I am surprised by high medal counts from both China and Japan. I would have expected Japan to cannibalize some medals from China since they are strong in broadly similar sports. Other east asian countries are also making strong showings, with multiple countries getting first gold medals or first medals. I can't confirm, but logically the medal collapse should be coming from Europe/North America.
It wouldn't be surprising if China came 1-2 with Japan considering what we have seen so far, I'm more intrigued by the possibility US might only come 3rd.