plawolf
Lieutenant General
Scenario in broad brushstrokes:
The American AI bubble pops. America's financialized economy spreads the contagion to other sectors weakened by private equity, crypto, etc and overseas to Europe just like the 2008 GFC. Except this time the rescue isn't coming. The US turns inward to heal its wounds: the Middle East is lost to Iran. The EU turns inwards to heal its wounds: Ukraine is lost to Russia. Elon Musk's empire is tottering. China offers a $2T rescue: Tesla, xAI, SpaceX and StarLink. Tesla and xAI would be gracefully wound down and closed. SpaceX and StarLink would continue under Chinese ownership but US citizen operations to comply with expected US government restrictions (StarShield would be spun off to US government operation and perhaps even ownership). And the world would be a better place...
No bailout again this time.
China is most certainly not going to gift them the $2T hyperinflated price tag, especially since China has perfectly competitive if not outright superior domestic alternatives already.
Even if the Americans agree to sell core technologies, what assurances can you offer China that they won’t immediately rip up the deal as soon as they got what they wanted, like they have done so many times already?
China will instead move to offer a full spectrum alternative to the dying western model. Countries and economies can stick with the existing western world order and die with them, or they can switch to China’s new model to share in the prosperity. This is another reason why China is being so incredibly restrained to not answer the endless western sponsored provocations with deadly military action - China’s alternative world order will look far less appealing if China is also embroiled in armed conflict.
This is also a reason the transition time may be one of peak risk and danger for China, as the dying American empire pulls out all the stops trying to goad China into a proxy war to tarnish its offering in a desperate attempt to try to stop the global south from jumping ship en mass. For that it will be more than happy to sacrifice every single Philippino life, and probably Korea and Japan as well if needed. Ironically Taiwan will probably be safe, as even America is not delusional enough any more to think anything short of full commitment from themselves would make any impact there, so if they are not willing and able to fight China directly themselves, Taiwan is the one place they can’t start shit.
