2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Major
plawolf said:
The biggest price paid is perhaps one they have not even realised yet, the petrodollar, which has been a cornerstone of American wealth and prosperity since the end of WWII.

If Trump really TACOs like this, there is a good chance the gulf states simply won’t allow them back and pivot hard towards China.

American military power and protection was what they thought they were buying with all that wealth gifted to America for generations. If America literally proves itself to be a paper tiger that even Iran could humble, and when the shit hit the fan, all those expensive and highly unpopular US bases on their soil not only didn’t offer them any credible defence, but actually brought the war to their homes and all the Americans did was run away from their bases and hide in hotels which cause them to get bombed as well, would it be any wonder if the Gulf states seriously asked themselves what the actual fuck they were paying for all this time?

Pakistan can already attest from first hand combat experience that Chinese weapons can defeat the best European weapons. So with the kind of wealth the Gulf states have at their disposal, they can afford to buy a credible and world leading military of their own without any strings attached or limitations post purchase. That is the alternative security arrangement China is offering. Not just changing the colour of the flags on the foreign military bases on their soil, but given them back the sovereignty they didn’t realise they sold to the Americans.

If they can’t lower themselves to fight, or don’t trust their own military enough, they can always expand their existing arrangements with Pakistan where the gulf states buy the hardware while the Pakistanis operate them. The only chance would be buying Chinese weapons over western ones.
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The GCC elites prioritizes maintaining their grip on power and preserving their wealth. Overwhelming majority of their wealth is already tied to US financial markets and the US dollar. The only potential security threat to them is Israel, and that problem is better solved by aligning US interests to their own rather than investing in a credible defense capability. Arab armies are notoriously ineffective at actual fighting, while on the other hand have enjoyed much more success in staging coups. Outsourcing defense to Pakistan is something they have been doing for years. While they may allow countries to pay in RMB for oil - but at the end of the day they are going to be exchanging most of that RMB for dollars to invest back in US financial markets.
 
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NorthKimBestKim

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bebops said:
The build up of troops at mideast is increasing more and more. US doesn't sent all those troops without an objective. They are prepared to do something with it. Therefore I have doubt about the talk or negotiation being successful this week.
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Yeah, I agree. They are not there for nothing.

New update just a few hours ago:

So "Bush" carrier is on its way. It's taking a bit longer to arrive since it had to sail past South Africa and not through Suez. But the point is, it looks like Mango Benito will have 3 super carriers against Iran: Bush, Ford and Lincoln.

Boxer is set to arrive by the end of April. Tripoli is already there, so that will be total of 2 LHA / LHD.

Several ships with mine-clearing capabilities are also on their way.

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Nothing points towards any "peace". The Empire continues to kill, attack or even invade. They never let go unless someone beats the fvck out of Imperial forces. And Iran cannot do it alone.
 
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protonme18

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bebops said:
The build up of troops at mideast is increasing more and more. US doesn't sent all those troops without an objective. They are prepared to do something with it. Therefore I have doubt about the talk or negotiation being successful this week.
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Projected Troop Requirements
Analysts suggest that a ground invasion of Iran would be significantly more demanding than the invasion of Iraq due to Iran's larger population (90 million) and its vast, difficult terrain.
  • Initial Estimates for Success: While the 2003 Iraq invasion began with roughly 300,000 troops, analysts predict that a "real" ground campaign for a country like Iran—which is four times larger than Iraq—would require a substantially larger force.
  • Insufficiency of Current Levels: A former Army officer noted that a force of 10,000 to 50,000 troops (the current regional deployment) would only be sufficient for minor objectives, such as seizing Kharg Island or controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Total Force Projection: Experts have historically suggested that a full-scale occupation could require upwards of 500,000 to 1,000,000 personnel to maintain control, though current US strategy under President Trump has prioritized naval blockades and air infrastructure strikes over ground troop commitments
 
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protonme18

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NorthKimBestKim said:
Nothing points towards any "peace". The Empire continues to kill, attack or even invade. They never let go unless someone beats the fvck out of Imperial forces. And Iran cannot do it alone.
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This I agree, you have to beat the bully thoroughly so they fear coming back. What Iranians did earlier was give the bully a bloody nose only. The cost imposed on the aggressor/s probably around tens of billions only. This is nothing for militarily and it will take time to replenish losses, eventually. What's really stopping or huge factors for ceasefire, is the Iranian controls of the Straits of Hormuz. This impost huge cost on GCCs which have huge deals with the Americans and their interests, much larger then losses military, bases (important but not critical). Another factor is Tel Aviv taking constant beating from Iranian missiles with penetration rate reach staggering over 80%, it was very low interceptors at that moment and they need a desperate restock.

I can tell you, Pentagon and IDF are busy churning out senarios and plans, using Palantir or whatever AI model it is to find a route to victory. The ceasefire, back and forth or whatever, probably are the AI recommendations this course was best action, probably acting at the moment on AI script/suggestions however impossible it is.

Just like playing Chess using AI, you will see 2 grandmasters competing in Chess, and the audiences, commentators will watch AI stockfish computer program will deduce and propose sometimes that seems a very illogical moves, but that moves give the highest advantages to black or white pieces. Both Grandmasters which are human, would never make such a move but the AI says this is greatest advantages to Black or to White pieces

I'm telling you guys. This Computer is now LIVE and being used by the military planners. Human logics of discussion on ceasefire, negotiation proposal , method are all moot point as Pentagon/IDF are using the recommendation from the AI system.

This explain the strike order by the AI to finish of Khameinei....with whatever the dealings, discussions, diplomacies nonsense ongoing thought of by human brains......the HUGE cloud base AI system in the military, suddenly stirs up and give the recommendation "STRIKE NOW!!!".....and the Pentagon/IDF just execute it. That's why many NATO members and traditional allies caught off guard....is not that the US adminstration doesn't want to inform them about it or coordinate but the AI brain is telling the Pentagon planners, this is the moment. (probably one parameter feed to the AI is element of surprise consideration)

Similarly, whatever ceasefire and negotiation tactic employed now....99% is AI recommendations strategy to American. It list all out the delay, genuine, fake, real or not proposals with clear parameters given to the AI systems.

I hope the Iranians, have backup and large backers behind also using AI (their own stockfish model) proposing to them each counterplay in negotiation.

Is like 2 Grandmasters playing chess, looking at their own computers.....Magnus using AI Palantir model, Ding Liren using Deep seek AI giving porposals...it's not them actual their own brain anymore...it's AI negotiating with AI at the moment.
 
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NorthKimBestKim

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nimitz123 said:
Are there any more information on the current status of USS George HW Bush CSG and USS Boxer MEU ?
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I literally posted about that. It says in the link I posted that Bush carrier group will come to the region. It is on its way. Same goes for Boxer. Boxer will be there by the end of April, it says.

So basically: Bush + Lincoln + Ford + Boxer + Tripoli + at least 15 or more Arleigh Burkes + tankers and transport aircraft + 250 attack fighters (possibly more) + bombers.

It doesn't look good for Iran. Imperial Force never gives up. They smashed Iraq in 1991. Then starving it with sanctions throughtout 1990s, before the country was finished off in 2003.

Libya, the same: First bombing in 1986, then 2011.

Syria, the same: Start proxy war from 2011 - 2012, then brutal sanctions, then Tomahawk attacks from Trump in 2017 and 2018, then Syria could not take the sanctions and proxy war any more - collapse in December 2024.

Same strategy is applied to Iran. There are always "several rounds", with spicy, murdering sanctions as extra "spice".
 
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