What ceasefire.....just military asking the political side for 2 weeks for safe deliveries of the munition to Haifa and GCC. I would say, any of the supply ships detected that came, just used anti-ship, drones or ballistic missiles to cut it off. That's the Russian mistake, allow Ukraine Odesa port to ship in munitions to cause havoc in their own line/land under pretext of grain agreement, ceasefire, diplomacy and all that nonsense. It's delivery of drone parts, materials, guidance, compound....that wipe out their black sea fleet in Crimea. Just follow war war while jaw jaw.....ceasefire perhaps to certain targets like hospitals but the rest carry on, you don't want Israel to repair their docks in Haifa to receive munitions, you don't want GCC to bring in new Radar systems, you don't want IDF still entering Lebanon therefore you create a no go buffer zone inside Israel itself. Also up your production of drones, missiles, learn what went wrong, what went right and replan/retool the war plan. Take example from Kursk incursion, where everything seems calm but breakthru of Ukraine forces into Kursk after weeks/months planning. Keep an eye on the North, the Kurds, within probably 10,000 US/IDF special troops built up within the Kurds Guerilla....operation Decaptiate Tehran probably in the plan....increase the vigilance of the North, prepare ambushed on the South.....plant your ground intel, gets the satellites up, ready stockpiles of anti-ship missiles, distribute more shoulder pad launchers for incoming heli threats. Train more FPV drones operators and so on.....the war goals remains the same. No permission for any US bases in GCC, they can stay in Israel if they want and if any bombs start flying again
2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis
- Thread starter plawolf
- Start date
FriedRiceNSpice
Major
How did Zhu BaJie get a job at the White House?
This is most likely. Iran also needs to lick their wounds.
After more than 4 weeks of mosaic leadership. It might be time to resupply and reorg. I wouldn't be surprised that some units are critically out of missiles. Create new priority list of targets. Officially promoting people to empty leadership roles. Get all supplies it can from PRC which is way faster than US can rearm.
I just hope they aren't dumb enough to have most of their leaders sitting one room again. At least they seem to learn something when they elected the new Ayatollah over the internet instead of in person.
If I am Iran, this time, I will be the one to break the ceasefire and attack first instead of waiting for the first blow. Is not like they can lose any more international support.
I am currently 50/50 if this peace will settle.
Reasons it will settle:
Trump is TACO, he knows he can't win this.
He might just declare victory and leave this ceasefire and strait toll control to Iran mess to someone else to fix and cause the next problem like Cuba which will distract the domestic and international audience. There are genuine idiots online still parroting how Iran doesn't have a navy/airforce so they won. Americans are dumb.
JD Vance is leading the negotiation in Pakistan and he is part of the anti-war faction in the inner party.
Some GCC lobbying
Reasons it won't settle
Israel is seething. They can create a false flag attack. They seem to be surprised by this peace deal.
Lebanon issue and Hezbollah are uncontrollable, there is a chance that tmw that the fighting reignites by rogue commanders.
Other GCC are very pissed like Bahrain and UAE, would lobby to finish this instead of always being in the fear of Iran.
Iran could have rogue commanders firing under their mosaic command structure.
US assets and carriers are prime to attack again with new carriers rotating in, but where the heck will they even land?
Two weeks is not necessary too much time for much, the US cannot magically manufacture all these assets in two weeks BUT it could give the US time to disarm Europa and Asia and transfer those weapons to the Middle East and to amass troops there.
But in the flip side it could give Iran more time to import military tech and drones from Russia and China and centralize again for planning.
Not sure where did I read, Trump currently incapacitated and lying in the hospital for 3 days. Some of that tweeting handle probably done by Susie Wiles perhaps or maybe Baron Trump that tweet out. There's huge disparity and inconsistency on the wording/prose and flow of the statements of the tweet compare to typical Trump....probably knowing the immense pressure they are facing right now. Perhaps how to tell the American Audience of the losses and death of the soldiers and prep/condition the American Audience to accept that Trump is "winning" in "defeat".....the polls not looking good and midterm will be a massacre....
