2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

crazyinsane105

Junior Member
VIP Professional
You are talking about one of the most unpopular regimes (among its domestic population) in the world here. The Iranian government enjoys far less domestic support than say Gadaffi, and less than Saddam and Assad.
Saddam was very badly hated by Iraqis. One major reason he was found in a spider hole and no major insurgent group even cared for his capture.
 

PLAwatcher12

Junior Member
Registered Member
1. Israeli ministry of defense, Mossad HQ, Weizmann Institute of Science along with multiple air bases and refineries have been hit. Are there any targets more high value than these? You either prevent your HVT from being hit or you don't. There's no "protected a lot more," you either protect (avoid getting hit) or you don't.
2. Cost of multiple low end missiles from Iran is several times lower than an Israeli fighter sortie using high end fighters needing tank support firing off far more expensive stand off missiles.
4. An Israeli interceptor missile is a larger investment of resources than a basic Iranian BM. And multiple interceptor are fired for each incoming BM.
3. Despite attempting the use of multiple interceptor per missile, Israel has not shown an ability to intercept a single hypersonic missile.
They are, but it takes Iran longer to hit them, compared to isreal who just takes on hit
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
You are talking about one of the most unpopular regimes (among its domestic population) in the world here. The Iranian government enjoys far less domestic support than say Gadaffi, and less than Saddam and Assad. Not only is the regime extremely unpopular domestically, internationally nobody considers the Iranians a reliable partner, even other powers that are in opposition to the US. The question is whether the current regime will be replaced by a pro-Western liberal one or an anti-Western nationalist one. One thing that cannot be denied is that pro-Western sentiment has always held sway over a large proportion of the Iranian population.
Funny enough the Iranian government is the only one among them that came to power in a popular revolution and has elections of any kind.
 

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
Trump threatening to assassinate the supreme leader. MAGA cannon fodder is ready.


If what he said is true, then his big mouth babbling is wasting a crucial tactical opportunity (for US). Fking moron king orange:rolleyes:

Trump is threatening Supreme Leader Khamenei with "a good time" and he doesn't even know it. :D

The tragedy, if not irony of Trump's death threat against Khamenei is that from the perspective of a Shiite cleric who possesses deep faith in the prevailing monotheistic god of Abrahamic religious traditions, and who has devoted most of his life to serving said god — which some of us may refer to as Allah, even though Muslims have 99 names for Him — there is no honor greater or end nobler than martyrdom.

Welp I think they are gonna get involved within 48 hours. Real question is if Trump is dumb enough to commit ground troops…


my moneys on yes. Question is if ground forces will be involved…

Is very unlikely that regime change is going to happen unless the US put boots on the ground. What is going to happen is Asymmetrical warfare and perpetual war with Iran. The US could be basically stuck in the Middle East for a long time. The end of the Asia Pivot.

The US will need months, if not a year+, as well as the activation of large numbers of reservists, perhaps even from the IRR, to stage a "proper" ground invasion of Iran. We should all probably be able to agree that Trump has no appetite or patience for such lengthy complications, and that the Israel Lobby isn't looking to wait for the White House to act next year when Iranian missiles are penetrating Israeli air defenses as we speak.

Someone has probably also convinced Trump that a significant deployment of ground troops will be unnecessary for subduing Iran, as that's exactly something Trump will want to hear before granting his buy-in for such a hot war.

Therefore, we are not going to see multiple BCTs and MEUs blitzkrieg into Iran, at least not this turn, especially as there currently isn't even an American ally in the neighborhood that will let hundreds of thousands of American troops and contractors assemble on their territory to stage such a theoretical ground invasion.

What Trump is most likely hoping for is something akin to the air war NATO waged against Serbia in 1999 that more or less formalized the independence of Kosovo, and toppled the Milosevic government resulting in his subsequent extradition to the Hague; or the 2011 conflict where domestic rebels aided by Western air strikes and SOF removed Gaddafi from power, and which also descended Libya into a civil war and anarchy that it has yet to recover from.

TBF, we probably should acknowledge that there is a significant chance that a limited number of US military personnel — operating under non-official cover and perhaps even posing as third country nationals — are already conducting what are known as advanced force operations inside Iran. Talking guys and girls managed by programs like DASR, so units and operations rarely, if at all explicitly acknowledged during public discourse.

