A New Cold War?

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
So we essentially want the same thing, but clothed in different terms.
No.
"Foster and out people in power" which will either be by coup or by direct arms, it's also what I'm talking about.
No, not the only way (and not the way China would do).
"that want self determination and not to grovel".

But if that self determination is that they want to treat China and her interests unfairly, you'd surely not cheer for it?
They can choose to do so.

Wouldn't be smart, and the consequences likely would mean they either pay up for doing so, or change their attitude / interests.

(In other words, action in real life will have consequences).

And they don't need to grovel because China is not a racist society, so they don't need the grovelling, but in the no grovelling clause it includes no western or other imperialist worship. Which de facto means not deviating the mutually beneficial relationship with China.
Your original proposal pretty much suggested doing so though.

"Essentially, you people don't know how to manage yourself, so some I approve of can come and be your boss and boss you around)"

But don't you also think that when you explain the necessity of promoting self determination and backbone against the west in their populations and leaders? If these people knew how to manage themselves, there would be no need to change anything about the status quo at all. We should let Japanese keep praising in Yasukuni. Let Philippines and Korea keep operating brothels for US army. Let most of their population keep eating pagpag while elites rant against "communists" in SEA.
It's not the same?

Giving suggestions / tips / advice is not the same as actively going in and giving orders / determine things for others.

They can choose to not go for self determination, but then they gotta face all the consequences of doing so.

What you say is of course what the public narrative should be. I'm just being off mask.

To clarify I've never once said that when China takes influence over these areas they should treat anyone unjustly. China should spread to them their positive values so all countries in the network can improve development together. But first China needs to take that influence. And you don't get it with isolationism and appealing to reason. You need aggressive expansion strategies.
Your original comment pretty much said to outright colonize those countries.

That's quite different from "China takes influence over these areas".

As for that (increasing influence), I do agree. But I think it's already happening, and that it likely would not need the "aggressive expansion strategies" you think of.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
These arguments on "self-determination" and "colonialism" can pretty much be understood down to psychology and biases. Specifically, humans understand each other through how they would feel themselves. This creates all sort of hilarious biases.

Ex: Parents A are harsh toward their child. Parents A believe they could have done better if their parents are more assertive. They appreciate harsher discipline, and so should their child. The child never understood that, he only think parents are mean. The kid never experienced "I could have done better in society if my parents are more assertive" kind of experience.

Here the parent wrongly thought their harsh style will be received as act of kindness. Humans often misunderstand other by using themselves as the template. The parents A lament how ungrateful their child is.

This is kind of like China right now. They are sort of the parent here. They have developed past the tribalistic identity, and now understood the importance of sovriegnty, anti-imperialism, nationalism. They think others will appreciate this too because they do. They are wrong. Only country with certain level of social development will.

Some country are like the kid here. Their tribalistic thinking would be: how to make their ethnicity dominate? How do I gain most for my family?

Why would I develop my country to let other ethnics benefit?

Why should I resist imperialists when my family can gain most as comprador?

So of course China's rhetoric falls on deaf ears. They are not on same frequency. China needs to tailor their message essentially. Israel knows. Say what you want, but Israel knows their stuff when it comes to influence. Forget about consistency, sell your brand to different market with different image.

Ex2: Uncle B is super chill with that previous kid. He never say "do your homework or I slap your ass". He say "I am out for booze dont let your mom know. I'll bring macnugget for you." For better or worse the uncle speaks kids language, and can influence the kid benevolently. Even if at first, binge junk food seemed counter productive.

Basically, China should understand other country are different. Backward, maybe, but China must put aside their bias and communicate at right level. I will elaborate on next post.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
Africans: maintain current rhetorics. they have a lot in common with China, recently kicked out European colonizers. Current rhetoric is resonating with them.

