Who now?
2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis
- Thread starter plawolf
- Start date
Is holding out really bad for Iran?
1. US, Israel and GCC are being pummeled, militarily and economically. This cancel out the damage Iran receives, so the security situation is an even exchange. Both Iran and its enemies are being harmed.
2. Iran is profiting from rising oil price and a toll on the strait passage, that will kick start the Iranian economy, possibly making this war a net profit.
Iran potentially is harming its adversary while making a minor profit.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I’m
That would make sense, if you leave out a certain superpower.
The meme of China doing nothing and winning is just that, a meme. China only wins so much because it works tirelessly behind the scenes.
It was China, not America, that brokered a historic accord between Saudi Arabia and Iran just 3 years ago, when relations between the two were arguably worse than even today.
I have no doubt that Chinese diplomats are working overtime trying to help the Gulf States see sense and reason. And China will be perfectly placed to offer up a viable alternative security arrangement for the Gulf that actually benefits all Gulf members in a fairer and more balanced way. This will be a security structure built on a foundation of peaceful coexistence and mutual respect, as China has always advocated. It will be underpinned not by Chinese troops replacing American ones, but through the sale of genuinely useful weapons with no strings attached that actually works when needed. And China will have Pakistan as its poster child to show the real world benefits of this new model of self reliance and independence.
So there is a viable alternative model. They key question is if the Gulf Leaders have the courage and wisdom to try it.
That would make sense, if you leave out a certain superpower.
The meme of China doing nothing and winning is just that, a meme. China only wins so much because it works tirelessly behind the scenes.
It was China, not America, that brokered a historic accord between Saudi Arabia and Iran just 3 years ago, when relations between the two were arguably worse than even today.
I have no doubt that Chinese diplomats are working overtime trying to help the Gulf States see sense and reason. And China will be perfectly placed to offer up a viable alternative security arrangement for the Gulf that actually benefits all Gulf members in a fairer and more balanced way. This will be a security structure built on a foundation of peaceful coexistence and mutual respect, as China has always advocated. It will be underpinned not by Chinese troops replacing American ones, but through the sale of genuinely useful weapons with no strings attached that actually works when needed. And China will have Pakistan as its poster child to show the real world benefits of this new model of self reliance and independence.
So there is a viable alternative model. They key question is if the Gulf Leaders have the courage and wisdom to try it.
I agree for the most part, but IMO Iran should destroy UAE should the gulf states step up support for Israel. Their best strategy IMO is to "kill the chicken for the monkey to see". The killing needs to be a chicken, not an ant. Destroy the UAE's oil and gas plants, destroy their desalination plants, and for symbolic purposes, destroy the Burj Khalifa. Punishing Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, or Oman don't do much, and taking out SA eliminates a future source of revenue as well as gives Israel more room to maneuver. Take out the UAE, make the Saudis see themselves in Dubai, and the rest of the GCC will also fall in line.
Yeah, and the UAE may already be done for just by inertia, because out of all of them, its economy is the most built on pure vibes and expats.
If this war lasts a few more months, it will likely come out of it gutted, just a skeleton of what it was before, kind of automatically.
Right now, they are in full cope mode, trying to trap capital, fake stability, run risky flights, and keep the illusion alive a little longer.
And as Prof. Marandi pointed out, even trying some marine stunt on Kharg Island or anywhere else would immediately trigger a new wave of strikes on regional energy and maybe other infrastructure as well.
When you strike at the king...
Iran has rejected Trump's Jewish courtiers, Witkoff and Kushner.
It's not yet clear Iran will accept Vice President Dr J D Vance.
Trump can't remove Vance. And Vance has his own power base: Palantir and the techbros. Thiel influenced Vance to convert to Catholicism. Vance's life story and traditional life style including military service resonants with lower- and middle-class America. And Vance was skeptical of Trump's and Netanyahu attack on Iran since last year.
If Iran accepts Vance for negotiations Trump and Netanyahu lose the initiative and control. The military and business communities want an end to this foolishness and will enable Vance to bring it to a quick resolution. And Trump will not be President for the November elections.
Iran has rejected Trump's Jewish courtiers, Witkoff and Kushner.
It's not yet clear Iran will accept Vice President Dr J D Vance.