Though depending on the targets that CENTCOM will want to prioritize kinetic effects against, the US might be able to fully or partially rely on Israeli operatives and assets — who are generally considered more experienced than their American counterparts at running operations in certain denied areas like Iran — for AFO missions out there, much of which will likely be CTR for triggering kinetic strikes assuming the upcoming party stays air centric.

Lastly, there is a not insignificant chance that certain units from JSOC or even "white SOF" elements like the 5th and 10th SFGs' Critical Threats Advisory Companies — which are known for developing specialized capabilities like breeching and raiding UGFs — will conduct direct action operations against Iranian ground targets of the highest priority.
 
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Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
I hope the EU enjoys the 5 million Iranian refugees coming their way thanks to Israel.

Iran has four times as many people as Syria and the biggest population in southwest Asia. There's never been an Iranian refugee wave due to Iran's middle-income status.

If Israel gets its way, that will soon end.
At least these Shah loving people that are living in the west (Canada, U.S.) will be ecstatic that their country is going to be free from the Ayatollah loving Iranians.

What little did they know or realize is that half of the Iranians don't have love or any fond memories from the rule of the equally despotic Shah.

Their country is going to be in ruins much like Libya, Syria that came before them and then only they'll realize what fools they have been all these times. But by the time the realization sets in, it's terribly too late for them. What bloody fools!!
 

delfer

New Member
Registered Member
Trump is threatening Supreme Leader Khamenei with "a good time" and he doesn't even know it. :D

The tragedy, if not irony of Trump's death threat against Khamenei is that from the perspective of a Shiite cleric who possesses deep faith in the prevailing monotheistic god of Abrahamic religious traditions, and who has devoted most of his life to serving said god — which some of us may refer to as Allah, even though Muslims have 99 names for Him — there is no honor greater or end nobler than martyrdom.







The US will need months, if not a year+, as well as the activation of reservists to stage a "proper" ground invasion of Iran.

Someone has probably also convinced Trump that a significant deployment of ground troops will be unnecessary for subduing Iran, as that's exactly something Trump will want to hear before granting buy-in for a hot war against Iran.

We are not going to see multiple BCTs and MEUs blitzkrieg into Iran, at least not this turn, especially as there currently isn't even an American ally in the neighborhood that will let hundreds of thousands of American troops and contractors assemble on their territory to stage such a theoretical ground invasion.

What Trump is most likely hoping for is something akin to the air war NATO waged against Serbia in 1999 that more or less formalized the independence of Kosovo, and toppled the Milosevic government resulting in his subsequent extradition to the Hague; or the 2011 conflict where domestic rebels aided by Western air strikes and SOF removed Gaddafi from power, and which also sent the country into a civil war and anarchy that it has yet to recover from.

TBF, we probably should acknowledge that there is a significant chance that a limited number of US military personnel — operating under non-official cover and perhaps even posing as third country nationals — are already conducting what are known as advanced force operations inside Iran. Talking guys and girls managed by programs like DASR, so units and operations rarely, if at all explicitly acknowledged during public discourse.

Though depending on the targets that CENTCOM will want to prioritize kinetic effects against, the US might be able to fully or partially rely on Israeli operatives and assets — who are generally considered more experienced than their American counterparts at running operations in certain denied areas like Iran — for AFO missions out there, much of which will likely be CTR for triggering kinetic strikes assuming the upcoming party stays air centric.

Lastly, there is a not insignificant chance that certain units from JSOC or even "white SOF" elements like the 5th and 10th SFGs' Critical Threats Advisory Companies — which are known for developing specialized capabilities like breeching and raiding UGFs — will conduct direct action operations against Iranian ground targets of the highest priority.
Indeed, just as with Desert Storm, it takes months to organize a proper invasion force, but every day that goes by is another day for Iran to grow stronger and more consolidated.

It gives them time to weed out infiltrators and saboteurs, solidify public support, purge military leadership that is either incompetent and/or not completely on their side, secure support from allies, as well as shift to a war economy and fully mobilize.

Either Iran collapses now or within the next few weeks, or we are going to potentially be dealing with an entirely different beast by the time the US is fully prepared to invade.
 
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