American Economics Thread
- Thread starter Bernard
- Start date
How much do you want you bet it's going to be revised lower by February and March just like the numbers for October and November?
Numbers get revised all the time. I don’t think there is any conspiracy here. Just the complexities of tracking all this information. I believe these are just the first release, which is then followed up with a more complete number. The problem is that the media fixates on these numbers without properly contextualizing them within how this information is tracked.
Yea, numbers get revised all the time. 10 months out of 11 being -20% (avg) vs their initial reporting by year end is just how things work. What are you going to tell me next, that it's all just a vibecession?
PMI being below 50 for 11 of 12 months (the only one above being 50.2) is also just a vibe right? That's the optimistic PMIs, other reporting has even that month below 50.
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If the US economy is doing so well why is maternal mortality, infant mortality and crime rising, COVID is currently in its 2nd highest wave yet, and life expectancy at record low?
If China had record breaking maternal mortality, infant mortality, high crime, etc. and COVID was running rampant, while the state claimed that the economy was doing better than ever according to its own statistics, what would the talking heads on CNN and Fox say?
For comparison, Syria, a country with 1/10th the GDP capita nominal, and at war.
Even Newsweek (far right tabloid) admits this is true:
And this is the claim: if you think the economy is bad despite sky high inflation, higher maternal mortality than Syria, rising levels of crime and the highest COVID infection rate in the world, you're delusional and crazy!
If China had record breaking maternal mortality, infant mortality, high crime, etc. and COVID was running rampant, while the state claimed that the economy was doing better than ever according to its own statistics, what would the talking heads on CNN and Fox say?
For comparison, Syria, a country with 1/10th the GDP capita nominal, and at war.
Even Newsweek (far right tabloid) admits this is true:
And this is the claim: if you think the economy is bad despite sky high inflation, higher maternal mortality than Syria, rising levels of crime and the highest COVID infection rate in the world, you're delusional and crazy!
America's manufacturing PMI has been suffering record low levels for more than a year.
Have a look at the 25 year chart. The manufacturing PMI has been below 50 (meaning contracting) for nearly a year which has never happened in the last 25 years and comes despite huge subsidies given by the Biden Administration.
This comes at a time when China is making extraordinary changes in the distribution of funds.
America will struggle to compete with China in the future even in high tech manufacturing because of high labour costs, low level of robot usage and relative increase in China's science output.
Why is nobody talking about America's manufacturing woes when it more than the services sector is directly related to the strength of the country?
Services sector without a strong manufacturing sector will show increasing weakness over time.
Have a look at the 25 year chart. The manufacturing PMI has been below 50 (meaning contracting) for nearly a year which has never happened in the last 25 years and comes despite huge subsidies given by the Biden Administration.
This comes at a time when China is making extraordinary changes in the distribution of funds.
America will struggle to compete with China in the future even in high tech manufacturing because of high labour costs, low level of robot usage and relative increase in China's science output.
Why is nobody talking about America's manufacturing woes when it more than the services sector is directly related to the strength of the country?
Services sector without a strong manufacturing sector will show increasing weakness over time.
Is the US stock market one huge scam?
It’s election year. If you believe that I have a bridge to sell to you. I know from personal experience that this is the most garbage job market and I’ve been working in software development for over a decade.
While the rest of us are working hard to keep up with inflation, check what the rich aholes’ kids are blowing their money on.
If you look at BLS's employment situation report for December 2023 (released Jan 5 2024):
1. No. of people working part-time for economic reasons (i.e. employers reduced their hours / can't find full-time jobs), +333,000 ytd (+8%)
2. Not in labor force who currently want a job, +514,000 ytd (+9%) but not included as unemployed because "[..] they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. "
3. Marginally attached to the labor force aka discouraged workers, +306,000 ytd (+19%)
4. Basically only government/government-adjacent sectors got jobs
| Sector | Monthly Job Increase 2023 | Monthly Job Increase 2022 | 2023-2022 Delta |
| Government | +56,000 | +23,000 | +33,000 |
| Healthcare | +55,000 | +46,000 | +9,000 |
| Social Assistance | +22,000 | +19,000 | +3,000 |
| Construction | +16,000 | +22,000 | -6,000 |
| Leisure and Hospitality | +39,000 | +88,000 | -49,000 |
| Professional and business services | +22,000 | +41,000 | -19,000 |
And of course, BLS has "changed little" for a lot of these figures. 30-50% difference in numbers YTD certainly is "little".