2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis
- Thread starter plawolf
- Start date
Iran's industrial capacity has been hit. About 70% of steel production is offline or destroyed. Chemical precursors for explosives filler and rocket fuel are being imported. China is mercantile and its interests in the GCC are significantly greater than its interests in Iran. China doesn't do "donations" out of altruism.
Iran has been under crippling sanctions for 40 years, if it was so easy to force capitulation on economic terms, Iran would have given up decades ago. Iran can fight for a very very long time because it's just drones and missiles at this point which is relatively cheap to produce.
Said by Netanyahu.
And you are taking that seriously.
Just compare what was dropped on Nazi Germany in WWII to what has been dropped on Iran in one month of this war.
If anything, I would be far more concerned about the already reported 30 to 50 percent depletion of key US stockpiles globally, interceptors, and standoff munitions, which even American media have acknowledged from multiple sources.
So what?
Importing something to expand faster does not mean you lack domestic capacity.
And the funniest part is that even American sources admit they did not destroy even a third of Iran’s missile capability, while also admitting they do not even know the true size of Iran’s stockpile.
So the confidence is fake from the start.
If anything, the real damage is probably closer to 5 to 10 percent, with a lot of the strikes just hitting decoys or collapsing launcher entrances that Iran just dug back out.
And as for “China is mercantile,” that is just lazy thinking.
No major state operates on some pure merchant calculator logic.
States weigh trade, security, leverage, geography, escalation, future balance, and long-term power all at once.
Pretending China only sees invoice totals is childish.
Broski, be realistic.
Between Saudi Arabia and Iran, who do you think has DF-21s? China would drop Iran for the GCC in a heartbeat if it had to choose between the two. In fact, China already threw Iran under the bus in 2019.
I certainly hope so. Iran's offensive strike frequency was already declining before the ceasefire.
Well yea, but don't forget, US goal was regime change via decapitation of top leaders and CIA-backed mass protests. All Iran needs to do is survive. US can't keep bombing Iran every 8 months, it needs enduring boots on the ground to truly pacify Iran.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
You know what Iran can easily do to solve their storage problem without needing to shut down the wells? Burn the excess output. This has been done many times in the past, most recently by the Russians following the fallout from the Ukraine war.
Oil revenue is only a factor when Iran needs to import things from abroad that it needs foreign currency for. For domestic spending they can literally print as much money as they want.
And if Iran needed that, I’m sure a certain superpower would be happy to provide some for future oil and gas supplies.
Between Iran and Saudi Arabia right now, only someone half-dead in the brain would pick Saudi Arabia.
It is a sitting duck, no real military spine, no real structural depth, no serious economy beyond oil wealth and an inflated image.
And history is not kind to that type.
When you have a rich actor with a lot to show off but no serious ability to fight back, it usually ends one way: it becomes a piggy bank for whoever actually has power.
That is more or less the Saudi trajectory now with Iran, and we are already 95 percent there.
Its last real use at this point is to de-dollarize faster and move more of its trade with China into yuan if it wants to guarantee its own continued existence.
Because Saudi Arabia and GCC are not negotiating from leverage anymore.
It is negotiating from vulnerability, and its best path now is to drift away from the US and edge closer to Pakistan and China through the regional balance.
That sounds like saying China's intrested in SK is significantly greater than in NK, and China doesn't "donate". Yet China didn't hesitate to destroy SK's business in China, sanction SK of RE supply when SK choose to host THAAD. And China continiously "selling" oil to NK.
Yes, China pays great attention to business, but China pays even higher attention to strategic alignment. You may be aware of the term 吃饭砸锅, China does not tolerate countries who want business benifit from China but stay on the US side.
China will loose interest in GCC if they choose to hang on to US. Seriously, just having some oil does not make one much valuable.
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In all honesty, I don't think the US's strategic goals have remained static. For the US, the GCC and Iran blowing each other up and permanently crippling the energy extraction industry of the region may be sufficient.
The US would immediately become the ones who decide if nations can keep the lights on. Before you say that other countries would look for alternatives, you have to consider if their stockpiles will last long enough to make the transition. Until alternatives do come online, the US has coercive dominance.
Personally, I still think escorting merchant shipping through the American blockade is the best way to break the system of their coersion.
I would agree but China has STILL not escorted merchant shipping (even its own) through the American blockade. MUCH TO MY IMMENSE FRUSTRATION.
Investment volume is very different from giving one side strategic weapons that can strike the other's territory.