But make no mistake, this relation with African is not initiated through speech like "properity, development, harmony". It is because Mao kicked European ass they look up to China. It is because only China gave them infrastructure for cheap that they got to know about China. Gaining trust and maintaining relation is actually very different. Because in latter case people already have respect for you(easy), and former require you assert respect where previously do not exist (much harder). I will get to the "assert respect" part next post. For now I stick to rhetorics.

East Asians: Current peace rhetorics dont work. Focus on overcoming current economical crisis together. Talk of oversea violence against Asians. They are advanced, nationalistic. They feel China should be beneath them, yet subconsciously they know they are outmatched. Talk of peace is a sign of weakness, which emboldens "China is beneath us" part of the brain. Asserting dominance don't work yet, because they feel "if I try a bit harder, I can reverse the situation". Their anxiety cannot be suppressed, so divert the anxiety elsewhere. Couple years later they would be on acceptance stage. If not, then asserting dominance like on Philipine today is a viable strat.

Philipine/weak but hostile countries: These country are ethnic based. They only respect might. So instead of waiting for them to challenge red lines, they should be pushed around a bit. Take a shoal here and there. Drag a boat away. Damage a few patrol boat by ramming. Basically, establish who is the boss around without resorting to war. Once it was established, sooth the relation by returning some rocks conditionally. Which ever elite cooperates should receive some level of protection like asset keeping. Foster a faction of elite who is less dependent of west.

India: Fundamentally an elite driven society that average person just follow along without second thought. Instead of engage them as a nation through industrial investment, engage them at ruling elite's level like gifts.

They admire strength, but over estimate their own. They love face, but will gladly throw others under the bus for it. Change current strategy of treating them as equal. That means no rotating chair to them in SCO, they must never be in a position in charge. Stop feeding their grandiose of being China's equal. They can get face here and there speaking to the global south, but only under China's generosity. They are not expected to contribute, but get freebie here and there. This is sufficient to keep them fully go west, and that is enough.

Middle East: The most precious thing in middle east is security. External threats are immense, only dwarfed by internal threats. Their form of government is inherently weak, so their concern is more on security than build a developed country. Current economical approach is not resonating very much. Yes China is the biggest oil buyer, but money comes easily when all you need is dig for oil. Security is priceless. Since China cannot garrison military base, Russia has to do it. But ideally China should have some military presence in the regions, even if symbolic.

Recent Israeli pager attack shows importance of cyber security. China can be the source of cyber security and financial security. When people cant control the present, how do they plan for future? Chinese development plan give them the future, but they crave the present security the most. Give them a safe place to park money, give the elites security to use their wealth. Only then are they incentivised to become wealthier.
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
War in 2027 according to Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti

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it's planning for conflict. However with flat budget, and that unrealistic high fleet size target, I don't see how they can achieve that

From reading the article, it seems they are going to heavily focus on their unmanned systems and the experience they have learned from Ukraine.

Dunno how realistic it is though when what they are facing against is the industrial juggernaut called China. Good fun all around I guess
 
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Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
it's planning for conflict. However with flat budget, and that unrealistic high fleet size target, I don't see how they can achieve that

From reading the article, it seems they are going to heavily focus on their unmanned systems and the experience they have learned from Ukraine.

Dunno how realistic it is though when what they are facing against is the industrial juggernaut called China. Good fun all around I guess

The best comment coming from a lucid and realistic American:

Let's recap:
We're preparing to go to the opposite side of the world to stop the largest navy in the world, backed up by the most productive industry in the world, manned by the most populous country in the world, from taking an island 80 miles off their coast.
...and we have two years.

Well, it's a good thing we haven't spent the last few years wasting all of our time and resources babysitting europe and the middle east.
 

montyp165

Senior Member
Like I said before I’ll believe it once they start reshoring vital but not sexy items like penicillin.
Based on previous and current observations the US deep state and MIC resembles far more the Nazi German equivalent than their own WW2 counterpart, and current events are pressing even further along those lines than that same establishment would ever be willing to countenance. It's only going to end up in the same way for them given those circumstances.
 
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