (as seems to be the case), then there’s just nothing to be inferred outside of the fact that the phrase has no meaning.
No, your diareatic posts have no meaning. Everyone here knows it means financially strained. If someone asked any person if s/he wishes to be in a paycheck to paycheck situation or to not be dependent on the next paycheck, no one would pick the former. No amount of American politician/economist twisting will escape this fact.
The house is simultaneously an investment asset and a consumption item. Your savings were channelled into assets that appreciated in value much the same way, household savings invested in REIT shares appreciate
Nah. You live in a house. Other than more expensive houses costing more in tax and maintenance, they do not help you or your bills unless you sell your house and become homeless.
They can’t pay their bills for essential items doesn’t mean they will never pay, just that they won’t regularly pay.Economic cycles are correlated with each other so if many households have large cash flow increases, other households, should similarly have large cash flow increases (and the inverse is true). The lack of said variability on utility balance sheets suggests that there isn’t variability in cash flows and that households pay bills on time, consistently. Alternatively, the bad debt to revenue ratio is also quite low, which cuts even more against the hypothesis that households can’t pay.
It doesn't work that way with utilities. You don't pay, they get shut off. They need to get paid even if other things are strained. That's the difference between necessities and luxuries. People here accuse you of cherry-picking but this isn't even that; this is picking pebbles and pretending that they are cherries.
Imputed rent is something done by all countries and so are the accounting for NPISHs - these are the Systems of National Accounts standards. Regardless - there are detailed accounts excluding nonprofits to only have households - household assets are $154 trillion on liabilities of $20 trillion with a net worth of $134 trillion (
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, lines 30 and 35)
Yeah, that's why I specifically said American imputed rent, which imagines a person paying himself rent at market price. Economies like China that don't puff ourselves up use imputed rent as the percentage of the building consumed every year as it has a certain number of years before it should be torn down and remade. This is realistic imputed rent.
No. Survey responses are biased downwards - survey respondents generally underestimate their own household income
No, that's you asking someone a question, not liking their answer and pulling some reason out of your ass for why it should be closer to what you want it to be.
(
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), stock prices (
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), among other readily verifiable data. If even, after said negativity bias, half can flip to the positive side of the dichotomy, it’s evidence for households not struggling, and readily verifiably not broke (since detailed balance sheet data exists for that).
There is no evidence for someone not struggling after they already said they are. You are using bullshit American politician/economist twisting to try to put words into other people's mouths when they have clearly indicated the opposite. And the saddest thing is, you are the one who originally thought that the source is trustworthy enough to cite.
No. You said households can’t pay credit card bills, yet 97% of credit card bills are being paid.
No. Debt is increasing to an all time high and the number of unpaid bills is increasing as well. Your sentence means nothing. 97% is meaningless in a vacuum without looking at the trends, (which I know you can't do because you can't read charts) and "can't pay bills" means nothing; it's the number of people who can and can't pay compared to before.
No. Not really. Elites aim to retire and are in such high-income brackets that they are uninsurable by life and disability insurers (they don’t want to write super large face value policies) so they’ll save for retirement and for the risks of premature death and disability.
Elites have enough money for premature death (which is free) or disability. Their savings are easily in the tens of millions. They keep saving and save more than the poor people who actually need to save for unforeseen circumstances because they know that money is useful no matter now rich or poor you are.
No. It was illustrative - if you can absolutely guarantee positive outcomes, you wouldn’t save. So inherent in that is that savings are about hedging against future uncertainly.
It's illustrative of how stupid and wrong you are all the time because you had to create an impossible situation to demonstrate your point and that means that your point only resides in the impossible.
So once again - it’s about uncertainty of future outcomes.
So once again, it's not. Your theory is stupid and lacks all common sense. You ask anyone in any situation if they'd prefer to have savings or no savings and the answer will always be the former. The only reason you're still here bullshitting is because you've read so much retarded Western economic theory that you've lost scope of common sense. Why do people want money? Only an imbecile would over-analyze this to the point of what you're saying.
Nope - as economic theory correctly predicts, people in China who have grown up in an economic boom would have lower savings rates than those that grew up in tougher economic times. And low and behold - that is indeed the case, with younger Chinese individuals saving less than older Chinese individuals (
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.)
Nope, your economic theories are always stupid and wrong, which is why they've always predicted China's economic collapse amid the backdrop of it overtaking the US. Common sense always trumps Western economic theory. The more I think about this the stupider Western economists are.
No. Culture matters, but culture matters only insofar as it’s about shared historical memory passes through family structures; hence, savings rates of 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants merging into their home country savings rates.
There is no "no," that's what I said. Your "no" is actually against Western traditional econ dogma, which is stated in the paper that culture does not influence saving patterns. (They debunked it.) Anyone with common sense knows they are entertwined. Second and thid generation start to pick up the culture of the land they live in and that may be the American culture that tells people to crank up the debt spending money they don't have for things they don't need.
People who are uncertain about the future will save more than people who are uncertain about the future because consumption today has value.
Households are able to save money during recessions (which cuts against the incompetence hypothesis) and don’t save money during economic booms. This suggests bounded rationality by the side of households.
Nope, rich people save more money than poor people in the same economy. This shows a failure of your theory. Rich people know that more is better. Poor people basically feel that they're so far behind the game, just spend the money and give up trying to save.

This whole conversation stems from the fact that Western economic theory is just brain rot, a perfect example of reading until you lose common sense and become stupider than when you never read anything. We call that a book fool in China. The question is why people want to save money. The common sense answer is because money always opens more doors in the future regardless of your situation. The brain rot dumbass answer is what you wrote along with the multitudes papers out there. If you were asked by your child whether s/he should build up a healthy savings account or spend everything s/he earns, you would know to advise the former, not the latter. But because you're a book fool, you cannot apply it to an actual economics debate.
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
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Upwards improvements in quality of life are rarely noticed and become the norm. 40 years ago - oranges and strawberries were not available year round. Now, they are available year round even in places like Boston. Expectations increase quickly and thus, what is expected to be “comfortable” increases as just as quickly.
Increases are always measured in relation to rival nations. Your baseline is so low that what you are taking as improvement is something that typically comes with a nation just not collapsing and moving through time. The availability of fruit year round is true for every modern nation with the advent of greenhouses and the global economy. To purposefully compare yourself to 40 years ago is like a person proudly proclaiming that he's smarter at age 50 than he was at age 10. Anyone who bothers to say this is most likely mentally challenged.

This belongs in the above post but that one is too long so I'll put it here. (Don't miss the first Amazon link just because it's small.) This is all anyone needs to know about Western economic theory:
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