Wonder what it's like to live in a world where China lives rent free in your head and keeps chipping at your self worth and self confidence. Xanax is useless to these people
American Economics Thread
- Thread starter Bernard
- Start date
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
So according to your theory, China is at the 4% ceiling and will continue to fall, right? This is not a flitting blip, perhaps omicron related? So if next year, we see China's growth accelerate back up far above America's, then what will you do? Hide behind a new screen name, find a new excuse for why that is, or give up coming here to pretend that America has a chance at keeping its lead?
Last edited:
quarter on quarter growth is only used in the short term, the cold hard facts are year on year GDP growth.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Yeah, you were cherry-picking data to suit what you wanted to see. In reality, the US only grew that much because it was recovering from a ditch which China was growing on top of a strong positive. Recovery tends to be stronger than normal growth, but even so, the US couldn't pull out by far and they still finished solidly behind China despite those numbers representing its recovery from a recession that China never had.
Fairandunbiased used the full year for a bigger picture and I used the full 2 years since the pandemic to get an even more complete picture; there's a reason that when Usain Bolt wins the 100m, people don't say, "But Tyson Gay ran his 85th-88th meters faster."
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Again, big picture matters more and a blip doesn't show long term momentum, especially not without analysis. Recovery momentum does not continue after the recovery is over; it manifests in the graph as a V in the trend line; it does not change the overall slope. Also, China actually kept its economy in good form with a healthy ability to fight COVID while the US let inflation soar and people die to preserve a growth that just isn't even real. China took a step back to make sure Omicron didn't knee-cap it; the US ran into it face first because it was so scared of China, it was willing to just suffer more COVID waves and deaths if it meant a little higher econ numbers, and now we see the US with over 2,000 deaths daily again. And that will continue to drag on America's economy. The picture's clear the China's growing healthily and the US is falling all over itself in panic and sacrificing everything including American lives to even put on a veneer that it's still growing competitively.
If you think just this omicron Q4 is telling of momentum, why don't you answer this post?
American Economics Thread
Tidalwave had some pro-China takes. This guy is a 100% hater. Wonder what it's like to live in a world where China lives rent free in your head and keeps chipping at your self worth and self confidence. Xanax is useless to these people
www.sinodefenceforum.com
economic momentum exists, but there's 2 caveats:
1. it isn't measured by Q4 GDP, it is measured by 85+ factors
2. it doesn't say what he thinks it says for the US economy according to the Fed itself.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
This is why you don't know how to analyze recovery and assume falsely that everything is normal. Before 7.9 was 18.3. This just proves what I said, that recovery growth is much faster than normalized growth... and then there's China being able to afford taking a pause for Omicron while the US is tripping all over itself in panic. We have 2 years of data and you're scared to look at anything other than this Q4 and you ask how you're cherry picking? LOL
China: 2.2% into 8.1%
USA:-3.4% into 5.7%
IT's clear that China's momentum is world-beating as always and that America's "momentum" is based off of a piss poor previous year (combined with hyperstimulus and inflation).
Except the dead people's families... and the restaurants that are closing because people don't eat out anymore...
Yeah, live people care.
Right now, the 2 year trends show China way up over 10% combined while the US is at 2%... with massive inflation and nearly a million deaths to China's 4.6K. So... unless something truly wild happens from here on out, I'd say it's not anyone's game anymore. If you're running the 100m and can barely see the other guy's ass, it's not up in the air even if he's not over the finish line yet.
Such as the coming quarters.
Which will tell the same story of the past few years!
Why will it be different this time?
Gordon Chang finally will be right for change?
Bwahahahahahahaha!
