American Economics Thread

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
Blows my mind people are actually debating if two quarters of negative GDP growth is considered a recession.
It's the global standard, in every textbook and economics course. Technical recession or not, it's still a recession.

I do understand they want to gaslight the American public and shore up consumer confidence. But America is too politically divided for it to ever be successful.
You know those western nation have this habit to lie to the public so they can save face.
It's a big part of their culture :p
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
-0.9% (quietly revised down to -2% later)
Change the definition of recession so you're not in a recession! 2023 new definition of recession (applies to US only): over 2 3 4 5 6 quarters of negative growth (*subject to change without notice).
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
"While two consecutive quarters of negative growth is often considered a recession, it's not an official definition. A nonprofit, non-partisan organization called the National Bureau of Economic Research determines when the U.S. economy is in a recession. An NBER committee made up of eight economists makes that determination and many factors go into that calculation.

The White House has pushed back against calling the current economy a recession. It is no doubt aware of the role the economy is going to play in the midterm elections.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen noted in a recent appearance on NBC's Meet the Press that while two consecutive quarters of negative growth is generally considered a recession, conditions in the economy are unique.

"When you're creating almost 400,000 jobs a month, that is not a recession," she said.

White House doesn't like the word recession​

The White House has taken pains to remind people that just two quarters of negative growth doesn't automatically mean the economy is in a recession."
 
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Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
Anything above zero is "a certain degree", but we still have no indication that even this lowest possible standard will be met.
Some low end productions are moving to Mexico, Vietnam, etc... Strategic sectors like chips will move to Arizona and Texas instead of rely entirely on Korea, Taiwan/China.
Walmart (the cheapest of the cheap) committed $350 billion to source supplies from within the U.S over the next 10 years.
Where is it happening? Investment from America into China - up. Chinese exports to America - up. American trade deficit with China - up.
Pandemic and revenge spending drove up US imports during the last 4 years (part of the reason why inflation is so high as people just keep on buying stuff). And you can't unwind 40 years of US - China interdependence over night.
Given the costs and complexities associated with re-shoring, it will be several years at a minimum before the United States begins to see any meaningful movement of manufacturing facilities and equipment to the US; this may speed up if Taiwan war happens sooner. None of this means China will not be important as a manufacturing powerhouse. But lets see what happens in the next 5, 10 years.
 

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
I can only imagine how much Trump is gonna win by a landslide in 2024. His delusions of grandeur is gonna make the average Murican have a collective orgasm on the spot. Their are gonna look upon him like a crackhead holding on to his last remaining syringe before OD'ing.
Trump is going to implement Schedule F Executive Order if he wins 2024. Look it up if you don't know what that is, and how crazy things could become. The Russians were smart to support Trump because Trump could single handily damage America from within.
 
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siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Change the definition of recession so you're not in a recession! 2023 new definition of recession (applies to US only): over 2 3 4 5 6 quarters of negative growth (*subject to change without notice).
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
"While two consecutive quarters of negative growth is often considered a recession, it's not an official definition. A nonprofit, non-partisan organization called the National Bureau of Economic Research determines when the U.S. economy is in a recession. An NBER committee made up of eight economists makes that determination and many factors go into that calculation.

The White House has pushed back against calling the current economy a recession. It is no doubt aware of the role the economy is going to play in the midterm elections.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen noted in a recent appearance on NBC's Meet the Press that while two consecutive quarters of negative growth is generally considered a recession, conditions in the economy are unique.

"When you're creating almost 400,000 jobs a month, that is not a recession," she said.

White House doesn't like the word recession​

The White House has taken pains to remind people that just two quarters of negative growth doesn't automatically mean the economy is in a recession."

I don’t like the word either.
 
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