No doubt Jeff, but this picture is getting a bit old
Well, it is a year old, but outfitting work continues inside out of our view. I do not need to remind you that the Liaoning also set for many years with little apparent progress, and yet throughout that time work was ongoing to produce what we see today. So, I expect it will be similar with the Vikrant, except in this case because the Indians have a more open press, we know the reasons for any delays. Those gear boxes have given them fits.
Indian Navy announced a 3 year delay in the fitting out which takes us to 2015/6 and it won’t be commissioned until 2017 more like 2018, and that’s if, and that’s a big “IF” it all goes according to plan
Which helps make my point. She will be handed over in 2017-2018, which means she will launch and begin trials close to a year before...so, 2016-2017.
If India does manage to pull through and get 2 aircraft carriers operational by 2020 (Vikram and Vikrant) that means 1 operational at all times, which means is it going to be deployed East or West? It can’t be on 2 places at one time so really until the second Vikrant comes along (post-2025) India will not have cover for both its oceans, in 10 years’ time you can bet Chinas carrier fleet will dwarf anything India has to offer
Which is fine. The Indians only have one, antiquated carrier now. By 2018, they will have two. I personally expect the third to launch in the 2021-2022 time frame and be in service by 2023.
I seriously doubt the PLAN will come anywhere close to"dwarfing" those numbers by 2023. They apparently have not started their 1st indigenous carrier yet...so we are probably looking at 2018, soonest for it to be in service, and depending on when they start the second, you are looking at time frames very similar to India to get to three carriers by 2023.
So, in actuality, it is likely that the PLAN and the Indian Navy will have three modern carriers in almost exactly the same time frames...and they will consist of the same types. For each, one refit and modernized older Russian carrier (which I believe the Liaoning is the better of the two, though the Vikramaditya is far better than what India currently has in the Viraat), and each will have two of their own, brand new indegenous carriers...in all likelyhood, one of which will be STOBAR and one CATOBAR each.
Now I expect the PLAN to continue on beyond three carriers (and India probably will not) and maybe the PRC will have five by 2030.