difficult to say, just out of mind the 4th AB is under conversion from Su-27SK/J-11 to J-20
Air Division, Regiments, ... Bases, Brigades, etc
- Thread starter Raven
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difficult to say, just out of mind the 4th AB is under conversion from Su-27SK/J-11 to J-20
I updated my map of PLAAF and PLANAF fighter and bomber units based on data on scramble.nl. The map represents modernisation trend so units which are reported to transition between types or upgrading infrastructure have the planned type indicated. It is therefore not accurate and may contain errors. Corrections welcome.
I listed units by combat type taking into consideration "lead type" of fighter or type most likely to be used in the future. For example the unit flying Su-35 has received J-16 according to scramble so I listed it as J-16 units even though it likely operates a mix of the two. This is why in particular some J-20 and J-16 units may be under-strength and/or in transition with older fighters finishing service e.g. J-11B, Su-30 etc.
The previous map from mid-2021:
This one is for 2024 [2500x1500px] - zoom in:
The colors indicate aircraft type:
W,S,E,C,N are theaters, numbers indicate brigade or regiment. Additional N indicates the few remaining PLANAF units. In tables below I omitted J-15 and H-6 and training units including those flying combat types.
West Theater:
South Theater:
East Theater:
North Theater:
Central Theater:
combined PLAAF & PLANAF:
Trend: -4 (+15 / -19)
If we account for units in transition (see above) then the table more or less matches the commonly reported J-16 and recent J-20 figures. J-10C remains static or has minimal growth indicating manpower went to J-20 production lines.
With 59 units total proportions are: 22% - J-16, 22% - J-10, 18.5% - J-20, 11.8% - J-11B, 11.8% - J-7, 13.5% - other/obsolete
As a closing note I'll make a prediction that if J-35 enters production soon it will first replace J-11A/B units. J-10 despite slowly getting old (A) is significantly cheaper to operate and it seems to be used for support and secondary defense duties e.g. missile defense - hence the number of units in Central Theater. I am not sure as to what will happen to JH-7 units. Probably more shuffling around of other types as J-20 and J-35 are produced.
I listed units by combat type taking into consideration "lead type" of fighter or type most likely to be used in the future. For example the unit flying Su-35 has received J-16 according to scramble so I listed it as J-16 units even though it likely operates a mix of the two. This is why in particular some J-20 and J-16 units may be under-strength and/or in transition with older fighters finishing service e.g. J-11B, Su-30 etc.
The previous map from mid-2021:
Air Division, Regiments, ... Bases, Brigades, etc
Latest estimate of fighter regiments and orbat of the PLAAF number around 2200 jet fighter with 50% modern fighter like J10, J11, Su27, Su 30MKK etc via Icloo translated Only 400 J7 left. they are making progress on fleet modernization It was not too long ago that PLAAF look like antiquated Air...
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This one is for 2024 [2500x1500px] - zoom in:
The colors indicate aircraft type:
- orange - J-20
- yellow - J-16
- light green - J-11
- red - J-10
- brown - J-7, J-8
- blue - JH-7
- grey - H-6
W,S,E,C,N are theaters, numbers indicate brigade or regiment. Additional N indicates the few remaining PLANAF units. In tables below I omitted J-15 and H-6 and training units including those flying combat types.
West Theater:
| yr. | J-20 | J-16 | Su-30 | J-11B | J-11A | Su-35 | J-10 | J-7, J-8 | JH-7/A |
| 2021 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 2 | - | - | 1 | 1 |
| 2024 | 3 | 1 | - | 2 | 1 | - | - | - | 1 |
South Theater:
| yr. | J-20 | J-16 | Su-30 | J-11B | J-11A | Su-35 | J-10 | J-7, J-8 | JH-7/A |
| 2021 | - | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| 2024 | 3 | 2 | - | 2 | 1 | - | 3 | 1 | 1 |
East Theater:
| yr. | J-20 | J-16 | Su-30 | J-11B | J-11A | Su-35 | J-10 | J-7, J-8 | JH-7/A |
| 2021 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 2024 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | 2 | - | 2 |
North Theater:
| yr. | J-20 | J-16 | Su-30 | J-11B | J-11A | Su-35 | J-10 | J-7, J-8 | JH-7/A |
| 2021 | 1 | 2 | - | 1 | 1 | - | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 2024 | 1 | 3 | - | 1 | - | - | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Central Theater:
| yr. | J-20 | J-16 | Su-30 | J-11B | J-11A | Su-35 | J-10 | J-7, J-8 | JH-7/A |
| 2021 | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | - | 5 | 4 | - |
| 2024 | 2 | - | - | 1 | - | - | 5 | 2 | - |
combined PLAAF & PLANAF:
| yr. | J-20 | J-16 | Su-30 | J-11B | J-11A | Su-35 | J-10 | J-7, J-8 | JH-7/A |
| 2021 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 11 |
| 2024 | 11 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - | 13 | 4 | 7 |
Trend: -4 (+15 / -19)
- J-20 +9
- J-16 +6
- Su-30 -1
- J-11B -1
- J-11A -3
- Su-35 -1
- J-10 -2
- J-7/8 -7
- JH-7 -4
If we account for units in transition (see above) then the table more or less matches the commonly reported J-16 and recent J-20 figures. J-10C remains static or has minimal growth indicating manpower went to J-20 production lines.
