2017 - 2025: a US Air Naval supremacy
We offered some remarks on the positioning of the anti-ship bombers (not dwell on the critical maritime patrol aircraft). Note that the next few years will be positive for the US naval diplomacy with regard to the activity of different aircraft carriers and carriers worldwide.
Note that by "aircraft carrier" we mean a ship carrying a flat beam bridge with continuous catobar standards (Catapult Assisted Take-Off Goal Arrested Recovery): that is to say, the fixed-wing aircraft operating from the ship have the same performance as if they had operated from land.
We therefore oppose the carrier (catobar) the aircraft carrier which it takes on the appearance of the first does not allow its fixed-wing aircraft the same performance and ashore. Gather here flat bridges stobar (Short Take-Off Goal Arrested Recovery) and STOVL (Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing), only those that have shutdown strands and those with only a continuous flat deck. These are aircraft carriers.
The aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle will have a second ATM (Off Major Technique) from a fortiori to February 2017. Over a period of 18 months, the real reform in mid-life, costing from 1.2 to 1,300,000,000 euros, will deprive the Navy of its single aircraft carrier until September 2018, and a bit more if we consider the operational reconditioning operations of ship and air wing .
The absence of the French ship will be felt in the eastern basin of the Mediterranean and in the Persian Gulf where its presence allowed some time to increase the weight of the US naval diplomacy or to ensure the weld between the passage two US carrier battle groups for the first time in 2015. Regarding the French naval diplomacy, the air group certainly likely to be based on land (from Jordan? UAE?) while the C-135 FR inexorably running out (the first two A330 MRTT Phoenix will arrive in 2018 and 2019).
The Charles de Gaulle will not be the only one to take a cruise in the fourth quarter (in September) because the only aircraft carrier of Voïenno-Morskoi Flot should also visit the Mediterranean for three months (from October). By coincidence, the Admiral Kuznetsov also enter an overhaul at the end of 2016. This other naval Arles - after PA2 - is discussed since at least 2010. The technical stoppage could last up to five years if we are to believe the figure mentioned since.
Another naval Arles - Russian PA2 - could be put on hold only around the year 2025. Meanwhile, Russia would long private flat bridges, it would be difficult for the overhaul announced the Kuznetsov lasts less than two years. Regardless of the operational reconditioning phase that will follow. Russia then would know the naval constantly renew and, perhaps, his desire to build six aircraft carriers by 2050. Note, however, that the Russian Navy would find several cruisers modernized in the next few years to support its naval diplomacy. This is sure to be an interesting case study, influencing future plans of the country's naval programming.
It would also talk that Brazil performs an overhaul of "second life" of the former aircraft carrier Foch, the NAe São Paulo. The ship would then be unavailable from 2017 until 2019 where the operation is confirmed. And that's not to mention a possible order of Sea Gripen would require to adapt the Brazilian flat deck (springboard?). Ideally, these changes would intervene during the overhaul, lacking a good schedule, they could also intervene after, preventing even the ship to be operational. That would leave the field open for the Fourth US Fleet in the South Atlantic.
China's side, communication announcing a possible unavailability for maintenance when it is clear that the aircraft carrier will be in dry dock. Meanwhile, a redesign would be unwelcome to a vessel that benefited no five years of such an operation. Still, the more mystery surrounds the construction schedule of the second aircraft carrier to accompany the Liaoning. Around the years 2023-2025, China is expected to Naval Air permanence. Two other units (a sistership vessel under construction, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier) would be provided.
India disarm well INS Viraat, the former HMS Hermes. The Indian naval calendar also sees the new aircraft carrier, the INS Vikramaditya, be unavailable for approximately eight months. And the Indian Navy will rely on this ship until 2023. The first aircraft carrier of national design (with Italian assistance) must be declared fit for service this year, allowing India to know the naval aviation permanently.
The UK should see the first aeronautical trials begun in 2017 on the Queen Elizabeth. The ship should be declared fit for service in 2020. The HMS Prince of Wales would, in turn, declared operational in 2023.
We try to sketch that by 2019-2020, the world's naval air force report greatly benefit the United States of America. The French and Russian aircraft carrier will not yet operational. The Chinese ship should be, like its Indian equivalent over the same period. The US Naval Air concentration should be easier to achieve because the Navy is implementing ten aircraft carrier and an eleventh unit is being finished (despite the difficulties concerning the CVN 78, the situation is rather comfortable).
In the next period, 2020-2025, the balance of power will be more favorable in the US since the Russian and Chinese navies will not benefit from joining the fleet of new units. Instead, the Russian aircraft carrier could still be being revised. For cons, the Indian Navy is expected to reach the naval permanently in 2023, as the United Kingdom and France have regained its aircraft carrier at sea in 2018.
As part of the balance of forces in the Indian and Pacific oceans, the balance should be in favor of US allies, both by flat bridges the anti-ship bombers. However, the US carrier will weight heavily qualified when China and Russia will be at least two units each by 2025. And especially when the United States, India, Russia and China will reach the naval air constantly, which could encourage them to empower the use of their aircraft carrier battle group.