Trump can't remove Vance. And Vance has his own power base: Palantir and the techbros. Thiel influenced Vance to convert to Catholicism. Vance's life story and traditional life style including military service resonants with lower- and middle-class America. And Vance was skeptical of Trump's and Netanyahu attack on Iran since last year.
If Iran accepts Vance for negotiations Trump and Netanyahu lose the initiative and control. The military and business communities want an end to this foolishness and will enable Vance to bring it to a quick resolution. And Trump will not be President for the November elections.
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what more can they hit that won't result in Iran escalating and hitting them harder ie desalination, LNG infrastructure, power, etc?
this is actually the new mentality and reality that China should be understanding: there are no rules, no limits, the only question is how hard can you hit and what can the enemy really do about it?
Iran decided, fuck it, I don't care about alliances because they're just pieces of paper. Fight if you dare. And so it was revealed that the GCC alliances really were paper when there's a risk of actually being defeated.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
From War news thread
Firstly, they will already have plenty of supplies stashed and hidden all over the islands, and should be bring more across as fast as they could right now. So they should not need to worry about resupply for a little while.
Secondly, it will be very hard and expensive to conduct interdiction operations in the tiny narrow strait between Qeshm and mainland Iran. Any drones and aircraft doing said interdiction will need to fly very close to the Iranian coast, potentially overflying Qeshm itself, which will make them susceptible to ambush attacks by Iranian AA assets.
Thirdly, the strait between Qeshm and the rest of Iran is very narrow, you can probably swim it if you were sufficiently fit, and unlike the English Channel, the waters there are much warmer and calmer, so much more forgiving. Not that it will ever get that desperate for the Iranians, as speed boats and the likes can easily cross that narrow stretch of water in a very short time that the only realistic way to effectively interdict them would require assets already airborne and within strike range to attack as soon as they are detected. Which goes back to point 2 about the costs involved in that.
Finally, if a certain superpower wished it, Iran could immediately find a whole fleet of industrial grade logistics drones at its disposal to both send all the supplies their defenders could ever need in near unstoppable fashion and numbers, as well as undertake casevac of wounded defenders, and if they are suitably brave and desperate, airlifting of reinforcements to the island.
It’s the Americans who will be the ones who will have massive and persistent supply, casevac and reinforcement problems in such a fight.
Firstly, they will already have plenty of supplies stashed and hidden all over the islands, and should be bring more across as fast as they could right now. So they should not need to worry about resupply for a little while.
Secondly, it will be very hard and expensive to conduct interdiction operations in the tiny narrow strait between Qeshm and mainland Iran. Any drones and aircraft doing said interdiction will need to fly very close to the Iranian coast, potentially overflying Qeshm itself, which will make them susceptible to ambush attacks by Iranian AA assets.
Thirdly, the strait between Qeshm and the rest of Iran is very narrow, you can probably swim it if you were sufficiently fit, and unlike the English Channel, the waters there are much warmer and calmer, so much more forgiving. Not that it will ever get that desperate for the Iranians, as speed boats and the likes can easily cross that narrow stretch of water in a very short time that the only realistic way to effectively interdict them would require assets already airborne and within strike range to attack as soon as they are detected. Which goes back to point 2 about the costs involved in that.
Finally, if a certain superpower wished it, Iran could immediately find a whole fleet of industrial grade logistics drones at its disposal to both send all the supplies their defenders could ever need in near unstoppable fashion and numbers, as well as undertake casevac of wounded defenders, and if they are suitably brave and desperate, airlifting of reinforcements to the island.
It’s the Americans who will be the ones who will have massive and persistent supply, casevac and reinforcement problems in such a fight.
Kuwait has maybe 25,000 soldiers. They won't be able to defeat the pmf if Iraq attacks them. A third or so if the population is Shia. How many US soldiers are really left there post evacuation? If they escalate to ground attacks, Kuwait is actually the weakest target and US bases there could be overrun.
How can there possibly be any guarantee of no future aggression against Iran? The only way I see is ironically to put American bases in central Iran. Not to provide protection but to act as hostages. In the event of another attack, 5000 US soldiers would immediately become POWs. That's enough of a deterrent to stop an attack. Plus it would help Iran to normalise relations with the West, which they've been trying to do for many years.