American Economics Thread
- Thread starter Bernard
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We don't know what values those tomatoes were beforehand. It's entirely possible those tomatoes were half that price previously, given it's Walmart and Amazon.
Also it's nice that you admit to data manipulation. Take'em away, mods!
You still don't get it. Stagflation doesn't need a high unemployment. Stagflation only requires steadily high unemployment that is above 5%. And unemployment is a lagging indicator. When stagflation began in 74, the unemployment was less than 5% but 1974 is the start of stagflation.
That is your opinion.
You are sick. So whatever.
Because there is no definition of hyperinflation.
The so called very intelligent Fed fucked up and allowed inflation to get out of control. Now the same smartass Fed thought that they could manage a soft landing because they see a few good months of better inflation number. Somebody reminds them that the almost 9 trillion excess printing press they dumped on the market. Also reminds them the same smartass Fed in the 70s that did the same exact thing and found out the hard way.
You did nothing. I don't know what you refute. You just post some random data that has nothing to do with the discussion and claim that you provide proof. That is as ridiculous as you can get from a debate. When I posted something, you just jump up and down and say random irrelevant stuffs or just play dumb or moving the goal post. It is wasted of time.
As for I, I said that the Fed fucked up by claiming the inflation is transitory. Everyone has a ounce of brain agreed that the Fed fucked up about calling inflation is transitory. So I don't know what I need to prove.
Did chicken or eggs prices increase? What is your point?
I said that my friends got their rent increase by 50% or some even double. Do you live in the real world? You think just because the statistics say that rent goes up 20% to 30% so that all people got their rent increase only by that amount.
All you want to say is that the American can't do no wrong. The Fed is great. The administration is great. Everything is great. Keep living your dream world. Sleepystudent.
It is American not some third world nation. Do you understand how much damage 5% to 9% inflation would do to middle and lower income households. Go outside from your basement and breath some air and go to the grocery stores, Costco, and Walmart to check on the prices on items of course only you are truly living in the US.
Another opinion.
Dotcom bubble and 2008 financial meltdown and 70s stagflation and recently inflation is transitory. Weak Fed fucked up.
Another opinion.
A few months data when we are talking about years. It is called pick and choose to post some selective data to support one's claim. Even that is useless, as inflation is still running 6.5% but just not for someone who doesn't live in the real world.
I never insisted that rental has doubled. Never. Another lie from you. I said some of my friends got their rent increase 50% and a few got double. It is ridiculous that you make this as for everyone should have their rent double or increase 50%. You don't live in a real world. You are only good at moving the goal post and twist my words.
Still living in the dream.
NYT said that rent increase 25% yearly. Resource data said it increase 60% over the years from the low point.
The article I posted has explicitly shown that rent increase in NYC from low point to high point for 60% over two years. I can post many cities to show rent went up 50% over the years. It doesn't mean all cities got rent increase of 50% or every tenants got rent increase of 50%.
Jersey City: Yearly increase 43% and two years increase more than 50%.
Miami: Yearly increase 13% and over two years increase around 50%
Scottsdale, AZ: Yearly 2% and over two years increase around 40%
Orlando, FL: Yearly 3% and over two years increase around 40%
Knoxville, TN: Yearly 17% and over two years increase around 50%
Austin, TX: Yearly 2% and over two years increase around 50%
Dream on.
Did I say that or you put words in my mouth. I said that my friends got rent increase of 50%. I didn't say anything about everyone got their rent increase by 50% or more. Some did and some didn't. Another attempt to twist my words.
I don't care. It is just you sound like him and act like him.
Unemployment is dropping bud, and no. There is no specific number attached to what would constitute stagflation. Some countries have historically higher unemployment numbers than United States. France has had over 5% unemployment for the last 30 years. High unemployment for them wouldn't be 5% or higher. It would be significantly above that.
