2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

Keeping the main Iran War thread discussion only is fine and all, but in this day and age of fake news and deliberate misinformation from even the highest levels of government, even official announcements can be highly unreliable or even outright lies. So it’s impossible to make sense of the news without some level of strategic analysis.

FriedButter said:

The Houthis has been waiting for someone to give them a reason to join.

Will that finally happen?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2036255010393137467

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It makes zero sense to Saudi Arabia to join what is increasingly looking to be the loosing side of this war. Trump can TACO and run away, they live in the region, and what happens if they join the war on America’s side and America just down tools and runs away?

Some Gulf states like Qatar and Kuwait are already in too deep, so they might double down since they are already beyond the point of no return, but it would be a move of the highest folly for Saudi Arabia to actively jump deeper into this mess.

In fact, I think even Trump’s regime would be working to keep them out of the war more directly even if the Saudis were of the suicidal persuasion. The western economies are already at death’s door with oil and gas supply disruption affecting the Gulf, how much worse will that be if the Saudis jumped in, Iran activates the Houthis and now there’s no oil coming out of the Red Sea either and the Suez Canal is effectively blockaded?

Imperial Terror must never be underestimated or "assume" any good scenarios, or calculate anything out of "it appears" that the Orange may do this or that.
Always assume worst case scenario and follow the positioning of the enemy forces. As it looks right now, Imperial forces will invade a part of Iran, whether or not its "just" Kharg Island or anything more than that, it is truly unacceptable. However, the situation was already unacceptable when the Iran was attacked without any provocation from Iran.

There are different was of looking at this. Some say that the more Iran holds out, the "better for" Iran, but I don't think its good to be hammered with bombs every day, "the more the better" type of thinking.

As it stands now, everything still points towards Iran being smashed or degraded, or even occupation of Kharg Island.

Earlier today, Jizzers declared that they will take southern Lebanon. Just like that, "we are taking it", period.

DPRK declared yesterday that nukes are forever, and more nukes will be added. Smart choice, as DPRK always was compared to Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela and now Iran.

Algeria, or PDRA as it is officially called, declared 25 billion usd military budget, so they know where enemies around them are.

Not sure if Iran will make it out of this on the "winning side". Best scenario is a draw where the government is still intact, and having Kharg Island still under its control.

Iraq, Libya and Syria put up a fight a well, which was very honorable (can't say the same about Venezuela, and we don't even know what the F is going on there still today), but they still lost to overwhelming Imperial Terror.

Some would say that "Afghanistan won", but if one takes a look at how Afghanistan is today, not sure one can call that a victory, as they don't have anything going on for them. All Taliban does is just beating women all day long and being Hindutva cucks for Modi-regime against Pakistan.

Yemen still holds in an impressive way, however, not exactly an ideal situation as Imperial forces are planning next stage for parts of Yemen as well.

I am just so fvcking pissed that we cannot see just one clear victory for the people of the Global South, for the all innocent people that have been killed by racist, fascist, Imperial regimes.

NorthKimBestKim said:

Imperial Terror must never be underestimated or "assume" any good scenarios, or calculate anything out of "it appears" that the Orange may do this or that.
Always assume worst case scenario and follow the positioning of the enemy forces. As it looks right now, Imperial forces will invade a part of Iran, whether or not its "just" Kharg Island or anything more than that, it is truly unacceptable. However, the situation was already unacceptable when the Iran was attacked without any provocation from Iran.

There are different was of looking at this. Some say that the more Iran holds out, the "better for" Iran, but I don't think its good to be hammered with bombs every day, "the more the better" type of thinking.

As it stands now, everything still points towards Iran being smashed or degraded, or even occupation of Kharg Island.

Earlier today, Jizzers declared that they will take southern Lebanon. Just like that, "we are taking it", period.

DPRK declared yesterday that nukes are forever, and more nukes will be added. Smart choice, as DPRK always was compared to Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela and now Iran.

Algeria, or PDRA as it is officially called, declared 25 billion usd military budget, so they know where enemies around them are.

Not sure if Iran will make it out of this on the "winning side". Best scenario is a draw where the government is still intact, and having Kharg Island still under its control.

Iraq, Libya and Syria put up a fight a well, which was very honorable (can't say the same about Venezuela, and we don't even know what the F is going on there still today), but they still lost to overwhelming Imperial Terror.