With 59 units total proportions are: 22% - J-16, 22% - J-10, 18.5% - J-20, 11.8% - J-11B, 11.8% - J-7, 13.5% - other/obsolete
As a closing note I'll make a prediction that if J-35 enters production soon it will first replace J-11A/B units. J-10 despite slowly getting old (A) is significantly cheaper to operate and it seems to be used for support and secondary defense duties e.g. missile defense - hence the number of units in Central Theater. I am not sure as to what will happen to JH-7 units. Probably more shuffling around of other types as J-20 and J-35 are produced.
Great to have another rundown of units and numbers, especially compared to 2021.
One thing I'd like to point out is incompleteness of scramble's data and their methodology. They basically rely on occasional satellite images analyzed by enthusiasts and eyewitness accounts of types observed. That works fairly well for new types. As a J-20 coming to a base, or even a J-16 to some extent, is an exciting event. But a J-10 coming to a base or some old J-11 - that's not as sexy. So it's not gonna be noticed or reported as thoroughly.
End result is likely that retirement of old types is less reported than new types coming in. And re-deployment of used types to another unit is also gonna be less reported.
I would wager that as of end of 2024, it's likely that there are actually even fewer than 4 J7 and J8 units really active. And instead of those, that their units are using second hand J-10, J-11 and so on.
That's also likely due to the fact that it doesn't make sense that there's no Su-35 units in 2024. There's no sense in J-11B having fewer units than in 2021. Possibly some J10 units too, being lower in count in 2024. Markoz explained he simply went with the more modern type in a mixed unit, but knowing there was 24 su-35 ordered, for example, tells us there must be another unit somewhere else which is getting those su-35s. It's also possible that completely new units have been stood up at places, and that those have not been observed yet.
So the actual 2024 count should likely be beefed up by a few of those newer types and the number of J7/8 should be close to zero by now.
Also, if PLANAF is mentioned, then J-15 units should also not be omitted.
One thing I'd like to point out is incompleteness of scramble's data and their methodology. They basically rely on occasional satellite images analyzed by enthusiasts and eyewitness accounts of types observed. That works fairly well for new types. As a J-20 coming to a base, or even a J-16 to some extent, is an exciting event. But a J-10 coming to a base or some old J-11 - that's not as sexy. So it's not gonna be noticed or reported as thoroughly.
End result is likely that retirement of old types is less reported than new types coming in. And re-deployment of used types to another unit is also gonna be less reported.
I would wager that as of end of 2024, it's likely that there are actually even fewer than 4 J7 and J8 units really active. And instead of those, that their units are using second hand J-10, J-11 and so on.
That's also likely due to the fact that it doesn't make sense that there's no Su-35 units in 2024. There's no sense in J-11B having fewer units than in 2021. Possibly some J10 units too, being lower in count in 2024. Markoz explained he simply went with the more modern type in a mixed unit, but knowing there was 24 su-35 ordered, for example, tells us there must be another unit somewhere else which is getting those su-35s. It's also possible that completely new units have been stood up at places, and that those have not been observed yet.
So the actual 2024 count should likely be beefed up by a few of those newer types and the number of J7/8 should be close to zero by now.
Also, if PLANAF is mentioned, then J-15 units should also not be omitted.
Thanks a lot and indeed most interesting, however I'm a bit surprised - even though I haven't checked everything!
This is my point of question:
I thought, we have just seen the Su-35 recently? Why do you think they were retired?
Amazing map. I have a question, how come PLAAF doesn't have any H-6 outside of central and southern China?
They weren't. See the second paragraph of my post. Scramble lists 6th Brigade as a mixed unit with both J-16 and Su-35 and I put it on the map as "S/6 J-16, Su-35". However in the tables which measure a trend I list it as a J-16 units because this is objectively the natural direction of the unit's evolution.