Also, for the last time, high unemployment is one of the defining characteristics of stagflation. The economic literature is fairly definitive on it, and I've already provided many sources for you. Your only source, was a dictionary definition, a non-economic dictionary that offers no explanation or nuance. You're probably unaware of this, seeing as how resistant you've been to the idea that high unemployment is integral to the definition of inflation, but the entire reason why stagflation presented a policy dilemma was because it broke the Phillips Curve, which is a graphical illustration of the relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate.
A fairly simple explanation of the historical context of stagflation and the Phillips Curve can probably be found on Wikipedia, but most upper-level and even 101 level textbooks should have a sufficient explanation.
Uh, yes. Just like your characterization of the Fed and your speculation about the future are also opinions.
What am I sick with?
"Hyperinflation is a term to describe rapid, excessive, and out-of-control general price increases in an economy. While measures the pace of rising prices for goods and services, hyperinflation is rapidly rising inflation, typically measuring more than 50% per month. "
"Very rapid inflation; it is sometimes reckoned to set in when price increases exceed 50 percent per month."
Increasing the money supply does not necessarily increase inflation. Case in point. 2008.
Yes, I'm well aware that you lost track of your own argument as time went on.
Well, I already addressed the Chicken and Egg prices. It's due to an avian flu pandemic among chicken farmers in United States. That has a lot less to do with inflation, and a lot more to do with a supply chain disruption.
Other food prices have increased in price, but fairly modestly. They've been relatively stable. As has been demonstrated multiple times through both historical statistical data, and as requested, my own anecdotal evidence.
These are your exact words.
And I do live in a real world, which is why I can look at data, look at the actual prices in my area, and come to a conclusion that you're wrong. We've been over this multiple times, you've failed to demonstrate a genuine price increase of 50% or 100%. Your only proof is your own assertion that somebody told you so.
Lol no. I am generally critical of a lot of American policy, especially foreign policy. What I am doing here, is correcting obvious falsehoods. This is no better than when some American pundit tells me about how horrible and doomed China is. There is no need to lie about the American economy. It has its own serious issues, but what you're doing is just being plain hyperbolic.
I don't really understand the need for Ad Hominem here, but I suppose you don't have any actual facts or data to back up your assertions, so you've resorted to mundane name-calling.
Secondly, there is a bit of a conundrum here. You are insinuating that I am an out-of-touch basement dweller who is incapable of understanding what kind of damage 8 to 9 percent inflation can cause. Yet when I point out to you that neither rents nor general living expenses (like food) "doubled" in price, you are calling me a liar. You are aware that 50 to 100% is in fact much greater than 8 or 9%? This is precisely why I have repeatedly pointed out that in general prices have increase roughly 20%, not 50%. Because if our expenses did increase by that much, we would all be homeless.
Lol. It is curious that you choose to focus on the Federal Reserve, as opposed to other policy makers or factors. The Federal Reserve is rarely the main culprit in any of these disasters, and their response is generally adequate at worst. The Federal Reserve is always going to be partially responsible for any disaster because of it's inherent role in the economy. Things could always be more ideal, but mentioning the Fed in connection to the 2008 crisis in light of the circumstances surrounding that disaster is borderline asinine.
I really don't understand the point of calling out my opinions as opinions. I never asserted them as facts. Like okay? I suppose you're demonstrating some basic mastery of the English language.
I don't really understand how I cherry picked anything. All of the data I provided was relevant to the discussion at hand. By all means, point out which data is cherry picked?
Nor did I ever contest the YoY inflation rate. I merely pointed out that the MtM inflation rate indicates that the Fed's interest rate hikes were effective in curbing inflation. Otherwise MtM data would indicate that inflation is still on the rise. Similarly it would also make YoY inflation rate higher, instead of gradually lower.
I didn't move any of your goal posts. For several posts now, you've attempted to show how rents have increased by 50%, even providing articles in an attempt to prove your point. Now you are saying that you "never insisted" on it. I didn't twist your words, you're the one who is insisting that I am wrong about something, whatever that is.
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It's literally in your article.
This is the you linked in post #5,086, and these are the exact words from the first two paragraphs.
