2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis
- Thread starter plawolf
- Start date
plawolf
Lieutenant General
There has been intense diplomatic activity, but I think it’s premature and unrealistic to think those efforts would prevent a resumption of the war because the primary belligerents USIS are conspicuous in their absence in all this.
Instead, it feels like these diplomatic efforts are not really aimed to preventing a resumption of the war, but rather laying the ground work for when it does to further isolate and alienate USIS with the few remaining allies it has in the region, with the priority of the diplomatic efforts aimed at giving the UAE a viable exit strategy instead of going down with USIS when America TACOs out of the region totally and Israel turtle up in its own enclave.
I think the threat China is most keen to guard against is USIS seeing the inevitability of its defeat, moves to poison pile the whole region by turning to the old colonialist playbook of divide and conquer by sowing tensions and conflict between local groups so they become more interested in fighting and killing each other than the true source of their mutual suffering. If USIS can stir up a Arab-Muslim conflict, it will also give them cover to poison pill ME oil supplies by systematically destroying all production and refining infrastructure with a combination of direct and false flag attacks, as they have arguably already started doing even before the ceasefire.
Germans got close; sank 400 ships off the coast of US in the first six months of Operation Paukenschlag.
Yemeni terrain is pretty difficult too, and the maritime border is very porous, across which are war-torn and unstable regions of east Africa.
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This US blockade, as an aggressor, imo will have one of two effects regarding other countries who are affected by it:
- They bend the knee and pay toll to the US (and then Iran), or;
- They group together and become anti-US, possibly leading a combined force to create a corridor for transit.
Also, I suspect some countries will attempt to sneak past the blockade and maybe get caught/sunk by USN, in which case global opinions of US will further deteriorate.
Lastly, there is already an existent network of moving oil through STS via shadow fleets that operate both inside and outside the Persian Gulf. Irani ships load oil from their ports, link with a foreign tanker in the Gulf to transfer oil, or drop oil in Iraq and UAE/Qatar to re-export as Iraqi/Emirati oil. This setup is not affected by blockade. Upto 75m barrels/day were moving under this system. Iraq is a major belligerent in this operation, even while occupied by US, while the gulf Arabs have plenty of corrupt non-state actors facilitating these operations.
Lol......blockade as it the solution is paying toll to US? to Iran? lol....
There are so many, so so many ways to retaliate against these delusional group of people
Paying what toll as if it's a must?
China, can stop supplying basically any services, materials, food and products to any of such recalcitrant countries. Oh, you block my 1 oil tanker....who much is that? 100 million? Easy, I cut 100 million worth of things you want or stop buying your product. Energy? easy burn coal, just dig more, asked the Russian to supply more gas, digs more wells, get it from Australia, Kazahkstans, use the longer Saudi route, take it slow...don't worry, nobody is dying anyway...switch off your Beidou signals, stop selling you jet engines blades, batteries and chemicals....whatever
Take a look at this exchange rate 1 usd vs 6.82 yuan. If tomorrow suddenly US dollars are dumped and 1 usd exchange for 4.5 yuan. China already consider the biggest economy in the world on nominal GDP. These currencies exchange are bullshit anyway. Base on PPP China already far surpassed US economy. The fear of dollar tied to oil, is also the fear of currencies exchange...the fear of people dumping dollar overnight...immediately dollar become worthless and US economy will suddenly shrinked for no good reason...
Every countries economy are shrinking, expanding each day base on their currency fluctuation. If 1 USD change to 200 yen (159 now), Japan economy size turns to shit overnight, irregardles the nonsense they grew 1%, 2% GDP each year. That's why each country must die to protect their currencies from drastic valuation up or down and Japan is holding 1 Trillion dollar treasury to be dump if they are forced to the wall.....
GDP Comparison: China vs. U.S. at Variable Exchange Rates
There are so many, so so many ways to retaliate against these delusional group of people
Paying what toll as if it's a must?
