American Economics Thread

L

LesAdieux

Junior Member
the US GDP grew 6.9% in Q4, supposed to be a positive surprise for the market. but the market was unimpressed. as usual, devil in the details. when you look at the details, you'll find inventory build up contributed 4.9% to the growth. if you take the unsold goods out, you have 2% left.

nonetheless, 2021 was a good year for the US. for 2022 the big show is inflation.
 
mossen

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
LesAdieux said:
GDP for 2021

China $17.74 trillion
USA $23.04 trillion
Click to expand...
Adding Hong Kong to the numbers and you get China being ~79% of total US nominal GDP. That's higher than the Soviet Union ever achieved IIRC. But China's population will likely peak this year while America will likely ramp up immigrant intake once the Covid storm passes, so it gets progressively harder from here.
 
G

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Well duh with the printing they reduced the value of existing debt.
That is why everyone was expecting the US to print like mad eventually and it just happened.

But it can take a long case for inflation to catch up after you print the money. In some cases it takes almost a decade.
When it does it will collapse savings and reduce US citizen's purchasing power massively.
At the same time don't expect the US government won't get its hands on the cookie jar. All those dollars printed will get used someway.
 
L

LesAdieux

Junior Member
mossen said:
Inflation has allowed the US to improve its debt-to-GDP ratio. It's not that big of a problem as many assume.

View attachment 81863

Debt service as a percentage of GDP (in real terms) is also much lower than before.
Click to expand...

only a fool will fancy he can inflate away his debt obligation. inflation can only be tamed when real interest rate is positive. and the graph you used certainly assume the 9 trillion sit on Fed's balance are not debt.
 
T

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
mossen said:
Adding Hong Kong to the numbers and you get China being ~79% of total US nominal GDP. That's higher than the Soviet Union ever achieved IIRC. But China's population will likely peak this year while America will likely ramp up immigrant intake once the Covid storm passes, so it gets progressively harder from here.
Click to expand...
China should take more immigrants. The US economy will slowdown dramatically, due to higher interest rates and fed tapering. A lot of funding will disappear from the US economy.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
mossen said:
Adding Hong Kong to the numbers and you get China being ~79% of total US nominal GDP. That's higher than the Soviet Union ever achieved IIRC. But China's population will likely peak this year while America will likely ramp up immigrant intake once the Covid storm passes, so it gets progressively harder from here.
Click to expand...
Soviet Union peaked relative to US GDP in the 1970's at around ~60% US GDP/PPP.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
(note the intersection is at 2018).

US-China%2BEconomies.png


For reference,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.
 
X

xypher

Senior Member
Registered Member
mossen said:
Adding Hong Kong to the numbers and you get China being ~79% of total US nominal GDP. That's higher than the Soviet Union ever achieved IIRC. But China's population will likely peak this year while America will likely ramp up immigrant intake once the Covid storm passes, so it gets progressively harder from here.
Click to expand...
I don't think USSR ever went over 55%. The closest country was Japan with around 71% of the US GDP in 1995 which is pretty impressive considering that they had like 2.5x smaller population.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top