Agreed ... but at least - and you know my obsession for numbers - we have one J-11B in 109th serials.
As for those 35th AR J-8Bs, they are long gone AFAIK. At least there was never a 35th Brigade.
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Air Division, Regiments, ... Bases, Brigades, etc
- Thread starter Raven
- Start date
Agreed ... but at least - and you know my obsession for numbers - we have one J-11B in 109th serials.
As for those 35th AR J-8Bs, they are long gone AFAIK. At least there was never a 35th Brigade.
As discussed from the Flanker thread:
Taxiing to Gate 5-6.
Looks very much like Huizhou-Huiyang, home of the 26th Air Brigade.
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What are the latest PLA fighter numbers? Are they still producing at a very slow production rate? US produces like 150+ planes per year. And I read here before that PLA produces around 80. At this rate they will need several decades to catch up to US total number of modern fighters.
Provide a breakdown of your estimates please.
The question you are asking is fair but if you're going to throw out numbers, please give us some sources... or at least how you're counting.
For what it's worth, I think if we combine the number of J-10Cs, Flankers (J-16s mostly but also J-15s) and J-20s produced on average per year in the last 3-4 years, I think an average of 70 aircraft annually delivered is about right.
I'm not sure if you believe 70 modern fighter aircraft delivered is a "very slow production rate" let alone procurement rate. If you look at how many new fighters are procured by most nations per year, 70 per year is well on the high end that only a few nations in the world can enjoy.
The total annual delivered fighter count is one that is likely to increase going forwards as J-20 production rate increases and J-10C and Flanker production are likely to continue forwards as well.
As for the US, how are you counting 150 planes produced per year? I.e.: are you including aircraft produced for the US and their export customers, or the US alone?
We can easily find the US breakdown of it's procurement numbers in very high detail for all weapons program (except presumably classified programs), but are there easy to go to comprehensive sources on yearly deliveries, as opposed to just procurement?
As far as i've tried to follow the US procurement rates, this year they should get delivered the following:
90-ish F-35 of all three kind. Exact figure is a bit hard to tell, as delivery timetables get shifted around, and not just due to Covid.
15 or so F-18E/F
2 or so F-15EX
So roughly 110 fighter jets.
Chinese delivery rates require even more guesswork than that. But I'll try.
Given the rate at which J-16s are getting reported in new brigades and given the alleged 150 J16 in service so far, it would appear that at the very least 24 are delivered per year. Possibly up to 30.
For J-10 we did not get a proper update for a long time. We do know that some years ago the total S/C variant production went little over 40 airframes per year. Whether that figure went down, for example due to more J-20 produced at the same factory, is unknown. I do think it's unlikely the figure went up. As we'd have more units reported of using J10C by then.
J-15 is obviously getting made. Hard to gauge the number, but purely from the requirements perspective, I'd say 6 to 12 per year is a decent stab at the annual figure.
H-6 is continuing its production. Assuming the same rate is still going on as we've witnessed in the previous decade, some 10 airframes sounds like a reasonable guess.
J-20 is likely still ramping up so it's hard to deduce the current output based on previously known units using it. I'll say 15 to 20 airframes, but that's really a guess not based on much.
Overall anywhere between 85 and 102 fighters and bombers.
The US near future will see end of Superhornet production. Last plan said deliveries to USN would end in 2023.
F-15EX will ramp up, likely at least 12 a year, but possibly more.
F-35 will maybe not ramp um much at all anymore, as I've been reading the current figures represent the apex of money USAF has around to spend each year on F-35.
And of course, in a few years we might see a very slow ramp up of B-21 deliveries.
Predicting Chinese deliveries in the near future is next to impossible, though. I doubt we'll see a drop in deliveries. But whether there will be an added ramp up or not - is unknown.
90-ish F-35 of all three kind. Exact figure is a bit hard to tell, as delivery timetables get shifted around, and not just due to Covid.