Explanation for those interested in tis reasoning:
Su-35 were delivered to PLAAF by 2019 and the airframe is young I doubt they are going to serve their entire service life. Su-35 is simply too incompatible with the PLAAF ecosystem to benefit from the necessary multipliers. It is a Russian design which means it is designed to fight according to Russian doctrine which is ground-led and emphasises small air formation tactics. PLAAF embraced the American doctrinal direction and is air-led and emphasises large air formation tactics. Su-35 will increasingly be the odd one out and the benefits of upgrading it may not be worth the effort or cost.
Su-35 is also too obsolete compared to J-16 or J-20. Its radar and electronic systems are limited by what systems architecture was available to Russia at the time Su-35 entered service in 2012. It is not up to par with latest Chinese equipment which is introduced at a far greater speed and rate than anything Russia is capable of. The plane that was shot down in Ukraine in early 2022 provided a lot of information about the systems and the analysts weren't impressed. Russian propaganda makes a lot of it, but it's at best at the level of Rafale's PESA radar just with greater peak power. ECCM and jamming systems are also severely lacking because Russia lacks sufficiently miniaturised solutions. This is why Russian ground EW is fairly capable but not air. The crashed Su-35 was filled with Chinese components which showed a dependence on foreign components greater than e.g. European designs on American parts.
Su-35 is an interim design while VKS waited for PAK-FA. It was a stop-gap measure and replacement for old Su-27S/P which didn't have ARH or modern radars. It is early 2000s design at best which entered service a decade later due to budget problems. Again, Russian propaganda oversells the fighter, also because it was an export product, but it wasn't meant to fulfill the role that it does today. It is more like J-11B in that regard, except that it may even be less capable than J-11BG in some respects.
Furthermore there are also only 24 of them which means that at 60% readiness there are 14-15 available at any given time. That's not enough for any significant operation so I expect that by the end of this decade Su-35s is moved to a training & tactics unit where they will serve to simulate Russian capability both OPFOR and collaborative. Su-35s will be the backbone of VKS for the next 20 years and this is the best opportunity for PLAAF can develop tactics without revealing too much about their own aircraft. It may also serve as a platform for experimenting with integration of Chinese weapons with Russian systems, for the purpose of providing that option to VKS. It doesn't make sense to retire a functioning fighter but it also doesn't make sense to keep it in line service beyond its practical use because very soon they will consume more resources than they generate.
Because they're primarily long-range tactical strike and anti-shipping aircraft. That means Southern and Eastern theaters as primary and Central as reserve and support - at least this is how I read the doctrinal position of CTC forces.
Their usefulness in WTC or NTC is extremely limited. They aren't penetration aircraft so they can't operate without escort in areas where enemy presence is likely. Over sea enemy presence is limited to carriers so they can fly more freely.
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Some of the NTC airbases are closer to US though. Maybe China doesn't want to spook Russia.
Su-35 can be used for air policing/escort missions to save airframe hours for J-16/20.
WTC maintains rotational a H-6 detachment, usually at Korla but previously at Kashgar.
Some of those WTC locations seem off. 110th for example is at Urumqi South, 98th near Chongqing, not Lhasa.
WTC maintains rotational a H-6 detachment, usually at Korla but previously at Kashgar.
Some of those WTC locations seem off. 110th for example is at Urumqi South, 98th near Chongqing, not Lhasa.
Using only what scramble currently says, and disregarding their comments where they list certain units as possibly rumored to have started receiving new types, I am getting this:
9 frontline J20 units.
Presence of J20 in 2 more training/test units
11 frontline J16 units.
Presence of J16 in 4 more training/test units
7 frontline J11B units.
Presence of J11B in 4 more training/test units
1 frontline J11A unit.
5 frontline J-10A units.
Presence of J-10A/S in 4 more training/test units.
9 frontline J-10B/C units. (plus the air demo team)
Presence of J-10B/C in 3 more training/test units
9 frontline JH-7/A units.
3 frontline J-15 units.
1 frontline Su-30 unit.
3 frontline J-7
1 more J-7 training unit
But the above does not include units with mixed types.
2 mixed units operate J-16
2 mixed units operate J-11B
2 mixed units operate J-11A
1 mixed unit operates J-10A
1 mixed training unit operates J-10S
3 mixed units operate Su-30
1 mixed unit operates Su-35
Now, we have to adjust the above for known numbers of procured planes in recent years. J-11Bs are unlikely to be retired. Even the majority of J-10A are unlikely to have been retired. I'd wager that even a decent number of J-11A are still serving.
Basically, we're probably some 50+ J-10A short.
We're also possibly 50+ short on J-11A.
