2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Israel won't stop. They are going for regime change. Khamenei is only alive by the grace of Trump.
Trump is bullshitting as usual. They sent drones with explosives to his residence in Iran. They killed one of the Supreme Leader's advisors. The Supreme Leader didn't die because he wasn't there.
 

delfer

New Member
Registered Member
In Afghanistan it was exactly that. The US backed puppet government was the conventional force and once it lost the main supporting pillar, it folded up pretty fast. As the conventional force, things are different than if you are a decentralized guerilla force.

Iran is a proper organized thing so we have to treat it that way.
Yes, that’s one of the problems. Too centralized of a command structure, and you run into big problems. Look at Ukraine and how much freedom their command has to act independently.

But I think that, ironically, with more and more Israeli strikes, the leadership structure may potentially loosen up (hopefully) and allow for more freedom of action and flexibility. Or maybe not. Who knows.
 

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
Its funny to see people here oscillate between depression during daytime, when Israel attacks vs joy at night time when Iran attacks.

We have seen massive amount of Iranian missiles getting through in Israel. So, it's pretty obvious they have hit significant targets inside Israel too.

So I don't understand the complaint really. What is that you guys want. Yes, Iran had intelligence failures which has cost them a lot. But they also have huge strategic depth and hit they can swallow.

Soviet Union also blunder in the beginning of ww2 and they lost millions of people and infrastructure and everything. But they still won in the end due to their bigger population, bigger strategic depth.

What is the goal here for Iran? Its to survive Israel onslaught and cause enough damage to have peace. That's it.

Their nuclear plants are still intact which was the primary goal of Israel. So every thing else Israel is hitting is completely pointless.

What is Israel losing is a functioning economy. They are also losing their factories, their ports, their universities.

Ultimately Iran can take 10 times more blows than what Israel can take.

The moment Iranian population galvanized behind the government, this war was won by Iran. Nothing else matters now. I don't know how you guys expect so called regime change to happen in Iran because it ain't happening via any kind of uprising or coup. So, unless US and Israel invades Iran, which they can't, they can't do regime change.
 

delfer

New Member
Registered Member
I’m getting Nazi Germany vibes from Israel right now.

Just like Germany in WW2, Israel is essentially trying to knock down every country that stands in its way with shock, blitzkrieg tactics, and absolutely refuses to stop for anyone. It’s almost as if they legitimately want to take over the entire world.

They are also similarly nationalistic, and extremely dehumanizing towards anyone different from them.


This could be one of the most important battles of the century, and if Iran surrenders now, it will greatly affect the Middle East, and perhaps even the world, for years to come.
 
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Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member
It's amazing to how people throughout history always manage to convince themselves you can get population to turn against their government by launching unprovoked attack on them.

Countries start wars to distract from internal disapproval, countries spends enormous efforts creating casus belli to not look like the aggressor to prevent internal disapproval, Israel didn't bother with any of that and gave Iran the best political stabilizer you can possible get.

Israel just burned decades of work fomenting dissent inside Iran, this is all hard power now.
But this is how past empires fell. Basically they kept losing battle after battle which humiliated it's people and nation.

So eventually they thought why should I support the current government who I'm paying taxes and my children to if they cannot even defend us from foreigners? They have failed to show competency so there should be a change in decision makers! And that's how you have uprisings that overthrew the rulers.

Sure Iran and it's ppl will still hate Israel. But they will have changed the government which is what Israel wants. Any significant change for the short period will weaken a nation until it gets used to it's new version.

That's why you should never appoint generals or military decision makers by connections over competency. The costs of losing fights is very large.
 

Mmmeeeto

Junior Member
Registered Member
Its funny to see people here oscillate between depression during daytime, when Israel attacks vs joy at night time when Iran attacks.

We have seen massive amount of Iranian missiles getting through in Israel. So, it's pretty obvious they have hit significant targets inside Israel too.

So I don't understand the complaint really. What is that you guys want. Yes, Iran had intelligence failures which has cost them a lot. But they also have huge strategic depth and hit they can swallow.

Soviet Union also blunder in the beginning of ww2 and they lost millions of people and infrastructure and everything. But they still won in the end due to their bigger population, bigger strategic depth.

What is the goal here for Iran? Its to survive Israel onslaught and cause enough damage to have peace. That's it.

Their nuclear plants are still intact which was the primary goal of Israel. So every thing else Israel is hitting is completely pointless.

What is Israel losing is a functioning economy. They are also losing their factories, their ports, their universities.

Ultimately Iran can take 10 times more blows than what Israel can take.

The moment Iranian population galvanized behind the government, this war was won by Iran. Nothing else matters now.
I think the most realistic thing iran can do is settle for a deal to end this war for now (if they can)

Iran will never acquire a nuclear bomb in this global landscape. US and Israel will simply never allow this to happen

They should wait patiently until the global dynamic shifts which I don't this is very far off from now
 

texx1

Junior Member
Israeli stock market actually rose since the war. There were no wide swings in the financial market. Banking services are functioning normally shrugging off any impact of Iranian attack.

Iran really needs to increase the tempo or scale of its retaliation in order to have any chance of re-establishing deterrence.

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Tel Aviv shares gain as economy stays open amid Israel-Iran attacks

JERUSALEM, June 15 (Reuters) - Tel Aviv stocks erased early losses and ended higher on Sunday in the first trading session since the start of a wave of missile strikes between Israel and Iran on Friday, as Israel and its economy attempt to remain as open as possible.

The blue-chip Tel Aviv 35 index closed up 0.5% while the broader TA-125 index ended 0.4% higher, reversing earlier losses of nearly 2%.

"This is proof of Israel’s economic resilience — even under fire," said Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
 

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
But this is how past empires fell. Basically they kept losing battle after battle which humiliated it's people and nation.

So eventually they thought why should I support the current government who I'm paying taxes and my children to if they cannot even defend us from foreigners? They have failed to show competency so there should be a change in decision makers! And that's how you have uprisings that overthrew the rulers.

Sure Iran and it's ppl will still hate Israel. But they will have changed the government which is what Israel wants. Any significant change for the short period will weaken a nation until it gets used to it's new version.
If there is regime change happening due to a public uprising, it's because the public is frustrated, want something better and that never happens while an active war is going on. Reminder that none of the regime changes we have seen in the middle east, happened when the west actively attacked them. Saddam stayed until US troops was in Baghdad.
 
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