Trump tweets might be heavy and you see the US media circles talking tough this or that, they do everything about US portraying "winnings" short of a declaration of a public holiday. (you might though, who knows what authority a US president has, if there is some laws or provisions there's one, looking at Trump's character, he may declare a holiday. He and Modi is of the same creature tend to certain aspect of their nature. I'm calling Trump will announce a holiday, that he won bigly, with premise if there's such provision exist-I din't read/research too deep into this). US been shifting their accepted off ramp from regime change, to no nuclear to know lowered to low hanging fruit of just give me this and then I call it a victory. It's all publicity for a movie script. It's more of face saving for Trump that he can sell it to the American Audience. We knows Iran already said, there's no closure of the Straits you see.....ships are sailing, it's the control that Iran has to allow who can pass or not. It's just close for US and it's allies. You see Trump/media always play of words. You don't see the headlines..."OPEN THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ FOR ME US/Israel/Allies" but instead you get headlines "OPEN THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ" as if the impression it's close for all. These tire propaganda play of headlines gone on for decades. Whatever the title/headlines you read....you just put "....FOR ME" at the suffix behind of that title.
2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis
- Thread starter plawolf
- Start date
It looks like Pakistani negotiators are getting just drafts directly from the U.S. regime regarding what they should post on X.
It's totally pathetic.
If Iran gets tricked into ceasefire based on the "respect and good will from Pakistani negotiators", then Iran is screwed.
Diplomacy at this point is useless. "Negotiating" with someone who wants to exterminate Iran is insane. There is no "diplomacy" in the real sence.
It's like Tutsi trying to negotiate with Hutu in Rwanda during 1990s whilst being slaughtered. It is simply not possible to negotiate in a real diplomatic sense.
Ceasefire will weaken Iran's position as the two genocide-based identities will get their supplies and everything else for another round of bombing.
It's totally pathetic.
If Iran gets tricked into ceasefire based on the "respect and good will from Pakistani negotiators", then Iran is screwed.
Diplomacy at this point is useless. "Negotiating" with someone who wants to exterminate Iran is insane. There is no "diplomacy" in the real sence.
It's like Tutsi trying to negotiate with Hutu in Rwanda during 1990s whilst being slaughtered. It is simply not possible to negotiate in a real diplomatic sense.
Ceasefire will weaken Iran's position as the two genocide-based identities will get their supplies and everything else for another round of bombing.
I mean ceasefire only in the sense that the US stops firing at Iran, and Trump gets a face-saving exit from his own imaginary sixth deadline so he does not have to extend it a seventh time.
Iran, on the other hand, does not even need to “accept” much of anything in strategic terms, because from the beginning it has been the side responding to attacks.
So if that is what “ceasefire” means, it is mostly meaningless for Iran strategically.
If Hormuz stays closed, then nothing important changes.
In fact, those two weeks would just move the US even closer to economic implosion.
If, however, Iran agrees to also reopen Hormuz during that period, then yes, that would be genuinely stupid, and they could end up cooking themselves strategically.
Iran, on the other hand, does not even need to “accept” much of anything in strategic terms, because from the beginning it has been the side responding to attacks.
So if that is what “ceasefire” means, it is mostly meaningless for Iran strategically.
If Hormuz stays closed, then nothing important changes.
In fact, those two weeks would just move the US even closer to economic implosion.
If, however, Iran agrees to also reopen Hormuz during that period, then yes, that would be genuinely stupid, and they could end up cooking themselves strategically.
both are bad. whether just a ceasefire or a ceasefire with Hormuz opening.
if a ceasefire happens this would allow the US to restock on interceptors and restart the war effort. also any way you cannot have a ceasefire while Hormuz is closed. how do you close Hormuz? by shooting at ships that break the closure. and if you shoot at ships then the ceasefire fails.
as another member said some hours ago. Iran should just tell the Pakistanis thank you for your efforts but we reject the ceasefire.
I don’t think temporarily opening the Strait of Hormuz is particularly significant. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz relies purely on military force, and Iran is fully capable of establishing a 14-day temporary passage period at the start of the ceasefire. It can then close the strait again when the United States threatens Iran once more.
Iran’s objective is to force the world to accept the reality that it effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz, to accept its collection of tolls for passage through the strait, and to accept that it can close the strait at any time when facing threats from the United States or Israel. I believe that no matter how long the ceasefire lasts, it will not prevent Iran from maintaining de facto control over the strait.
