MIGleader said:
i am positively amazed at your optimizem that a small broup of f-18s could simply walk into chinese air space. chinese radar on the coast will dectect an f-18 hundred of kilometers away. the s-300s, 100km or 200km, will be ablw to shoot down an f-18. low visibility doesnt cut it against chinas modern radars. china has around 750 s-300s/hq-15s.
a small force of f-18s is not going to survive j-11 attack. there are hundreds more j-8s than hornets aswell. each of chinas awacs can do a 7 hour patrol, so if they can refueled fast enough, they can cover 24/7, with a 7 hour active shift and 14 hour rest for the crews.
we are not playing a war game. why are u using first and second person?
M.L. I am as well positively amazed at your ability to overstate the capabilities (not that any of us REALLY know, US or PRC, as we are not
professionals. And again, not a knock on you, me, sumdood, tp. None of us do this for a living. The real pros - on both sides - probably come in here when they've had a hard day and are in need of some humor. But since we are having good natured debate, prognostication, and embellishment - all in good fun and yet still being sincere - we can "discuss" this stuff we know little about over the Internet...
"I" (I'm using I as this is what "I" think and what "I" would do if wargaming this little spiel and in my
non-professional opinion -v- your
non-professional, I would not want to speak for the US Navy in these regards - and I can bet they wouldn't want me as their spokesperson (probably couldn't pass the physical with my current ailments
). And no offense intended whatsoever when I say "your" J10s or J11s or whatever, as in your
non-professional opinion they are capable of this or that. So understand - this is where you and I can have some discussion, and with an open mind, maybe enlighten each other on this a little from our
non-professional points of view... The "I" and "YOU" thing is nothing derogatory at all so please understand there is no negativity about it....
So do I really think a flight of F18s could walk into PRC airspace? Yes and No, and here is why (again, based on my
non-professional research over the past 10-15 years). Ground based radar still cannot see THROUGH the earth. OTH radars can but that is a different animal and it still cannot guide a round for the 300, right? This will limit the warning to the radar site. As I am either coming in on a low profile to limit your warning time. Your AWACS can see the 18s at 100-125 miles out give or take when I come in low on the deck. Are your AWACS inshore or offshore? Playing out far with fighter support? And a lot of factors play with that range - who says I am coming right at you? I may be coming in from the side at an angle 150 miles up the coast. Down and dirty up some valleys that your AWACS can't see through? China has a LOT of mountains, truly a beautiful place from the picturs I've seen - other than the polution. You do not have enough AWACS (no country does, not even the US) to cover everywhere I might come in. And if you do throw them all up to cover the broadest stretch of coast, I can wait until you get low on gas. You see, there are "things" I can do that will trigger a reaction - maybe to my liking - that would give me an advantage.
But I do think I am somewhat grounded to the fact that IF "I" think that the PRCs 750
ROUNDS of various flavors of S-300 are not individually ringing the coast but are in fact in storage in some cases (they can't be everywhere) and mostly are with their
LAUNCHERS at numerous places across the mainland, guarding many valuable systems and facilites (or targets depending on one's point of view). But No country has enough long range - high quality SAMs to be everywhere, all the time. So yes, under some circumstances, I feel "I" can take F-18s, into PRC airspace, under certain conditions, and start popping off some of your S-300 sites.
A small force of F18s could kick the crap out of a comparably sized force of J11s when the conditions warrant and vice versa. If the 18s have AWACS Support and the J-11s don't, it could be a turkey shoot. Now if you are able to have 24 hour AWACS support, "I" (again, the non-professional) will kick you in the nuts :nutkick: (I love that smiley :rofl: ) somewhere else first. "I" would try to not put "my" 18s against your Flankers (or anyone elses :rofl: for that matter) where I would offer you an advantage. I want you to play my game not get forced into playing your game. If I want to run the ball hard and fast, the last thing I want to do is for you to dictate a half-court game. You can't look at Aircraft 1 has 42km missiles and Aircraft 2 has 43km missiles so AC2 automatically wins. It is hundreds of variables, some more important than others that really impact who wins and who loses. And then you still need to factor luck or the lack of it...
tphuang said:
S-300 has a range of 90, S-300PMU has a range of 120, PMU1 has a range of 150 and PMU2 has a range of 200. HOw can it not see Hornets? What are you talking about. If you have a detection range of 400 KM vs fighter size targets (5m^2 targets), then a 1 m^2 obviously would be detected by the time it gets into the range of the missile. Go check sinodefense, China has plenty of S-300 divisions of different quality. Add that to HQ-9, which is supposed to be at the PMU1 level (except with better ECM and possibly guidance), you get an idea of the capability of the SAMs. That's not even including the SAMs that do nothing but protect S-300 and HQ-9 and the hundreds of manpads and mobile AAW.
How do you have a 400KM detection range on fighter sized targets?? 400K at 30K feet perhaps in an AWACS against fighters at 400K feet. And even iof the Hornets were painted with RRM (Radar Reflecting Material :rofl: ) you are not going to see, much less guide, thru the curvature of the earth. So now, the range you can guide at, after seeing me, is comparable to where I can target you with HARM or perhaps decoy then Harm or Jam and Harm. Lots of options, lots of possibilites, no one soultion truly clear cut over another.
At the present time, you are looking at 4 KJ-2000 (which is enough to fly around the clock). Actually, even 3 should be enough. Then you are also probably looking at 4 Y-8J directing attacks against sea objects and probably 3 Y-8 balance beam AWACS (you can bet this number with grow rapdly) and 24 su-30mk2 that can be used as mini-awacs. Let's not forget you also have ground based radar and early warning detector that can be used to track enemy fighters. China doesn't need these things to fly around the coastline, any possible battle is going to be fought near Taiwan.
I have just "Dropped Your Drawers", you've been "drooped". You massed all your gear around Taiwan and I came in out of your view and kicked the door in somewhere else. Now what do you do? Remember, I am not playing to your strengths but making you react to mine?
As for the Y8 J - if I'm the US Navy, and we are in battle, do you think a Y8J is going to get withtin dectecion range of my ships? Negative, it will be fish food long before it got close enough. Now on a peactime footing, sure, it could venture 800Km+ offshore.
Mini-Awacs? Come on, don't kid yourself. Nothing AWACS about that but a plane and a pilot manualy scanning the skies with little or no assistance. Not AWACS for any fighter plane...
J-8F is just one of the BVR platforms, J-10 and Flankers can also launch BVRs. At the present time, you are looking at probably 150-200 J-8II that were either built as F or converted to F. You are also looking at around 70-100 J-10s (increasing at 48 to 72 a year) and probably 250 flankers.
How many are operational AND in theater? How many are tasked to other missions?You think there are 200 J8s in the "F" class? 100 J-10s? (that are not even in the Taiwan Theater, nor are their maintainece facilities and personel). Flankers - sweeeeet plane. How many roles are they to fill, and how far out are they scattered about?
On a serious note, I am enjoying this discussion with you folks - so thank you (I would insert smiley but I'm over my limit - damn vB : eek : )