The commanders that excel in their war objectives are promoted. This is where the Gen Z IRGC shines, those old farts that talks about peace peace peace, I think most have fallen after eating IDF munition and US bombs. Your mind is not about peace anymore, is how you can blows up the power plant of the enemies, decapitate their leadership, destroyed their industrial base. The more you excel in using the available war tools to do that, you are promoted a rank. Do it in discipline and orderly manner. The diplomats corp will do their jobs getting the best deals, the war generals provide the available capacity in order to realize that deal. I think the blemish I see so far performance of the IRGC is the failure to capture alive hostages of the landing plan...they reacted to slow or the trap layyed is slow to dealt with. That region commander in charge that area probably waited to long or have the wrong intel or executed the wrong strategy...a live hostage also works better for the diplomatic corp to get extra more better deal. Anyway, all these can be learn. Look at Russian Ukraine war, prisoner exchanges also is a form of diplomatic bargaining chips that can be used in discussions.....
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
This does make me feel like something good may be happening. If Iran decided this themselves, I'm worried they just won the Fell-for-it-Again Award. But if China told them to pipe down for 2 weeks, especially after we vetoed the Open Hormuz motion at the UN, I think we're gonna use that time to give them something nice and that means Chinese satellites will warn them when the US looks poised to display its dishonesty again.
And although I am not in favor of the ceasefire without more privileged knowledge, I have noted that America's 15 point plan that was called maximalist by Iran was rejected while Iran's 10 point plan which was called maximalist by the US has become the working draft. This does look like the US backed down instead of Iran. I wouldn't have even submitted terms for negotiation if I was Iran but once you have, and they accept them, it's kinda hard to say no cus that makes you look like a clown slapping yourself.
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This statement by the Iranian MFA places Iran in a very good position. If the US and Israel fully observe the ceasefire it provides Iran quiet time to lick its wounds and return to some form of normal life. It flatters Trump by recognizing the 15-point plan but doesn't commit to it. And it states that Trump has accepted Iran's 10-point plan as a basis of negotiations.
Regarding passage through the Strait of Hormuz Iran still retains "will be possible" control as do the insurance companies for those ships. The scope of those "technical limitations" is not defined and can be adjusted ad hoc by Iran to accommodate a range of scenarios and conditions.
If Trump thinks his two ARGs will transit into the Persian Gulf he is mistaken. His replenishment operations going to be limited to Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, both of whom's native and foreign populations are distinctly unhappy about the disruption in their comfortable lives. Sustaining overseas military actions is expensive, taking a toll on men and machines. And summer is coming soon.
I rate the Iranian statement as a diplomatic masterwork being the best achievable under difficult external and internal circumstances. I wish them well. However I expect Israel to be the spoiler of the ceasefire and that the Iranians will operate in anticipation of such spoilage.
Regarding passage through the Strait of Hormuz Iran still retains "will be possible" control as do the insurance companies for those ships. The scope of those "technical limitations" is not defined and can be adjusted ad hoc by Iran to accommodate a range of scenarios and conditions.
If Trump thinks his two ARGs will transit into the Persian Gulf he is mistaken. His replenishment operations going to be limited to Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, both of whom's native and foreign populations are distinctly unhappy about the disruption in their comfortable lives. Sustaining overseas military actions is expensive, taking a toll on men and machines. And summer is coming soon.
I rate the Iranian statement as a diplomatic masterwork being the best achievable under difficult external and internal circumstances. I wish them well. However I expect Israel to be the spoiler of the ceasefire and that the Iranians will operate in anticipation of such spoilage.
One way to frame the current decision to stand down is that the cost of escalation from here (attacks on oil and gas infrastructure on both sides) is simply prohibitively high (for IRGC and for GCC, oil and gas is their lifeline; for Trump/US - an 'off ramp' to getting absolutely destroyed in Midterms).
Therefore regardless of the disagreements that still exist from the maximalist positions of both Iran/US they cannot tolerate the destruction of oil infrastructure where you end some 20mln barrels of production for 2-3 years, which is where this was headed very soon. (Neither could China nor the rest of the world, tbh)
What you might end up with is a low intensity warfare (like Kinmen shellings) where they keep some sort of fighting but keep the Strait open (with fee paid to Iran in actuality but not recognized by the US).
Therefore regardless of the disagreements that still exist from the maximalist positions of both Iran/US they cannot tolerate the destruction of oil infrastructure where you end some 20mln barrels of production for 2-3 years, which is where this was headed very soon. (Neither could China nor the rest of the world, tbh)
What you might end up with is a low intensity warfare (like Kinmen shellings) where they keep some sort of fighting but keep the Strait open (with fee paid to Iran in actuality but not recognized by the US).
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