"When the pandemic set in, in cities across the country as workers and students fled to suburbs and rural areas. The median rent in Manhattan, for example, fell from $3,509 in March 2020 to $2,776 in November 2020, the in 10 years.
A year later, as renters flooded back in, the housing markets in New York City and other major cities had , with rents approaching, equaling or even surpassing prepandemic levels. Some New York renters who signed leases when rents were at their lowest saw 30 or 40 percent increases at the end of 2021."
Lol. I mean if you're going to deny the very material you yourself provide. I don't know. You're seemingly more focused on "winning" than on actually discussing anything. I mean the whole reason this conversation was derailed, was because you insisted on denying basic data, instead of discussing it in a civil way.
Because the rents actually fell first.
Why do you think they fell? Because there was deflation? No, because there was a pandemic.
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So you are confirming that this was a lie? Because none of these doubled, not even the worst case scenario you've mentioned.
No, you're just upset that somebody challenged you with facts and numbers. I mean you're accusing me of cherry picking when you're taking literally the worst possible scenario of something like this,
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And then accuse me of cherry picking when I pointed out that first of all, YoY rent did not double.
And second of all, that as your own data indicates. Rents fell because of the pandemic. You're ignoring the historical norm for the area, and the fact that rents have largely stabilized as a result of interest rates rising.
There's a word for somebody who's consistently dishonest, and that's liar.
Ok This is enough. @mods this guy is literally making shit up now.
KYli's exact words as reported in this screenshot is "my friends"
HighGround is pretending that KYli said it was... what? what does a "genuine price increase" mean? Located to his area? KYli said nothing of the sort. Over how long? Where?
As you can see as well, my newsweek source said NJ rent for 1-bedroom apartments increased by 50% from June 2021 to June 2022. HighGround claimed NY rent was 20% (from when to when?) and then declared that that was near the top end of inflation. Data does not support NY rent increases being indicative of the most increase.
I assume his NY time period was also from 2021 to 2022, as from this source:
This says NY rent increased 19.7% from Aug 2021 to Aug 2022. Over this similar period NJ increased 100%
He claims that rents went down through the pandemic. This is true (we have sources). However this is not relavent to either KYli's or HighGround's point as HighGround's own numbers are from 2021.
So HighGround is using a combination true yet irrelevant data to try and argue his side, (since A is true B must be true) and data with no constraints. (Everybody dies someday...)
Furthermore, his constant insistence that he is "right" without actually making a point is cluttering up this thread.
I would take a look at the other arguments but honestly there is no point to it.
KYli's exact words as reported in this screenshot is "my friends"
HighGround is pretending that KYli said it was... what? what does a "genuine price increase" mean? Located to his area? KYli said nothing of the sort. Over how long? Where?
As you can see as well, my newsweek source said NJ rent for 1-bedroom apartments increased by 50% from June 2021 to June 2022. HighGround claimed NY rent was 20% (from when to when?) and then declared that that was near the top end of inflation. Data does not support NY rent increases being indicative of the most increase.
I assume his NY time period was also from 2021 to 2022, as from this source:
This says NY rent increased 19.7% from Aug 2021 to Aug 2022. Over this similar period NJ increased 100%
He claims that rents went down through the pandemic. This is true (we have sources). However this is not relavent to either KYli's or HighGround's point as HighGround's own numbers are from 2021.
So HighGround is using a combination true yet irrelevant data to try and argue his side, (since A is true B must be true) and data with no constraints. (Everybody dies someday...)
Furthermore, his constant insistence that he is "right" without actually making a point is cluttering up this thread.
I would take a look at the other arguments but honestly there is no point to it.
KYli said:
I said that my friends got their rent increase by 50% or some even double. Do you live in the real world? You think just because the statistics say that rent goes up 20% to 30% so that all people got their rent increase only by that amount.
These are your exact words.