Some would say that "Afghanistan won", but if one takes a look at how Afghanistan is today, not sure one can call that a victory, as they don't have anything going on for them. All Taliban does is just beating women all day long and being Hindutva cucks for Modi-regime against Pakistan.

Yemen still holds in an impressive way, however, not exactly an ideal situation as Imperial forces are planning next stage for parts of Yemen as well.

I am just so fvcking pissed that we cannot see just one clear victory for the people of the Global South, for the all innocent people that have been killed by racist, fascist, Imperial regimes.

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Holding out longer is obviously not better for Iran because it will get pummeled hard in the upcoming weeks and maybe months. But the alternative is arguably worse since the whole country will be fragmented and destroyed. It is much better to die on your feet than die begging on your knees.

NorthKimBestKim said:

As it looks right now, Imperial forces will invade a part of Iran, whether or not its "just" Kharg Island or anything more than that, it is truly unacceptable.

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This is exactly the kind of scenario the Iranians would pray for, basically the best case for Iran and much of the Global South.

Free propaganda footage, free POWs, and more leverage for further concessions.

Those 10,000 soldiers would be a gift, pure sacrificial lambs.

I seriously doubt even the combined West could draft enough manpower now to pull off a successful ground invasion of Iran.

NorthKimBestKim said:

There are different was of looking at this. Some say that the more Iran holds out, the "better for" Iran, but I don't think its good to be hammered with bombs every day, "the more the better" type of thinking.

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I don't think they are exactly feeling it like that. Iran has 90 plus million people and the size of half of Europe.

It is not Israel, a country the size of New Jersey, where people are basically living in bomb shelters 24/7.

NorthKimBestKim said:

Earlier today, Jizzers declared that they will take southern Lebanon. Just like that, "we are taking it", period.

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I can also declare tomorrow that I am taking Mars, but that does not make it real. They have not even dealt with Hamas yet.

NorthKimBestKim said:

Not sure if Iran will make it out of this on the "winning side". Best scenario is a draw where the government is still intact, and having Kharg Island still under its control.

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Worst case for Iran, it still emerges as the regional hegemon with sanctions lifted after decades.

Best case, the US is too arrogant to admit defeat in time and collapses internally under the strain.

NorthKimBestKim said:

Some would say that "Afghanistan won", but if one takes a look at how Afghanistan is today, not sure one can call that a victory, as they don't have anything going on for them. All Taliban does is just beating women all day long and being Hindutva cucks for Modi-regime against Pakistan.

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Afghanistan was already a nightmare before the US walked in and wasted trillions there.

Strange how terrible borders, messy ethnic composition, and impossible geography tend to matter.

plawolf said:

It makes zero sense to Saudi Arabia to join what is increasingly looking to be the loosing side of this war.

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The Gulf states will double down regardless, in part due to geopolitical and cultural inertia, kinda like a lot of countries in Latin America think the US is still worth something and still the pinacle of development which causes them to try to orbit towards the US even to the detriment of themselves.

On the other hand, lack of alternative security frameworks and they don't want to be in the shadow of Iran because they are under the impression that they will get their own Hezbollah, regardless of how misguided that notion might be. There is also the whole difference between Sunni's and Shia and the fact that the Arabs have bough into an indian-esque "we supapowa too, saar" and try to play games in the regions they are not qualified for just to end up butting heads with Iran's interests surrounding Israel and Lebanon, become some sort of a self-fulfiling profecy for them they are too stupid to realize.

Which is also why they can double down as much as they want but I doubt it there will be much left of their economies to opose Iran in any meaningful capacity, specially if the US pulls out permanently.

More to the point. They are cowards who want to mantain some semblance of plausible deniability because commiting means giving up the "supapowa" schtick and recognize their status as pawns.

plawolf said:

Keeping the main Iran War thread discussion only is fine and all, but in this day and age of fake news and deliberate misinformation from even the highest levels of government, even official announcements can be highly unreliable or even outright lies. So it’s impossible to make sense of the news without some level of strategic analysis.




It makes zero sense to Saudi Arabia to join what is increasingly looking to be the loosing side of this war. Trump can TACO and run away, they live in the region, and what happens if they join the war on America’s side and America just down tools and runs away?

Some Gulf states like Qatar and Kuwait are already in too deep, so they might double down since they are already beyond the point of no return, but it would be a move of the highest folly for Saudi Arabia to actively jump deeper into this mess.