Iran’s objective is to force the world to accept the reality that it effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz, to accept its collection of tolls for passage through the strait, and to accept that it can close the strait at any time when facing threats from the United States or Israel. I believe that no matter how long the ceasefire lasts, it will not prevent Iran from maintaining de facto control over the strait.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
If Iran takes a ceasefire, there better be 800 trains/ship-loads of Chinese shit they're ready to unload and assemble into a new missile fleet. This would only work if they are ready to vastly out-build and out-restock the US/Israel. I'm leaning towards no ceasefire as well. Iranians should be conditioned by now; everytime they accept a deal for peace, they are betrayed but when they fight without negotiating, they achieve world-shocking results that stun the enemy into asking for ceasefire.
Restocking interceptors and everything else that the US lacks now takes months or even years, not two weeks. It's a structural problem.
And a ceasefire, in the normal sense, just means the actual exchange of fire between two states stops.
In this war so far, the US and Israel hit Iranian targets first, then Iran responds by climbing the escalation ladder ever so slightly.
So if there are no new US or Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure, then there is no immediate reason for Iran to keep hitting the GCC, Israel, or US bases.
Hormuz is a separate issue. Closing it is not the same thing as trading fire directly with another state. It is more about attacking or blocking any ship that tries to pass without Iranian permission.
And that is the key point.
Every day Hormuz stays effectively closed while the US does nothing meaningful about it is another day the US gets pushed closer to economic and social breakdown.
So in the end, everything revolves around Hormuz. As long as it stays shut, and Iran and its current regime hold out long enough, they win.
This ceasefire obsession from the American side probably comes down to something as stupid as this, like usual:
And if it is not that, then it is probably a cover and creating space for the next disaster (ground invasion), likely both.
Edit:
Regarding this announcement, there are a few important things to note:
- Due to Trump being a lower life form, he could be imagining or misinterpreting information completely now.
- I think this is a very likely attempt to buy the US space for a ground invasion and not a serious settlement yet.
- But Trump's willingness to flirt with Iran's triumphant 10-point plan hints at a true settlement on the horizon.
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this is a strategic mistake from Iran. the US has no control over the war. it is Israel that decides what Trump's policies are. are we supposed to believe Israel gave up on a greater Israel? Israel wants to expand. they want a greater Israel, this means the war on Lebanon will continue. and the war with Iran will restart once the US restocks on interceptors.
fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me and now this the third time Iran was fooled into negotiations. I guess Trump's veiled threat of fully nuking 90 million Iranians out of existance when he said he could kill an entire civilisation tonight caused the Iranians to chicken out. it isn't Trump that TACOed. this time it was the Iranians that TACOed out of this but for Iran they won't be allowed to chicken out forever since the war will start.
fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me and now this the third time Iran was fooled into negotiations. I guess Trump's veiled threat of fully nuking 90 million Iranians out of existance when he said he could kill an entire civilisation tonight caused the Iranians to chicken out. it isn't Trump that TACOed. this time it was the Iranians that TACOed out of this but for Iran they won't be allowed to chicken out forever since the war will start.
This ceasefire won't end well for Iran. The U.S. regime troops, ships and aircraft are still nearby and amassing what they can so that they can try the invasion crap since the Kurds from Erbil-occupied area of Iraq didn't let themselves be used so easely this time around, it seems. And Iran did hammer them with missiles to give them an idea of what happens if these Kurds from Erbil tried to cross into Iran as "ground troops" with U.S. regime air support.
That leaves us with the only option, which is the U.S. trying something themselves.
Any kind of ceasefire should have demanded a withdrawal of the U.S. regime forces, especially aircraft and ships. I think USS Imperial Boxer and USS Imperial Tripoli are nearby, with A. Lincoln as well and George H.W. Bush on its way.
In addition to all of the above, there are 14 Arleigh Burke destroyers. There is no real ceasefire as long as all this (along with H.W. Bush on its way) is deployed nearby.
If there is a real intention regarding ceasefire, why is H.W. Bush on its way then? I haven't even mentioned bombers and other aircraft.
That leaves us with the only option, which is the U.S. trying something themselves.
Any kind of ceasefire should have demanded a withdrawal of the U.S. regime forces, especially aircraft and ships. I think USS Imperial Boxer and USS Imperial Tripoli are nearby, with A. Lincoln as well and George H.W. Bush on its way.
In addition to all of the above, there are 14 Arleigh Burke destroyers. There is no real ceasefire as long as all this (along with H.W. Bush on its way) is deployed nearby.
If there is a real intention regarding ceasefire, why is H.W. Bush on its way then? I haven't even mentioned bombers and other aircraft.