And I do live in a real world, which is why I can look at data, look at the actual prices in my area, and come to a conclusion that you're wrong. We've been over this multiple times, you've failed to demonstrate a genuine price increase of 50% or 100%. Your only proof is your own assertion that somebody told you so.
Do you read? I said inflation would make a comeback next year as the Fed is too soft on raising rate. Therefore, unemployment would not rise quickly or enough to dampen the labor costs or keep the housing costs down. However, I do believe unemployment would rise in the next few months just not enough. And no, I don't care if unemployment drops last month or this month. As I expect 6 months from now unemployment rate would be higher but again not enough.
Other countries mean nothing. We are talking about the US. For the most part, most experts base upon 70s stagflation as an example. I don't necessary agree with them but that is how they define stagflation.
In every year from 1974 to 1982, inflation and unemployment in the U.S. were both above 5%.
Wright said. For example, if unemployment were to go up to about 5% and consumer price index inflation were also at above 5% in 2023, that would be a kind of stagflation, though not to the degree we experienced in the 1970s, he said.
For the last time, unemployment is a lagging indicator. Supply shock/Monetary failure > Inflation > Demand shock > Unemployment rise > Supply cut back and the economy stuck in stagflation cycle. Due to the excess savings that accumulated during the pandemic handouts, most families still are able to absorb the increase in prices without cutting spending. However, more and more Americans have relied more on credit card spending. So the Demand Shock is coming soon. After the Demand Shock, we would have a rise in unemployment.
The Fed fucked up when claiming inflation is transitory. That is a fact. No amount of whitewashing from you can change that.
All other speculation is just my opinions and can be wrong.
Isn't it obvious.
If that were the case, then why Western experts and media call Argentina and Turkey hyperinflation. Both Argentina and Turkey didn't have price increase exceed 50% per month. Google can't save you from the real world.
In 2008, there is a massive asset destruction because of the housing crash. Banks were not lending and people were not borrowing. Consequently, the flood of extra cash giving to banks ended up parking and depositing right back to the Fed. In the end, the speed of money circulation declines which balances out the Fed monetary expansion.
In 2020, the Fed monetary expansion is much more massive and rapid. In order to encourage lending, the Fed eliminated reserve requirements. Banks no long require to hold excess reserves. At the same time, due to pandemic, people were forced to stay home which resulted in a massive increase and accumulate of savings that flood the banks. Coupled with Trump and Biden's massive stimulus and pandemic supply shocks which resulted in a rapid rise in the inflation.
Both the Biden administration and the Fed knew inflation would be a problem. But due to politics, they convinced themselves inflation is just transitory. What a joke.
70s stagflation was started by supply shock from oil.
Calling food prices increased as modestly. You don't live in a real world.
Using your own area to project all the US to prove that you are right.
I have provided multiple cities with rising rent with more than 40% and 50% on average. But somehow you think it isn't possible for many people to have their rent increase 50% or double. You don't live in the real world. And again, to prevent you from twisting my words, I never said that on average the US rent increases by 50% or double. So don't put that on my mouth. I only said that I knew people have their rent increase 50% or some even double.
Don't think so. How delusional you think I would believe such lies. When you tried to defend the Fed from inflation is transitory mistake, it said a lot about your character.
It isn't. I just don't believe you are who you claim you are.
Do you live in a real world? For example, when on average rent increase by 30% nationally over 2 years, but each state would not increase by the same amount. Some states would increase by 40% to 50% and some states would increase by 5% to 10%.
From that, for states with high increase, some cities would increase by 50% to 60% but some cities would increase only 20% to 40%. From that, some neighborhood would increase 60% and others 40%.
My links are just provided a proof that many cities have much higher increase in rent than others. Same thing with many people have higher rent increase than others. It doesn't mean nationally everyone would have their rent increase in the same amount.
You again and again twisted my words to claim that I said the national rent increase 50% or even double. That is not what I said. I just said that I knew people that have their rent increase 50% or even double and it isn't just a few. It just means that many people got hard hit by rent increase but base upon average statistics it doesn't show up.
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