15 or so F-18E/F
2 or so F-15EX
So roughly 110 fighter jets.
Chinese delivery rates require even more guesswork than that. But I'll try.
Given the rate at which J-16s are getting reported in new brigades and given the alleged 150 J16 in service so far, it would appear that at the very least 24 are delivered per year. Possibly up to 30.
For J-10 we did not get a proper update for a long time. We do know that some years ago the total S/C variant production went little over 40 airframes per year. Whether that figure went down, for example due to more J-20 produced at the same factory, is unknown. I do think it's unlikely the figure went up. As we'd have more units reported of using J10C by then.
J-15 is obviously getting made. Hard to gauge the number, but purely from the requirements perspective, I'd say 6 to 12 per year is a decent stab at the annual figure.
H-6 is continuing its production. Assuming the same rate is still going on as we've witnessed in the previous decade, some 10 airframes sounds like a reasonable guess.
J-20 is likely still ramping up so it's hard to deduce the current output based on previously known units using it. I'll say 15 to 20 airframes, but that's really a guess not based on much.
Overall anywhere between 85 and 102 fighters and bombers.
The US near future will see end of Superhornet production. Last plan said deliveries to USN would end in 2023.
F-15EX will ramp up, likely at least 12 a year, but possibly more.
F-35 will maybe not ramp um much at all anymore, as I've been reading the current figures represent the apex of money USAF has around to spend each year on F-35.
And of course, in a few years we might see a very slow ramp up of B-21 deliveries.
Predicting Chinese deliveries in the near future is next to impossible, though. I doubt we'll see a drop in deliveries. But whether there will be an added ramp up or not - is unknown.
To be honest I am not that concerned about the modern fighter aircraft deliveries to China.
I am more concerned about the amount of modern jet trainer aircraft like the JL-10.
Even at current rates in a couple of years all the older generation aircraft will be replaced with new types.
It is also a matter of time until the JH-7 is replaced with the J-16.
China does not need to have the same amount of aircraft as the US.
They do not have the super carrier air wings.
They do not deliver as many aircraft to 3rd parties.
They do not have as large a foreign presence.
So China can survive with a smaller air force.
I think as technology improves and the next generation aircraft come into service the production rates will eventually increase.
I would not be surprised to see J-20 production double. I would also double J-16 production.
But even at current rates over the next decade China will have enough of these aircraft on aggregate as long as they keep up at it.
To be honest I do not know why they insist with the J-11D. I would have replaced it with the J-20 already.
It might make sense to make an interim upgrade to J-11 airframes with J-16 based technologies until J-20 production ramps up.
They might also want to upgrade earlier J-10 airframes avionics.
The main problem is not the fighters, but the bombers, but that has been patched up with the H-6K and soon the H-20.
Even so the dedicated bombers are more for power projection than defending the Chinese homeland. So not that urgent.
I am more concerned about the amount of modern jet trainer aircraft like the JL-10.
Even at current rates in a couple of years all the older generation aircraft will be replaced with new types.
It is also a matter of time until the JH-7 is replaced with the J-16.
China does not need to have the same amount of aircraft as the US.
They do not have the super carrier air wings.
They do not deliver as many aircraft to 3rd parties.
They do not have as large a foreign presence.
So China can survive with a smaller air force.
I think as technology improves and the next generation aircraft come into service the production rates will eventually increase.
I would not be surprised to see J-20 production double. I would also double J-16 production.
But even at current rates over the next decade China will have enough of these aircraft on aggregate as long as they keep up at it.
To be honest I do not know why they insist with the J-11D. I would have replaced it with the J-20 already.
It might make sense to make an interim upgrade to J-11 airframes with J-16 based technologies until J-20 production ramps up.
They might also want to upgrade earlier J-10 airframes avionics.
The main problem is not the fighters, but the bombers, but that has been patched up with the H-6K and soon the H-20.
Even so the dedicated bombers are more for power projection than defending the Chinese homeland. So not that urgent.