In fact, I think even Trump’s regime would be working to keep them out of the war more directly even if the Saudis were of the suicidal persuasion. The western economies are already at death’s door with oil and gas supply disruption affecting the Gulf, how much worse will that be if the Saudis jumped in, Iran activates the Houthis and now there’s no oil coming out of the Red Sea either and the Suez Canal is effectively blockaded?

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SA should seriously consider joining an alliance with Pakistan, turkey, and Iran. If they form a military alliance, they can pretty much dictate the Middle East.

USA and Israel will be pissed off. So what? They gonna sanction the SA? Leading to the worst inflation in history? No petroleum dollar means gg to all those Wall Street bankers.

USA Israel strategy is very similar to what the Chinese did to the mongol and jurken. Keep the tribes separated and fight among themselves

The more I think about everything, the more it looks like the US has already permanently lost the regional bases, the petrodollar, and the sanctions regime on Iran.

Which means the least bad option left is to end this war quickly and formalize those losses instead of pretending otherwise.

Because if it keeps dragging on, the combination of global inflation, GCC financial stress, and broader economic shock could wreck the US economy badly enough to trigger a much deeper internal breakdown at home that is brewing.

The petrodollar is already dead in substance.

If the GCC cannot physically sell oil in dollars and funnel that money back into American assets, and is instead being pushed to liquidate them, then the mechanism is already finished.

The bases are already militarily useless, and even any possible reinforcement (hard), during the ongoing war, just becomes more targets.

The sanctions are already hollow, too. And even if some still technically exist, Iran can offset enough of that through the Hormuz toll regime and the leverage it now has over regional flows.

So the US has already suffered a catastrophic and humiliating defeat, the biggest one in history.

The only real choice now is whether it remains in the war and risks full collapse, or formalizes the defeat and tries to salvage the country for a few more years.

And formalizing it would mean openly agreeing to Iranian official demands, thus far:

Reparations, lifting all sanctions, formally admitting they failed, squashing all hopes of "victory", and withdrawing what remains of the bases themselves (forever, even in theory).

Once that happens, the whole world sees that the petrodollar no longer has real force behind it as well, so even this can't be likely preserved.

Once all of that is publicly exposed, it does not get rebuilt ever, either. The GCC starts searching for alternatives, and yuanization accelerates.

Serb said:

The more I think about everything, the more it looks like the US has already permanently lost the regional bases, the petrodollar, and the sanctions regime on Iran.

Which means the least bad option left is to end this war quickly and formalize those losses instead of pretending otherwise.

Because if it keeps dragging on, the combination of global inflation, GCC financial stress, and broader economic shock could wreck the US economy badly enough to trigger a much deeper internal breakdown at home that is brewing.

The petrodollar is already dead in substance.

If the GCC cannot physically sell oil in dollars and funnel that money back into American assets, and is instead being pushed to liquidate them, then the mechanism is already finished.

The bases are already militarily useless, and even any possible reinforcement (hard), during the ongoing war, just becomes more targets.

The sanctions are already hollow, too. And even if some still technically exist, Iran can offset enough of that through the Hormuz toll regime and the leverage it now has over regional flows.

So the US has already suffered a catastrophic and humiliating defeat, the biggest one in history.

The only real choice now is whether it remains in the war and risks full collapse, or formalizes the defeat and tries to salvage the country for a few more years.

And formalizing it would mean openly agreeing to Iranian official demands, thus far:

Reparations, lifting all sanctions, formally admitting they failed, squashing all hopes of "victory", and withdrawing what remains of the bases themselves (forever, even in theory).

Once that happens, the whole world sees that the petrodollar no longer has real force behind it as well, so even this can't be likely preserved.

Once all of that is publicly exposed, it does not get rebuilt ever, either. The GCC starts searching for alternatives, and yuanization accelerates.

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The great question is which kingdom will fall first

2handedswordsman said:

The great question is which kingdom will fall first

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I think Bahrain is the one most at risk (Iran might also retake it soon), and I could also imagine Iraq, under an Iranian umbrella from within, swallowing Kuwait eventually. Prof. Marandi has floated that idea before.

The rest are probably safe, though. It is in Iran’s interest to keep them stable enough to function because stable Gulf monarchies are much more useful as revenue sources through shipping tolls, reparations, and future investment into Iran.

The only way I see them really falling apart is if the US keeps escalating, refuses to back down, and forces Iran into systematically destroying their infrastructure until revolt breaks out from below. But that is not really Iran’s optimal outcome.

Why destroy the very states that could become the easiest source of money for repairing the huge damage done by the US and Israel later?