Assuming there haven't been many more than 260 J-10B/C produced, we may not be short on those. But if, for example, we know that 300 B/C models were made, then we're likely short on 40 of those as well.
That's like 4-5 units worth of planes missing. So either there are A) whole new units in existence, not known to us and scramble.
or B) units listed using J-7 are in fact using more modern planes, and J-7s have been retired.
or C) some of the existing units are using many more planes than the average, some possibly even approaching 50 airframes.
We do know that there are a few over 100 J-15 in use. With just 3 units known, it's plausible that at least one of those J-15 units is in fact some training unit with over 40 airframes.
Also, two training units are listed using J-10A/S only, so those too might be some unusually big units. But then again, why would you need so much training capacity using such old types like J-10A? I get the S type, but scramble explicitly lists A type in those training units. And if just a few As are in there, with most planes being S types, then where are all the As? We might still be short on A models. by 2004 there were barely a few dozen As made. it doesn't make sense that PLAAF would keep J7s for so long but retired J-10As after just 20 years of service.
9 frontline J20 units.
Presence of J20 in 2 more training/test units
11 frontline J16 units.
Presence of J16 in 4 more training/test units
7 frontline J11B units.
Presence of J11B in 4 more training/test units
1 frontline J11A unit.
5 frontline J-10A units.
Presence of J-10A/S in 4 more training/test units.
9 frontline J-10B/C units. (plus the air demo team)
Presence of J-10B/C in 3 more training/test units
9 frontline JH-7/A units.
3 frontline J-15 units.
1 frontline Su-30 unit.
3 frontline J-7
1 more J-7 training unit
But the above does not include units with mixed types.
2 mixed units operate J-16
2 mixed units operate J-11B
2 mixed units operate J-11A
1 mixed unit operates J-10A
1 mixed training unit operates J-10S
3 mixed units operate Su-30
1 mixed unit operates Su-35
Now, we have to adjust the above for known numbers of procured planes in recent years. J-11Bs are unlikely to be retired. Even the majority of J-10A are unlikely to have been retired. I'd wager that even a decent number of J-11A are still serving.
Basically, we're probably some 50+ J-10A short.
We're also possibly 50+ short on J-11A.
Assuming there haven't been many more than 260 J-10B/C produced, we may not be short on those. But if, for example, we know that 300 B/C models were made, then we're likely short on 40 of those as well.
That's like 4-5 units worth of planes missing. So either there are A) whole new units in existence, not known to us and scramble.
or B) units listed using J-7 are in fact using more modern planes, and J-7s have been retired.
or C) some of the existing units are using many more planes than the average, some possibly even approaching 50 airframes.
We do know that there are a few over 100 J-15 in use. With just 3 units known, it's plausible that at least one of those J-15 units is in fact some training unit with over 40 airframes.
Also, two training units are listed using J-10A/S only, so those too might be some unusually big units. But then again, why would you need so much training capacity using such old types like J-10A? I get the S type, but scramble explicitly lists A type in those training units. And if just a few As are in there, with most planes being S types, then where are all the As? We might still be short on A models. by 2004 there were barely a few dozen As made. it doesn't make sense that PLAAF would keep J7s for so long but retired J-10As after just 20 years of service.
Is it possible that all Air Brigades are expanding from the standard 24 in three flight groups of 8 organization to 30 in three flight groups of 10? This would track with some attempted estimates about J-20 brigade size over in that plane's thread several months ago, when it was found the known number of brigades does not align with the known production estimates (assuming each brigade has 24 aircraft).
It is possible training units with the J-10A are much bigger than a normal combat air brigade. In the 1960s, the average Soviet Fighter Aviation Regiment with MiG-17 had 60 some airframes, but some training formations with the MiG-15 (more or less similar aircraft) had up to 100 airframes. Making a statement that this is the case would be speculation, of course.
Also, if used for training, perhaps some early J-11 and J-10A airframes may be used for the training of maintenance personnel. In this case, perhaps it is possible they would be stored almost exclusively inside hangars and may not be considered as part of a training unit's flight worthy complement (if part of a flying brigade at all).
I too have encountered this "there are way more planes produced than units" problem when researching for my own OOB project, but I use it for CMO so I don't particularly fret about it. It's still an interesting question anyhow.
When I first started working on my OOB in 2022 or so, these three bases in the NTC were simply listed as "J-7 operations have come to an end" but with no new unit apparently identified there: Wafangdian, Liuhe, Xuzhou/Huangjizhen. Scramble still lists most of them as empty, except for Xuzhou which "appears ready to accept a unit operating J-10 like aircraft" but that's no confirmation.