2020/2021 Tokyo Summer Olympics

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foxmulder

Junior Member
Phead128 said:
Actually, China is performing exactly as expected medals (+/-0), US is worse than expected medals (-15), Japan is much worse than expected (-17), while "Russian Moscow" is performing WAYY above expectation (+20).

Japan was predicted to be #3, looks like they might end up behind "Russian Moscow" and possibly UK.

India wins the Gold Medal for "Consistency Zero medals" discipline which make sense since Indian invented the concept of zero.

Source: Nate Silver's 538 Olympic projections.
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First I thought you were being sarcastic about Nate silver and his Olympics "projections".. hahahahaaa He just says what everyone knows in a semi-scientific way. I don't find his predictions anything to go by at all :)
 
Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
foxmulder said:
First I thought you were being sarcastic about Nate silver and his Olympics "projections".. hahahahaaa He just says what everyone knows in a semi-scientific way. I don't find his predictions anything to go by at all :)
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Olympic medal projections are based on performance rankings and results in recent Olympic competitions or annual world-championships, so it's more results-based data that a bit more actionable than say Nate Silver's reliance on questionable polling data that has low-response rate, sampling biases, reliance on land-line respondents, etc...
 
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