2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Scenario in broad brushstrokes:

The American AI bubble pops. America's financialized economy spreads the contagion to other sectors weakened by private equity, crypto, etc and overseas to Europe just like the 2008 GFC. Except this time the rescue isn't coming. The US turns inward to heal its wounds: the Middle East is lost to Iran. The EU turns inwards to heal its wounds: Ukraine is lost to Russia. Elon Musk's empire is tottering. China offers a $2T rescue: Tesla, xAI, SpaceX and StarLink. Tesla and xAI would be gracefully wound down and closed. SpaceX and StarLink would continue under Chinese ownership but US citizen operations to comply with expected US government restrictions (StarShield would be spun off to US government operation and perhaps even ownership). And the world would be a better place...

No bailout again this time.

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China is most certainly not going to gift them the $2T hyperinflated price tag, especially since China has perfectly competitive if not outright superior domestic alternatives already.

Even if the Americans agree to sell core technologies, what assurances can you offer China that they won’t immediately rip up the deal as soon as they got what they wanted, like they have done so many times already?

China will instead move to offer a full spectrum alternative to the dying western model. Countries and economies can stick with the existing western world order and die with them, or they can switch to China’s new model to share in the prosperity. This is another reason why China is being so incredibly restrained to not answer the endless western sponsored provocations with deadly military action - China’s alternative world order will look far less appealing if China is also embroiled in armed conflict.

This is also a reason the transition time may be one of peak risk and danger for China, as the dying American empire pulls out all the stops trying to goad China into a proxy war to tarnish its offering in a desperate attempt to try to stop the global south from jumping ship en mass. For that it will be more than happy to sacrifice every single Philippino life, and probably Korea and Japan as well if needed. Ironically Taiwan will probably be safe, as even America is not delusional enough any more to think anything short of full commitment from themselves would make any impact there, so if they are not willing and able to fight China directly themselves, Taiwan is the one place they can’t start shit.
 

AlexYe

Senior Member
Registered Member
No wonder they get along so well with the Americans; this is a micro-version of the Mayflower sailors getting saved by the Native Americans in their first winter only to come back for genocide and land-robbing.
What israel is doing is fundamentally no different from what americans did do natives, stole their land, their resources/riches, broke treaties 100's of times, drove them away into smaller and smaller portions then called them 'reservations'
Well israel doesnt even wanna do reservations they want to exterminate completely.
 

AlexYe

Senior Member
Registered Member
No bailout again this time.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China is most certainly not going to gift them the $2T hyperinflated price tag, especially since China has perfectly competitive if not outright superior domestic alternatives already.

Even if the Americans agree to sell core technologies, what assurances can you offer China that they won’t immediately rip up the deal as soon as they got what they wanted, like they have done so many times already?

China will instead move to offer a full spectrum alternative to the dying western model. Countries and economies can stick with the existing western world order and die with them, or they can switch to China’s new model to share in the prosperity. This is another reason why China is being so incredibly restrained to not answer the endless western sponsored provocations with deadly military action - China’s alternative world order will look far less appealing if China is also embroiled in armed conflict.

This is also a reason the transition time may be one of peak risk and danger for China, as the dying American empire pulls out all the stops trying to goad China into a proxy war to tarnish its offering in a desperate attempt to try to stop the global south from jumping ship en mass. For that it will be more than happy to sacrifice every single Philippino life, and probably Korea and Japan as well if needed. Ironically Taiwan will probably be safe, as even America is not delusional enough any more to think anything short of full commitment from themselves would make any impact there, so if they are not willing and able to fight China directly themselves, Taiwan is the one place they can’t start shit.
US will do bailout on its and it has already started.
Screenshot (49390).png
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Trump is appointing Heritage foundation guy as incharge of the Federal Research Grant commission, it handles $1 trillion of grants in all fields, medicine to tech to sciences.
In that they are specifically proposing $200 bn toward just the ai, killing many other science fields.
 
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