China, can stop supplying basically any services, materials, food and products to any of such recalcitrant countries. Oh, you block my 1 oil tanker....who much is that? 100 million? Easy, I cut 100 million worth of things you want or stop buying your product. Energy? easy burn coal, just dig more, asked the Russian to supply more gas, digs more wells, get it from Australia, Kazahkstans, use the longer Saudi route, take it slow...don't worry, nobody is dying anyway...switch off your Beidou signals, stop selling you jet engines blades, batteries and chemicals....whatever
Take a look at this exchange rate 1 usd vs 6.82 yuan. If tomorrow suddenly US dollars are dumped and 1 usd exchange for 4.5 yuan. China already consider the biggest economy in the world on nominal GDP. These currencies exchange are bullshit anyway. Base on PPP China already far surpassed US economy. The fear of dollar tied to oil, is also the fear of currencies exchange...the fear of people dumping dollar overnight...immediately dollar become worthless and US economy will suddenly shrinked for no good reason...
Every countries economy are shrinking, expanding each day base on their currency fluctuation. If 1 USD change to 200 yen (159 now), Japan economy size turns to shit overnight, irregardles the nonsense they grew 1%, 2% GDP each year. That's why each country must die to protect their currencies from drastic valuation up or down and Japan is holding 1 Trillion dollar treasury to be dump if they are forced to the wall.....
GDP Comparison: China vs. U.S. at Variable Exchange Rates
| Scenario: 1 USD to | China GDP (Trillion USD) | US GDP (Trillion USD) | China 's Size vs. US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Rate: 6.82 ¥ | $21.44 | $32.38 | ~66.2% |
| Previous Target: 6.00 ¥ | $24.37 | $32.38 | ~75.3% |
| New Target: 5.50 ¥ | $26.58 | $32.38 | ~82.1% |
| New Target: 5.00 ¥ | $29.24 | $32.38 | ~90.3% |
| Final Target: 4.50 ¥ | $32.49 | $32.38 | 100.3% (Surpass) |
I am quite surprised that peace between them is on the horizon. They seem to likely sign a memorandum of understanding, extend the ceasefire till work out the details.
Most likely sanction relief and similar deal from obama years.
Trump will go home and announce victory and american exceptionalism to any critical thinking will believe it that Trump did the impossible of opening the strait which he closed
Most likely sanction relief and similar deal from obama years.
Trump will go home and announce victory and american exceptionalism to any critical thinking will believe it that Trump did the impossible of opening the strait which he closed
How much did this farce cost the US?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
The biggest price paid is perhaps one they have not even realised yet, the petrodollar, which has been a cornerstone of American wealth and prosperity since the end of WWII.
If Trump really TACOs like this, there is a good chance the gulf states simply won’t allow them back and pivot hard towards China.
American military power and protection was what they thought they were buying with all that wealth gifted to America for generations. If America literally proves itself to be a paper tiger that even Iran could humble, and when the shit hit the fan, all those expensive and highly unpopular US bases on their soil not only didn’t offer them any credible defence, but actually brought the war to their homes and all the Americans did was run away from their bases and hide in hotels which cause them to get bombed as well, would it be any wonder if the Gulf states seriously asked themselves what the actual fuck they were paying for all this time?
Pakistan can already attest from first hand combat experience that Chinese weapons can defeat the best European weapons. So with the kind of wealth the Gulf states have at their disposal, they can afford to buy a credible and world leading military of their own without any strings attached or limitations post purchase. That is the alternative security arrangement China is offering. Not just changing the colour of the flags on the foreign military bases on their soil, but given them back the sovereignty they didn’t realise they sold to the Americans.
If they can’t lower themselves to fight, or don’t trust their own military enough, they can always expand their existing arrangements with Pakistan where the gulf states buy the hardware while the Pakistanis operate them. The only chance would be buying Chinese weapons over western ones.
If I understand @pmc and some others on this forum correctly, the Arabs have ultimate soft power and strategic control of the world by their royal families. Based on that as the core premise, I can only conclude that the war ended this way because the Arabs and royals were aiming for this as the outcome. The death of the petrodollar, birth of the petroyuan, expulsion of US military presence from West Asia, and buy-in to the new Chinese security paradigm for the region, with Pakistan as the lead operator, mediator, and legitimator. As an improvement over the previous American architecture, this new architecture has an Islamic Republic (Pakistan) taking the lead or playing the key role since it would be easier for the Muslims of the region to accept than a new foreign guarantor in the form of Chinese people.
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I hope this forces the naysayers to challenge their assumptions. If Iran can eke out what can be described as a costly strategic victory against the US, what can peer opponents do to the US?